This earnings season has already seen some big moves among the largest companies in the world. Multiple stocks have gained or lost 10% or more, which isn't surprising considering the market has been irrational with some stocks heading into earnings.
However, I think the biggest shock of earnings season will come on Aug. 26 when Nvidia (NVDA +1.20%) reports its fiscal second-quarter earnings.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang tends to drop major bombshells and outperform expectations, and I expect more of the same in Q2. This could be the very news Nvidia needs to kick-start its stock, as 2026 hasn't been a very good year for shareholders.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. Image source: Nvidia Corporation.
Nvidia has a track record of crushing expectations
Nvidia is no stranger to blowing expectations out of the water. For Q1, which ended April 26, Nvidia told investors to expect $78 billion in revenue. Then, it delivered nearly $82 billion in revenue. For Q2, it told investors to expect $91 billion in revenue. Wall Street analysts are aware of this game, and have an average projection of $91.9 billion -- which is within Nvidia's 2% margin of error for its guidance. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if Nvidia reports revenue of nearly $95 billion, allowing it to say that it doubled its revenue year over year.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
That would be a major bombshell and continue Huang's pattern of underpromising and overdelivering. This could ignite the stock, as it's valued at a lower level.
Because Nvidia is growing at such a rapid pace, the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is the best valuation tool. Nvidia trades at a low-20s forward P/E range from time to time, but never this late into the year. Normally, by August, it's trading for more than 35 times forward earnings, but not this year.
NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts
I think the market is discounting that AI data centers will continue to be built for years to come, which will provide a strong tailwind for Nvidia's business. Should Nvidia report a blowout quarter on Aug. 26, I think the stock could easily rise into the range of 30 times forward earnings, which would result in the stock nearly doubling. While I doubt that will happen overnight, a significant move followed by earnings followed by a strong rally is entirely possible.
All of the language from the AI hyperscalers points to Nvidia having multiple strong years of growth ahead. Investors should use that to their advantage and take a position in Nvidia's stock while it's still cheap.
