Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -0.64%), better known as SpaceX, went public on June 12 with enormous expectations, but its first couple of months of trading have been anything but smooth. As of Aug. 25, the stock has dropped by about 39% from its all-time high of $225.64 a share. It now trades less than 3% higher than its IPO price of $135 per share, and since early July, it has largely traded below the $150 per share at which it opened its first day of trading on the Nasdaq.
The tech stock has been all over the chart, with an early August dip to just below $105. That said, even if it delivers aggressive revenue growth over the next year, it isn't out of the question for the share price to drop below $100 by 2028.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
SpaceX stock in 2028: A bull and bear case
Let's be clear: SpaceX as a company wouldn't need to implode for its stock to lose substantial value from here. It could actually increase revenue significantly, yet still wind up with a lower market cap.
How does that work? One issue the stock's current valuation. Even after dipping into the $130s, SpaceX carries a roughly $1.8 trillion market cap, putting it among the 10 largest publicly traded companies in the world. The stock trades at about 63 times sales and 14 times book value. Both are lofty premiums by any traditional standard.
That said, many analysts expect the company to crank out substantially more revenue. This year, consensus estimates put SpaceX's revenue at about $45 billion, a 141% increase from 2025, while the same analysts predict 2027 revenue will jump to $105 billion. At the higher end of the range, some analysts predict up to $151 billion in 2027 revenue, while estimates on the lower end expect roughly $52 billion that year.
Suppose we begin with the consensus revenue estimate for 2027: $105 billion. If the stock were to trade at 63 times sales in 2028, then SpaceX would command a market cap of $6.6 trillion. Assuming its share count stayed the same, that would imply a share price of $500, or almost four times its current price.
However, that would be highly unlikely. The company would have to undergo several extraordinary developments for investors to support that multi-trillion valuation. This outcome is not impossible, but it's probably not going to happen.
But now, let's say, for the sake of argument, that SpaceX is hit with the opposite sentiment: Instead of exuberance, a disenchanting sense of frustration deflates the space stock. Suppose, then, investors are willing to pay not 63 times sales but something closer to 12 times sales. That would still be twice the price-to-sale ratio of the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index. With $105 billion in sales, SpaceX stock would be worth about $95 per share -- a 31% decline from today.
That would be the bear case (an extreme one), and it would require extraordinary developments in a negative sense. Again, not impossible, but not likely.
I think a more realistic estimate would see SpaceX reaching about $160 per share by 2028. If revenue hit $105 billion in 2027, then SpaceX would be trading at about 20 times sales. The company would command a roughly $2 trillion market cap, implying about an 18% increase from today.
That would be a decent gain, but it would be far from a millionaire-maker type of result. Overall, these calculations point to a sobering truth: Substantial expected growth is already priced into SpaceX stock. As a result, investors should approach it with the expectation of modest long-term gains.
