In a period of just three days in August, Bitcoin (BTC +0.06%) soared by more than 20%. At one point, the world's most popular cryptocurrency briefly topped $81,000 before pulling back to $80,000.
As a result, there's now increasing speculation that Bitcoin might be able to hit a price of $100,000 by the end of this year. But just how likely is that scenario?
Change in crypto sentiment
Bitcoin's recent gains can be chalked up to a change in investor sentiment. The easiest way to see this is in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index. After being in "fear" territory for most of the summer, it suddenly tipped into "extreme greed" territory in mid-August.
Image source: Getty Images.
That change in sentiment has everything to do with a high-level crypto event at the White House on Aug. 19. At the event, President Donald Trump gave his full support to an important piece of new crypto legislation, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act ("Clarity Act"). He also hinted that the U.S. government might start accumulating Bitcoin for the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
That's what led to the quick gain of 20% in the price of Bitcoin. As a result, money started to flow back into spot Bitcoin ETFs, and they recorded their best week since October 2025.
Catalysts for Bitcoin
The only problem, of course, is that nothing has fundamentally changed in the investment thesis for Bitcoin. Everything is based on a change in sentiment and a new appetite for risk.
For example, there have been no major announcements about a new blockchain upgrade. There is no Bitcoin halving event coming up anytime soon. And Bitcoin treasury companies are still cutting back on the amount of Bitcoin they are willing to buy.
The primary catalyst for Bitcoin appears to be the possible passage of the Clarity Act. This will make it easier for individuals and institutions to buy, hold, and trade Bitcoin. And it will remove all the regulatory gray areas around Bitcoin. But isn't all that already priced in?
Data from prediction markets
To answer that question, it's helpful to take a closer look at data from online prediction markets. The market that I'm most interested in is the following: "When Will Bitcoin Cross $100K Again?"
On Kalshi, traders are giving Bitcoin a 5% chance of hitting $100,000 by October, a 16% chance of hitting $100,000 before November, an 18% chance of hitting $100,000 before December, and a 30% chance of hitting $100,000 by January 2027.
Most likely, Bitcoin will end the year below $100,000. On Kalshi, traders are giving Bitcoin a roughly 30% chance of ending the year somewhere between $80,000 and $100,000. Bitcoin has a 45% chance of ending the year below $80,000 and only a 25% chance of ending the year above $100,000.
So if you're thinking about buying Bitcoin, keep your expectations in check. Crypto sentiment can be fickle, and if the Clarity Act fizzles out, Bitcoin may not be the slam-dunk investment it appears to be right now.
