Bitcoin (BTC +0.71%) may be up more than 25% in August as I write this, but billionaire investor Mark Cuban is not impressed. He said last week that he's convinced that Bitcoin's recent run-up in price is unsustainable, the result of a temporary short squeeze in the market.
Back in May, Cuban announced that he was selling all his Bitcoin because it had "lost the plot." According to Cuban, Bitcoin wasn't working as a financial hedge, it wasn't a real alternative to gold, and it was no longer a reliable safe haven asset.
These are all very good reasons to sell Bitcoin. But there's one major plot twist in the ongoing Bitcoin saga that Mark Cuban might have overlooked.
Is Bitcoin a risk-on or a risk-off asset?
Cuban's bearish case against Bitcoin primarily rests on the thesis that, more often than not, it acts as a risk-off asset. In other words, it's a place to put your money when there's a major macroeconomic or geopolitical crisis.
Image source: Getty Images.
That's why some crypto investors refer to Bitcoin as "digital gold." Even former Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell bought into this argument, famously referring to Bitcoin as digital gold back in December 2024.
So it's easy to see why Cuban has given up on Bitcoin. Shouldn't Bitcoin be soaring in price amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine? Shouldn't the price of Bitcoin be going absolutely bonkers now that the U.S. government is dealing with a $40 trillion debt load? Back in May, it wasn't. And that's why Cuban said Bitcoin had "lost the plot."
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
However, there's more to this story. Asset management giant BlackRock (BLK -0.27%) continues to make the case that Bitcoin can behave like both a "risk-on" and a "risk-off" asset. In a recent report detailing how Bitcoin can be used as a low-correlation portfolio diversifier -- one not moving in sync with the broader market -- BlackRock highlighted the dual nature of Bitcoin: At times, Bitcoin can act like a safe haven asset (such as gold). At other times, it can act like a risk asset (such as a high-beta tech stock). That's the dual nature of Bitcoin, and it helps to explain why Bitcoin has increased so much in value since its launch.
What comes next for Bitcoin?
The plot twist here is that it looks like Bitcoin is about to go back to becoming a "risk-on" asset. (Risk-on assets are in favor when investors want to take on risk.) And investors are going to flock to it, because they will be convinced it has the potential to deliver life-changing returns over the next few years.
Coinbase Global (COIN -6.33%) CEO Brian Armstrong, for example, thinks the Bitcoin bottom is in. Bitcoin is now about to rip higher, and could hit a price of $400,000 by 2030, he has said.
If history is any guide, that could actually happen. Bitcoin has always been highly cyclical, and it now appears to be entering the bull market phase of that cycle. That's a plot twist that perhaps Mark Cuban does not see coming.
