Warehouse club Costco Wholesale (COST -0.07%) reports earnings after market close on Thursday. Analysts have high hopes for the company, projecting revenue of about $94.9 billion and earnings per share of between $6.53 and $6.55. But the real question is whether the stock is worth buying ahead of earnings. And its recent history offers a clear answer.
Here's the clear historical trend you should know about before you consider buying Costco shares ahead of earnings.
Image source: Getty Images.
A clear two-year trend
I looked at the history of Costco's share price over the last two years, and was shocked by what I found.
Since September 2024, Costco has issued eight quarterly earnings reports. And the stock has dropped after six of them:
Data by YCharts.
Even worse, the only two earnings reports that didn't precede a clear drop were in June 2025 and March 2026. Even then, the results were "inconclusive."
June 2025 featured a small drop, followed by a medium pop, followed by a large decline. In March 2026, the stock had a small immediate drop followed by a small pop that left the share price largely unchanged.
NASDAQ: COST
Key Data Points
You'd have to go all the way back to June 2024 to find a clear post-earnings increase in Costco's share price. That's one of the clearest trends I've ever seen.
I think Costco is an excellent long-term buy-and-hold stock, but if recent history is any guide, investors will probably be able to pick up shares for a lower price after its earnings report. I wouldn't worry about rushing out to buy shares before the 24th: I'd wait to see what Thursday's report brings.
