Robinhood Markets (HOOD -1.20%) closed at a record $152.46 on Oct. 9, 2025, under three weeks after the online broker entered the S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.19%). It hasn't closed as high since. At roughly $112 as I write, the stock would have to gain about 36% to get back there.
I think it gets there before the end of 2028.
That forecast doesn't depend on investors growing more excited about the growth stock. It depends on Robinhood's earnings, which would have to compound at around 18% a year -- lower than the 31% earnings-per-share growth the company posted in 2025.
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About $4 a share
Shares now trade at around 38 times the earnings analysts expect Robinhood to report for 2027. Keep that price-to-earnings ratio flat (without any expansion), and the stock can climb no faster than the earnings investors are looking ahead to.
By late 2028, investors should be pricing the stock on what Robinhood can earn in 2029. A $152.46 stock price at that same 38 times earnings means about $4 in 2029 earnings per share.
Robinhood made $2.05 per share in 2025. So it has to almost double its earnings per share over four years, which is around 18% yearly growth.
The bar rises quickly if the price-to-earnings ratio falls, though. At 30 times earnings, the record would require about $5 in 2029 earnings per share, or growth closer to 25% a year.
Earnings growth looks fast enough
Robinhood's earnings per share grew from $1.56 in 2024 to $2.05 in 2025, a 31% gain. And the 2024 number included one-time benefits worth $0.47 per share, mainly from a tax benefit. Without those, earnings per share rose about 88% last year.
In the first half of 2026, earnings per share climbed another 27% year over year, to $1.00. Granted, that number includes $0.14 per share of gains, mainly from taking a Robinhood-run venture fund off the company's books in the second quarter. Without those gains, earnings per share rose around 9%.
But the second quarter showed how growth could speed back up. Transaction-based revenue climbed 44% year over year, as event contracts (Robinhood's prediction-market product) pulled in $156 million. This helped total revenue rise 32% to $1.31 billion, more than double the first quarter's growth rate of 15%.
Management also cut its 2026 outlook for non-GAAP (adjusted) operating expenses and stock-based compensation to a range of $2.675 billion to $2.775 billion. That works out to an increase of about 18% to 22% from 2025's $2.27 billion, even with two recently added businesses included. And first-half revenue rose 24%. If revenue keeps outpacing costs, earnings can grow faster than revenue.
And the third quarter seems to have started well. In August, stock trading volume jumped 68% year over year and options contracts traded climbed 50%, according to the company's monthly operating data.
What could break the forecast?
The clearest risk is a slowdown in the money customers put in. Net deposits (the money customers move onto the platform, minus what they pull out) were at a 14% annualized rate in August, half the 28% pace of the second quarter. Second-quarter crypto revenue, meanwhile, dropped 38% year over year.
Also, second-quarter net interest revenue climbed just 9%, since lower short-term interest rates and softer securities lending revenue partly offset growth in margin loans and credit card balances. And prediction markets, Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue source, face lawsuits linked to state gambling laws.
The other risk is the valuation itself. Robinhood's valuation of around 38 times expected earnings is about three times what investors pay for Charles Schwab, priced at about 12 times what analysts think it'll earn in 2027.
NASDAQ: HOOD
Key Data Points
Investors usually pay a price-to-earnings ratio that high only when growth stays fast. If Robinhood's earnings growth fell into the single digits for a stretch, the stock could lose its premium even as earnings climb.
Will Robinhood stock close over $152.46 before 2029? I think so. Sure, the business needs several more years of strong earnings growth. But it's grown faster than that before, and the second quarter suggests it might be speeding up again.
Still, my prediction says more about the business than about the stock as an investment. Getting back to the record means the stock climbing around 14% a year from here, and that's if investors still pay about 38 times earnings when it gets there.
I think that asks too much of the stock at today's price.
