Jamie Dimon is CEO of JPMorgan Chase (JPM +0.39%), the largest bank in America, so when he starts talking about trouble in the bond market, it's worth listening. The bond market is showing some signs of stress. U.S. Treasury bond yields have been surging. The 10-year Treasury recently hit its highest yield in 24 years.
Higher bond yields can be a sign of trouble in the bond market (and stock market) because they mean that bond investors are demanding higher yields to compensate for the risks and opportunity costs of holding bonds. Higher Treasury yields could be seen as a sign that bond market investors are losing confidence in the U.S. government's ability to repay its debt.
In a recent interview, Dimon offered a warning about a different type of debt: corporate bonds, issued by corporate borrowers. Dimon is concerned that rising bond yields could spill over into a crisis for corporate credit -- which could have bad consequences for the stock market, the economy, and everyday life.
Let's look closer at Dimon's bond market warning, and what it might mean for your investments.
Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEO. Image source: JPMorgan Chase.
Dimon's warning: The bond market "will ask for more"
In a recent interview published by Yahoo Finance, Dimon said, "There will be a point where the market will ask for more and more and more, and yeah, at one point that'll feed into corporate debt, corporate credit spreads, and things like that, which is how it normally happens."
The "it" he's referring to here is a global bond market sell-off. Think of this like a stock market crash, but for bonds. A bond sell-off means bond prices go lower -- and bond yields go higher. Basically, it means the global bond market decides that bonds are getting too risky and too expensive -- so investors refuse to buy more debt, which drives up the cost of borrowing for everyone.
If higher borrowing costs cause some companies to struggle to repay their debts or to refinance their existing debt, this could lead to corporate bond defaults, business failures, credit downgrades, job losses, and more widespread economic damage.
Reasons to worry about the bond market
U.S. Treasury bond yields are often looked at as a sign of the bond market's overall health. But Treasury bonds aren't the only game in town. Artificial intelligence (AI) hyperscalers are currently borrowing hundreds of billions of dollars to buy semiconductors and build AI data centers. These massive amounts of corporate debt are creating more competition in the bond market.
Bond investors can choose how to allocate their money, and they don't have to buy Treasury bonds. Some investors prefer to buy bonds from highly profitable tech companies like Alphabet, Meta Platforms, or Microsoft. High-quality investment-grade corporate debt from companies like these often pays a higher yield than U.S. Treasuries, while being seen as not much riskier. This can make these corporate bonds more attractive to investors, causing U.S. Treasury bond prices to fall -- and Treasury bond yields to rise.
The recent turmoil in the bond market can be seen in the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND +0.04%). This popular bond ETF holds Treasuries, investment-grade corporate bonds, and a mix of other bonds. But despite this diversification, it's delivered total returns of negative 2.72% year to date and negative 3.45% over the past three months.
NASDAQ: BND
Key Data Points
If we are heading for a bond market crisis, investment-grade bond funds like BND won't be safe, but they will likely avoid the worst of the pain. The problem is: What about companies that don't have such a high credit rating, that aren't so profitable and financially strong?
If borrowing costs rise too high, this could cause serious financial stress for other companies with debt rated below investment grade, also known as "junk bonds." A bond market sell-off could also cause a stock market crash. We're not there yet, but Jamie Dimon is worth listening to.
