Micron Technology (MU -4.08%) has been one of the best-performing stocks on Wall Street in 2026 -- it was up 230% year to date as of Oct. 13. The concern among investors is that the memory market has long been highly cyclical. When demand for memory chips surges, prices and profit margins rise, and all the manufacturers start to build fabs to boost their production and take advantage.
Then, a few years later, as all of those new fabs come online, supply surges. Often, those surges have coincided with cyclical slumps in demand, and the resulting oversupply swiftly drives prices and profit margins back down.
Recently, analysts at Bernstein laid out a projection for the memory market to follow a similar scenario in this cycle. It forecasts prices for dynamic random access memory (DRAM) will rise by another 43% in 2027, but then drop by 53% in 2028.
However, based on an important detail in Micron's latest earnings call, the next phase of this memory cycle is shaping up to look quite different from prior ones.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
During its fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter earnings call on Sept. 30, Micron reported that it now has 26 strategic customer agreements (SCAs) that run through at least 2030. That's up from 16 SCAs as of the Q3 call. It estimates that these contracts will account for over 35% of its revenue through 2030.
SCAs provide a degree of pricing protection that Micron has never had before. Three-quarters of the estimated SCA revenue has price-band frameworks in place, with minimum and maximum prices. What it will charge for the remaining quarter of sales will be negotiated periodically with its customers based on prevailing market prices.
Financial commitments from customers also increased in fiscal Q4 to $32 billion, with most of that coming in the form of cash deposits. That's reflected in Micron's balance sheet, which now includes $12.9 billion in customer contract liabilities, up from $568 million in May.
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Key Data Points
Micron isn't completely insulated from downturns in the memory market. With SCAs accounting for over 35% of revenue through 2030 and a quarter of estimated revenue still subject to market prices, roughly 74% of its sales will still be rapidly influenced by shifts in the supply-and-demand dynamic. But Micron is clearly in a strong position, and it's leveraging that to lock in pricing commitments, including some deals that already extend beyond 2030.
The real test will come the next time memory prices fall. My prediction for Micron is that it will continue to add SCAs and keep a meaningful portion of its revenue cushioned from the memory cycle, both of which will make it a more resilient business.
