If there were a Cooperstown for the business world, I'm pretty sure we'd see a picture of a smiling Sam Walton hanging there. Not only is the extraordinary success of Wal-Mart
Of course, not only do we now live in a much different world than when Walton was setting up the first Wal-Mart stores, but we live in a much different world than just a few years ago. While this new world of less debt and more savings is bad for many businesses, it is exactly the kind of environment that brings customers in droves to Wal-Mart.
The members of The Motley Fool's CAPS community haven't totally overlooked Wal-Mart -- there are more than 5,300 outperform ratings on the stock -- but quite a few CAPS members think the stock's current price makes it less attractive than many other stocks out there.
The last laugh so far, though, has been had by the Wal-Mart bulls, and none more so than current Wal-Mart score leader ar97dra. This community member made a smart underperform pick on Wal-Mart in 2006, but then turned positive in the summer of 2007, racking up 50 points between then and the fall of last year, as the stock moved in the opposite direction as the slumping S&P 500.
ar97dra is one of CAPS' All-Stars -- players with a rating of 80 or greater -- and has managed an impressive stock-picking accuracy of 64% while racking up nearly 600 points. Wal-Mart isn't this player's only great call. Here's a look at a few of the other prescient picks:
|
Company |
Date Picked |
Call |
Points |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Netflix |
8/24/07 |
Outperform |
177 |
** |
|
Navteq |
8/21/06 |
Outperform |
150 |
NA |
|
Interstate Bakery |
3/13/07 |
Underperform |
73 |
NA |
Data from CAPS.
Navteq was acquired by Nokia
So what is this investor looking at these days? Here are a few of the most recent calls on CAPS:
|
Company |
Date Picked |
Call |
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
Johnson & Johnson |
6/1/09 |
Outperform |
***** |
|
MedcoHealth Solutions |
6/1/09 |
Outperform |
**** |
|
Pharmaceutical Product Development |
5/5/09 |
Outperform |
***** |
Data from CAPS.
While not all of these picks may pan out, they could be a good place to start further research. I decided to take a closer look at Johnson & Johnson.
Some health care for your portfolio
It seems pretty obvious from ar97dra's last three picks that this All-Star is looking to ride the health-care gravy train. And what a gravy train it's been. While the S&P 500 index has slumped more than 30% over the past year, the healthcare tag on CAPS has been the best-performing group of stocks, with a gain of more than 50%!
While the overall performance of that health-care grouping has had some major help from small biopharma stocks like Keryx Biopharmaceuticals, even large stocks like Johnson & Johnson and Novartis
But will the outperformance continue? Making statements about the entire collection of health-care stocks is tough because some of them have notched some pretty high valuations as investors fled to their perceived safety. Johnson & Johnson, however, is not among that group.
I gave J&J's stock a thumbs-up back in late January, as the company has a very stable and reliable base of business. The stock not only trades at a low-double-digit multiple, but it also pays a healthy dividend. It'd be silly to expect rocket-ship-type gains from this giant health-care player, but as the tortoise taught us, sometimes slow and steady wins the race.
CAPS member HanumanTMK recently saw many of the things that I did in J&J and joined the 11,574 other bulls on CAPS, pitching:
With a solid dividend, great debt to equity and a place in an industry with a solid future, why not go long. I think we're priced too low right now and can expect a good rebound, while the dividend adds the whip cream on top.
But here's the important question: What's your take on Johnson & Johnson? Will it show its strength in the face of recession? Get in the action by clicking over to CAPS. CAPS is absolutely free and already has more than135,000 stock pickers chipping in to find the best stocks out there.
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