The Motley Fool's CAPS investing service is one of the newest additions to the investing community at Fool.com, and it's another great way for investors to work together to beat the market. One of the features in CAPS allows users to set up a blog to talk about their picks, investing strategy, market view, or their favorite baseball team (if they so desire).
I'm back again this week to bring you some more of the great content coming from the Fools who have taken advantage of their CAPS blogs.
In equities, nothing is a GIVN
The first blog of the week comes from a CAPS All-Star and repeat guest on Blog Buzz, drugncover. Here we find some thoughts on an interesting biotech story, Given Imaging
Given Imaging is a stock that I barely managed to get away with a positive score on. ... I thought it was a slam dunk underperform, and obviously was proved wrong. After doing some work, I have some theories as to why[.]
First, their business is not a great story. They invented a camera in a pill, to take pictures of the colon. All-in-all a great device product that I think will become very popular. The problem is sales have grown well, but not superbly. ... Added to the picture Olympus, one of the biggest, toughest, meanest medical device supply companies on earth is coming into the market with their own version. It looks like [Given] doesn't have the [intellectual property] to prevent other competitors, ones with bigger sales, a basket of products, and stronger infrastructure from stealing the market they make.
Despite all this, they sell at 43 times their forward earnings [and] 8 [times] their sales... Looks like an over-valued stock if ever I've seen one. Their quarterly earnings still seem anemic... so why isn't it going down?
The key I think lies in Retail versus Institutional. [Given] only has 30% of its shares in institutional hands, which is very low for a $700+ [million] market cap company. I think the extensive press this company got in 2003-04 brought a large number of retailers into the picture. It seems a like a classic case where a large number of high net worth individuals keep this stock flush with holders, maintaining the price, where buy-side institutions who do a lot of due diligence avoid the thing. Seems like a blow-up in the making, but the question is when? I'm sorely tempted to get back in as an underperform at this higher price (26ish) but worry.
I like this stock, because it taught me that many stocks do not behave in a rational manner.
You can find more from drugncover here.
Two summer trades that I think will work ...
Our second stop brings us to another CAPS All-Star, WyattKaldenberg. He gives us a pair of calls that he thinks will pay off this summer.
I have two summer trades I think will work: Cabela's
(NYSE:CAB)and Hercules Offshore (NASDAQ:HERO).
[Cabela's] has two seasonal markets. It sells winter sports and summer sports. The spring quarter is always poor, because there are no spring sports to speak of.
Last quarter, [Cabela's] missed by a penny and the stock fell like a dead wet bird. But of course the quarter was bad, it was off season. It always does badly in the spring and it does well in the summer, fall, and winter.
Now here comes summer. People are starting to buy camping gear, water sports equipment, fishing poles, hunting gear, baseball bats to play with the kids in the park ...
I think the next three [quarters] will be winners. I would be shocked if [Cabela's] stock isn't well [above] $25 by the end of summer.
Pick two is [Hercules Offshore]. [Hercules] sells for a P/E of around 8 the last time I looked.
[Hercules] will buy TODCO
(NYSE:THE). Two good companies rolled up into one. ... I think [Hercules] will have a great next [quarter].
However, the real reason to buy [Hercules] is hurricane season. The weather people say this will be a bad hurricane season. What does [Hercules] do? It services off-shore rigs in the Gulf of Mexico. Who makes money when off-shore rigs [are] getting hit? [Hercules].
(NYSE:APA)got hit the hardest during Katrina. However, [Hercules] was making money hand over fist servicing Apache and others.
I think if the Gulf gets hit hard again, [Hercules] could go up over $10 just on the work from the bad weather. [Hercules] is my global warming play.
You can check out more from WyattKaldenberg here.
Investing and losing weight: same principle ...
And, as always, finishing out with some fun, I've got a great investing metaphor from the blog of yet another CAPS All-Star, MarkBDow.
... They tell us now that if you really want to lose weight you should weigh yourself less frequently and be more aware of which clothes you fit into. As the size of the clothing decreases, you have the evidence of your success, even before you check the scales.
I find that when I invest comfortably and according to principle, I can walk away and not worry about the immediate result. I don't need to check the market daily -- sometimes once monthly is OK. I can be comfortable in knowing that my plan is being executed in exactly the way that I devised it and that I will be a winner over the long haul.
Conversely, when I actually do get on the scales daily (sorry, I meant check the market), I find that my anxiety level goes up. I find myself worrying about each and every one of the little dips in the market and wondering if I should sell because I made some money in one of the securities.
Ultimately, I'm better off investing and "forgetting". Just make a plan, fund the plan and execute the plan and then wait for the results (at least wait long enough to give the plan a fighting chance). I guess patience really does pay.
Go ahead and check out some more of MarkBDow's thoughts here.
Now it's your turn -- get off the sidelines, join CAPS, and start up your own CAPS blog to share your own knowledge and insights with the rest of the CAPS universe.
Fool contributor Matt Koppenheffer shares some thoughts of his own on his CAPS blog. He does not own shares of any of the companies mentioned. The Fool's disclosure policy does not have its own CAPS blog, but if it did, it would blow your mind.