Even when things look really bad and are getting worse, I still look for silver linings, even if it means only partial implosion rather than complete disaster. As a long-term shareholder of GPS maker Garmin (NASDAQ:GRMN), I'm wondering if the decay in the markets -- which will undoubtedly herald a long period of lower spending -- might save the company from a costly mistake.
Don't get me wrong, the company will certainly suffer -- its shares have already been slapped down almost 75% this year. But I'm hoping to see a strong follow-through from Garmin in making operational changes to accommodate this new environment. The company already has major inventory issues to rectify, but Garmin has also been barreling down a path to capture some of the magic in the smartphone segment spawned by Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone.
I'm hoping the brutal market has the GPS king rethinking this effort. Once believed to be a good thing for shareholders -- where Garmin could grab a major trend to expand and diversify its revenue -- this could become a major drag on earnings. The touchscreen nuvifone was announced at the start of this year to stack up against devices from Nokia (NYSE:NOK), Research In Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) and Apple. But its launch has been delayed into 2009 as more work is being done to test it on wireless networks.
Bottom line, I just can't see how the launch of a pricey navigation device and phone in today's market can be a success. Even with cool features such as Garmin's navigation and Google's (NASDAQ:GOOG) local search application, most consumers will likely buy on price, if they buy at all. And unless the carrier -- be it AT&T (NYSE:T) or Verizon (NYSE:VZ) -- offers a huge subsidy to bring the price down below a few Franklins, the mainstream market will be out of reach.
So I'm hoping to hear some frank discussion from Garmin leadership in its earnings announcement near the end of the month. At this point, I think it's better for the company to take these chips off the table. With a trailing P/E of just 6, the stock is priced for implosion -- a pessimistic bar I think the company can easily outperform long-term without the risk of a major new product investment.
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Fool contributor Dave Mock was disappointed by the false advertising of the local flea market. He owns shares of Garmin, which is also a Global Gains pick. Nokia is an Inside Value recommendation. Google is a Rule Breakers selection. Garmin and Apple are Stock Advisor recommendations. The Fool's disclosure policy is better than Wonder Woman's lasso of truth.
