Investor Bill Miller seems befuddled. In his July 2010 commentary, he wonders why investors keep purchasing 10-year treasuries yielding about 3%, when companies like ExxonMobil offer much higher potential returns.
His formula for Exxon is straightforward: "A sum of the dividend yield, growth rate and share shrink could represent an attractive annual return even if the valuation stays the same, and the valuation is among the lowest the company has traded at in years." When you add up the components, Exxon could offer 16.4% returns per year in a low-return environment.
I'm no less baffled than Miller by investors' preference for bonds, but I do think he's on to something. To see whether more Miller-like opportunities like Exxon were out there, I looked for companies with:
- A dividend yield greater than the 3% 10-year treasury yield.
- A five-year track record of dividend growth.
- A history of repurchasing shares.
- A P/E less than 25.
Among location device and service providers, Garmin
|
Company |
Yield (%) |
5-Yr Dividend Growth |
Share Shrink |
P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Garmin |
5.1 |
43.1% |
1.1% |
8.9 |
|
Motorola |
0.0 |
0% |
0% |
48.6 |
|
TeleNav |
0.0 |
0% |
0.6% |
6.0 |
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.
From the table above, Garmin fits Miller's criteria perfectly. It pays a 5.1% dividend that has been growing 43.1%, on average, for the past five years. The company also trades at an attractive 8.9 times earnings and produces plenty of cash flow to repurchase shares. I can't say the same for competitors Motorola and TeleNav.
Foolish bottom line
Would Bill Miller consider investing in Garmin? It meets all the criteria above, and with that dividend and dividend growth, it could offer a nice return over time -- although it will be hard for the company to maintain such blistering dividend growth. In today's low-return environment, that's pretty attractive. I don't know why the market is offering up this opportunity, but as long as it is, Garmin could be worth pursuing further.
