Technically, Corning Is a Buy

Technically, you should buy Corning (NYSE: GLW) right now.

We examined the company using moving average convergence-divergence, which is one of the most popular and long-used technical analysis indicators. Technical analysis is the field of buying and selling stocks not based on the underlying merits of a company, but rather on the patterns and formulas around its price movements.

Signal line crossover is one of the more common ways to interpret MACD. It uses a series of moving averages (in this case, nine, 12, and 26 days) to look for bullish and bearish crossovers that indicate a stock has momentum in one direction or another. Below you can find a current chart of Corning's MACD profile:

Confused? Well, that's preposterous! How could you ever be confused by something as simplistic as a moving average convergence-divergence chart! OK, we're jesting -- but in all seriousness, this is actually one of the simpler methods for technical analysis.

Still, if you'd strictly followed the rules, seeking out upward and downward momentum, you would have seen the stock move between buy and sell categories a fantastic 17 times!

A better way to size up companies
Here at Fool.com we're more interested in other measures of company value. When we look at Corning and its peers, here are the areas that interest us:

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard and Poor's; TTM = trailing 12 months.

We prefer to look at the fundamental drivers of value. Investors should closely watch statistical fields like return on equity as well as qualitative values like competitive advantage and managerial effectiveness. These areas led investors like Warren Buffett and Seth Klarman to decades of outperformance. Buying and holding great companies is the best solution for individual investors to build lasting wealth and achieve their financial goals.

So when you look at Corning, don't evaluate it for crossing a momentum line. Buy or sell it because:

• Have you noticed that LCD glass use is exploding? From TVs to displays for advanced mobile displays, LCD is everywhere. That's great news for Corning. The company's expertise in manufacturing glass panels allows it to control two-thirds of the LCD market.
• In one of the greatest stories of being "ahead of its time," Corning's Gorilla Glass, which was actually created in the 1960s, is finally seeing commercial success. The product is only expected to see $250 million in sales this year, but it could reach $1 billion next year. With more high-tech products that need screen protection being cranked out, Corning is advantageously positioned to benefit in the coming years.
• While Corning might look extremely diversified based on its revenue streams, nearly all of its profits come from display technologies. Display technologies have been booming, but they're also heavily tied to the spending power of American consumers. With continuing fears over how sustainable a consumer spending bounce back is when unemployment hovers around 10%, investors need to be aware of Corning's exposure to a consumer rebound.

Want to buy Corning based on technical merits today? Technically, odds are that you should flip and sell Corning sometime very soon. If that sounds like madness to you, well, we here at the Fool.com agree. In every market decline, technical analysis gets its share of proponents. The cries that "buy-and-hold is dead!" get louder, and individuals race toward schemes that promise greater wealth in a shorter amount of time.

I don't deny that technical analysis could make investors money. In any random short-term transaction, you're essentially playing a 50/50 game of chance. However, at the same time, most technical analysis schemes are a relatively simple science, eliminating the vast complexities of evaluating true company value. However attractive, this theory is ultimately the wrong path for individual investors. Technical analysis relies on long-held beliefs about exploiting momentum and consistent patterns throughout the market.

However, with as much as 75% of market trading now done by Ph.D.-level programmers at massive high-frequency funds, even if opportunities existed, what chance would an individual have to sniff these deals out? With so much volume now driven by these funds, how can you be certain the same rules of patterns still even exist?

I could also point to Massey University's study across 49 countries, which showed that more than 5,000 trading rules add no value. However, the real reason to forget about technical investing is what we mentioned earlier: Corning crossed the crossover 17 times across the past year! While traders might not buy and sell with each crossing, cases of high momentum are normally short lived. The amount of trading in most technical analysis schemes racks up commission fees and short-term capital gains taxes, eating away at profits. More importantly, it takes away from the idea of holding a portfolio of great companies that can accrue wealth over a long time horizon.

That's why, at Fool.com, we recommend that individual investors establish a portfolio of well-managed companies with strong advantages over their competitors. In the end, we find that to be the best contributor to long-term wealth. More importantly, it'll spare you from sitting bleary-eyed in front of a computer with a Big Gulp full of coffee, frantically buying in and out of companies. But, hey, if your idea of protecting your future is charting the ups and downs of moving average convergence-divergence charts, then Corning looks like a buy right now. Just don't expect to hold it for very long.

Looking for stocks with great fundamentals that should outperform over the long-term? The Motley Fool is recommending 50 stocks in 50 days for its new "11 O'Clock Stock" series. For more information, click here. Then come back to Fool.com every single weekday at 11 a.m. ET for a brand new pick!