Numbers can lie -- but they're the best first step in determining whether a stock is a buy. In this series, we use some carefully chosen metrics to size up a stock's true value based on the following clues:
- The current price multiples
- The consistency of past earnings and cash flow
- How much growth we can expect
Let's see what those numbers can tell us about how cheap oil refiner Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) might be.
The current price multiples
First, we'll look at most investors' favorite metric: the P/E ratio. It divides the company's share price by its earnings per share (EPS) -- the lower, the better.
Then, we'll take things up a notch with a more advanced metric: enterprise value to unlevered free cash flow. This divides the company's enterprise value (basically, its market cap plus its debt, minus its cash) by its unlevered free cash flow (its free cash flow, adding back the interest payments on its debt). Like the P/E, the lower this number is, the better.
Analysts argue about which is more important -- earnings or cash flow. Who cares? A good buy ideally has low multiples on both.
Valero Energy has a negative P/E ratio and an EV/FCF ratio of 22.3 over the trailing 12 months. If we stretch and compare current valuations to the five-year averages for earnings and free cash flow, Valero Energy has a P/E ratio of 5.0 and a five-year EV/FCF ratio of 7.7.
A one-year ratio under 10 for both metrics is ideal. For a five-year metric, under 20 is ideal.
Valero Energy has a mixed performance in hitting the ideal targets, but let's see how it compares against some competitors and industry mates.
|
Company |
1-Year P/E |
1-Year EV/FCF |
5-Year P/E |
5-Year EV/FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Valero Energy |
NM |
22.3 |
5.0 |
7.7 |
|
Tesoro (NYSE: TSO) |
NM |
162.0 |
5.9 |
8.1 |
|
Holly (NYSE: HOC) |
83.4 |
NM |
10.0 |
110.4 |
|
Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) |
NM |
7.1 |
8.0 |
14.0 |
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; NM = not meaningful.
Numerically, we've seen how Valero Energy's valuation rates on both an absolute and relative basis. Next, let's examine...
The consistency of past earnings and cash flow
An ideal company will be consistently strong in its earnings and cash flow generation.
In the past five years, Valero Energy's net income margin has ranged from -2.6% to 7.3%. In that same time frame, unlevered free cash flow margin has ranged from -0.2% to 5.4%.
How do those figures compare with those of the company's peers? See for yourself:
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; margin ranges are combined.
Additionally, over the last five years, Valero Energy has tallied up three years of positive earnings and four years of positive free cash flow.
Next, let's figure out...
How much growth we can expect
Analysts tend to comically overstate their five-year growth estimates. If you accept them at face value, you will overpay for stocks. But while you should definitely take the analysts' prognostications with a grain of salt, they can still provide a useful starting point when compared to similar numbers from a company's closest rivals.
Let's start by seeing what this company's done over the past five years. In that time period, Valero Energy has put up past EPS growth rates that aren't meaningful due to negative earnings (it's not alone!). Meanwhile, Wall Street's analysts expect future growth rates of 14.2%.
Here's how Valero Energy compares it its peers for trailing five-year growth:
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; EPS growth shown.
And here's how it measures up with regard to the growth analysts expect over the next five years:
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; estimates for EPS growth.
The bottom line
The pile of numbers we've plowed through has shown us how cheap shares of Valero Energy are trading, how consistent its performance has been, and what kind of growth profile it has -- both on an absolute and a relative basis.
The more consistent a company's performance has been and the more growth we can expect, the more we should be willing to pay. We've gone well beyond looking at a negative P/E ratio.
You'll notice that Valero's five-year multiples are much more compelling than its recent ones. The same is true for its comparable companies. This speaks to the cyclicality of the refining industry. Due to the uncertainty with when -- or if? -- margins will recover, shares of Valero are off considerably from their highs. Valero has been on my watchlist for a while, and it's certainly worth a deeper look if you're inclined to dig into the industry.
Click here to add Valero to My Watchlist, and My Watchlist will find all of our Foolish analysis on this stock.
