I believe in growth stocks. As an analyst for our Motley Fool Rule Breakers service, I think you should be a believer, too. But even I have to admit that some growth stories are bogus -- hence this regular series.
Next up: SanDisk
|CAPS stars (out of 5)||****|
|Bullish pitches||328 out of 350|
|Highest rated peers||Synaptics, China Digital TV, EMC Corp.|
Data current as of Jan. 28.
SanDisk itself isn't sexy, but it operates in one of the sexiest areas of the tech market: mobile devices. The company's flash memory chips have become a staple for a new generation of tablets, smartphones, and related consumer electronics. Intel
Business has been good. Revenue rose 35% for the year, with earnings more than tripling from the previous fiscal year. In the fourth quarter alone, EPS improved 39% to $2.01 a share. The report added a strong ending to a smart prediction by my Foolish colleague Eric Jhonsa, who named SanDisk as his pick for the Best Tech Stock of 2010. The stock ended last year up 72%.
"Tech sector [is] just ramping up. The memory and storage sectors have room to grow with cloud computing advancing and more data centers getting upgraded. Solid-state drives are also entering the consumer market (e.g., retailers) with increasing strength," wrote Foolish investor Skyshark29 in November.
Fair enough, but expectations may have run ahead of reality in recent weeks. The stock fell more than 10% following the release of those strong fourth-quarter earnings. Year-to-date, shares of SanDisk are down about 9%.
The elements of growth
|Normalized net income growth||189.3%||Not measurable||Not measurable|
|Shares outstanding (million)||235.2||228.7||226.1|
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.
Investors may be rushing out of the stock because history says a memory-market downturn is inevitable. Maybe they're right. But if they are, you wouldn't know it from looking at the numbers. Let's review:
- With revenue growth accelerating as margins expand, it appears that SanDisk has both operating leverage and pricing power. Free cash flow has ballooned as a result, tripling to more than $1.3 billion during 2010.
- Growth is primarily responsible for the gain, but good management also played a part, as receivables grew much slower than revenue last year. Big profits followed.
- SanDisk has a history of increasing its share count, but this appears to owe as much to employees' exercising stock options than anything else. So far, the dilution hasn't hurt outside investors.
Competitor and peer checkup
Normalized Net Income Growth (3 yrs.)
Source: Capital IQ. Data current as of Jan. 28.
Among competitors, only solid-state drive specialist STEC gets close to SanDisk in terms of long-term growth. Both are also well-positioned for future growth. Analysts expect SanDisk and STEC to enjoy annualized profit growth of 12.5% and 16%, respectively, over the next five years.
In this case, Wall Street may be too cautious. Android-powered tablets with SanDisk flash technology are only now being introduced. Solid-state drives also have yet to go mainstream. Either technology could take off in 2011, and in the process lift the fortunes of SanDisk and its investors.
Now it's your turn to weigh in. Do you like SanDisk at these levels? Let us know what you think using the comments box below. You can also ask me to evaluate a favorite growth story by sending me an email, or replying to me on Twitter.