Should you sell Petrohawk Energy (NYSE: HK) today?

The decision to sell a stock you've researched and followed for months or years is never easy. If you fall in love with your stock holdings, you risk becoming vulnerable to confirmation bias -- listening only to information that supports your theories, and rejecting any contradictions.

In 2004, longtime Fool Bill Mann called confirmation bias one of the most dangerous components of investing. This warning has helped my own personal investing throughout the Great Recession. Now, I want to help you identify potential sell signs on popular stocks within our 4 million-strong Fool.com community.

Today I'm laser-focused on Petrohawk Energy, ready to evaluate its price, valuation, margins, and liquidity. Let's get started!

Don't sell on price
Over the past 12 months, Petrohawk Energy has risen 9.5% versus an S&P 500 return of 13.7%. Investors in Petrohawk Energy are no doubt disappointed with their returns, but is now the time to cut and run? Not necessarily. Short-term underperformance alone is not a sell sign. The market may be missing the critical element of your Petrohawk Energy investing thesis. For historical context, let's compare Petrohawk Energy's recent price to its 52-week and five-year highs. I've also included a few other businesses in the same or related industries:

Company

Recent Price

52-Week High

5-Year High

Petrohawk Energy $25.14 $25.21 $54.50
Southwestern Energy (NYSE: SWN) $39.01 $45.25 $52.80
Newfield Exploration (NYSE: NFX) $70.18 $77.93 $77.90
Range Resources (NYSE: RRC) $52.79 $59.64 $76.80

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

Petrohawk Energy is basically at its 52-week high. This means we need to dig into the valuation to ensure that these new highs are justified.

Potential sell signs
First, let's look at the gross margins trend, which represents the amount of profit a company makes for each $1 in sales, after deducting all costs directly related to that sale. A deteriorating gross margin over time can indicate that competition has forced the company to lower prices, that it can't control costs, or that its whole industry's facing tough times. Here is Petrohawk Energy's gross margin over the past five years:

Hkgrossmargins

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

Petrohawk Energy is clearly having issues maintaining its gross margin, which tends to dictate a company's overall profitability. Petrohawk Energy investors need to keep an eye on this troubling trend over the coming quarters.

Next, let's explore what other investors think about Petrohawk Energy. We love the contrarian view here at Fool.com, but we don't mind cheating off of our neighbors every once in a while. For this, we'll examine two metrics: Motley Fool CAPS ratings and short interest. The former tells us how Fool.com's 170,000-strong community of individual analysts rate the stock. The latter shows what proportion of investors are betting that the stock will fall. I'm including other peer companies once again for context.

Company

CAPS Rating (out of 5)

Short Interest (% of float)

Petrohawk Energy **** 6.3
Southwestern Energy **** 3.7
Newfield Exploration **** 2.7
Range Resources *** 10.5

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

The Fool community is rather bullish on Petrohawk Energy. We typically like to see our stocks rated at four or five stars. Anything below that is a less-than-bullish indicator. I highly recommend you visit Petrohawk Energy's stock pitch page to see the verbatim reasons behind the ratings.

Here, short interest is at a high 6.3%. This typically indicates that large institutional investors are betting against the stock.

Now, let's study Petrohawk Energy's debt situation, with a little help from the debt-to-equity ratio. This metric tells us how much debt the company's taken on, relative to its overall capital structure.

Hktotaldebttoequity

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

Petrohawk Energy has been taking on some additional debt over the past five years. When we take into account increasing total equity over the same time period, this has caused debt-to-equity to be extremely volatile but ultimately settle around its five-year average, as seen in the above chart. I consider a debt-to-equity ratio below 50% to be healthy, though it varies by industry.  Petrohawk Energy is currently above this level, at 74.1%.

The last metric I like to look at is the current ratio, which lets investors judge a company's short-term liquidity. If Petrohawk Energy had to convert its current assets to cash in one year, how many times over could the company cover its current liabilities? As of the last filing, Petrohawk Energy has a current ratio of 0.74. This is a bad sign for Petrohawk Energy. The company's current liabilities are greater than its current assets, which means it could have liquidity issues in the short term.

Finally, it's highly beneficial to determine whether Petrohawk Energy belongs in your portfolio -- and to know how many similar businesses already occupy your stable of investments. If you haven't already, be sure to put your tickers into Fool.com's free portfolio tracker, My Watchlist. You can get started right away by clicking here to add Petrohawk Energy.

The final recap

Hksellingrecap

Petrohawk Energy has failed three of the quick tests that would make it a sell. Does it mean you should sell your Petrohawk Energy shares today solely because of this? Not necessarily, but keep your eye on these trends over the coming quarters.

Remember to add Petrohawk Energy to My Watchlist  to help you keep track of all our coverage of the company on Fool.com.

If you haven't had a chance yet, be sure to read this article detailing how I missed out on over $100,000 in gains through wrong-headed selling.

Jeremy Phillips does not own shares of the companies mentioned.

Range Resources is a Motley Fool Inside Value pick. Alpha Newsletter Account LLC has on Southwestern Energy. The Fool owns shares of Range Resources. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy