Should you sell NextEra Energy (NYSE: NEE) today?

The decision to sell a stock you've researched and followed for months or years is never easy. If you fall in love with your stock holdings, you risk becoming vulnerable to confirmation bias -- listening only to information that supports your theories, and rejecting any contradictions.

In 2004, longtime Fool Bill Mann called confirmation bias one of the most dangerous components of investing. This warning has helped my own personal investing throughout the Great Recession. Now, I want to help you identify potential sell signs on popular stocks within our 4-million-strong Fool.com community.

Today I'm laser-focused on NextEra Energy, ready to evaluate its price, valuation, margins, and liquidity. Let's get started!

Don't sell on price
Over the past 12 months, NextEra Energy has risen 12% versus an S&P 500 return of 13.7%. Investors in NextEra Energy are no doubt disappointed with their returns, but is now the time to cut and run? Not necessarily. Short-term underperformance alone is not a sell sign. The market may be missing the critical element of your NextEra Energy investing thesis. For historical context, let's compare NextEra Energy's recent price to its 52-week and five-year highs. I've also included a few other businesses in the same or related industries:

Company

Recent Price

52-Week High

5-Year High

NextEra Energy

$57.39

$57.90

$73.80

Southern (NYSE: SO)

$39.50

$39.75

$40.60

Exelon (NYSE: EXC)

$41.27

$44.49

$92.10

Consolidated Edison (NYSE: ED)

$53.10

$53.34

$53.30

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

NextEra Energy is basically at its 52-week high. This means we need to dig into the valuation to ensure that these new highs are justified.

Potential sell signs
First up, we'll get a rough idea of NextEra Energy's valuation. I'm comparing NextEra Energy's recent P/E ratio of 14.3 to where it's been over the past five years.

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

NextEra Energy's P/E is lower than its five-year average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued. A low P/E isn't always a good sign, since the market may be lowering its valuation of the company because of less attractive growth prospects. It does indicate that, on a purely historical basis, NextEra Energy looks cheap.

Now, let's look at the gross margins trend, which represents the amount of profit a company makes for each $1 in sales, after deducting all costs directly related to that sale. A deteriorating gross margin over time can indicate that competition has forced the company to lower prices, that it can't control costs, or that its whole industry's facing tough times. Here is NextEra Energy's gross margin over the past five years:

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

NextEra Energy has been able to grow its gross margin, which tends to dictate a company's overall profitability. This is great news; however, NextEra Energy investors need to keep an eye on this over the coming quarters. If margins begin to dip, you'll want to know why.

Next, let's explore what other investors think about NextEra Energy. We love the contrarian view here at Fool.com, but we don't mind cheating off our neighbors every once in a while. For this, we'll examine two metrics: Motley Fool CAPS ratings and short interest. The former tells us how Fool.com's 170,000-strong community of individual analysts rate the stock. The latter shows what proportion of investors are betting that the stock will fall. I'm including other peer companies once again for context.

Company

CAPS Rating (out of 5)

Short Interest (% of Float)

NextEra Energy

*****

1.2

Southern

*****

0.8

Exelon

*****

2.2

Consolidated Edison

***

3.0

Sources: Capital IQ (a division of Standard & Poor's) and Motley Fool CAPS.

The Fool community is rather bullish on NextEra Energy. We typically like to see our stocks rated at four or five stars. Anything below that is a less-than-bullish indicator. I highly recommend you visit NextEra Energy's stock pitch page to see the verbatim reasons behind the ratings.

Here, short interest is at a mere 1.2%. This typically indicates few large institutional investors are betting against the stock.

Now, let's study NextEra Energy's debt situation, with a little help from the debt-to-equity ratio. This metric tells us how much debt the company's taken on, relative to its overall capital structure.

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

NextEra Energy has been taking on some additional debt over the past five years. Even with increasing total equity over the same time period, debt-to-equity has increased. Based on the trend alone, that's a bad sign. I consider a debt-to-equity ratio below 50% to be healthy, though it varies by industry.  NextEra Energy is currently above this level, at 146.4%.

The last metric I like to look at is the current ratio, which lets investors judge a company's short-term liquidity. If NextEra Energy had to convert its current assets to cash in one year, how many times over could the company cover its current liabilities? As of the last filing, NextEra Energy has a current ratio of 0.67. This is a bad sign for NextEra Energy. The company's current liabilities are greater than its current assets, which means it could have liquidity issues in the short term.

Finally, it's highly beneficial to determine whether NextEra Energy belongs in your portfolio -- and to know how many similar businesses already occupy your stable of investments. If you haven't already, be sure to put your tickers into Fool.com's free portfolio tracker, My Watchlist. You can get started right away by clicking here to add NextEra Energy.

The final recap

NextEra Energy has failed only two of the quick tests that would make it a sell. This is great, but does it mean you should hold your NextEra Energy shares? Not necessarily. Just keep your eye on these trends over the coming quarters.

Remember to add NextEra Energy to My Watchlist  to help you keep track of all our coverage of the company on Fool.com.

If you haven't had a chance yet, be sure to read this article detailing how I missed out on over $100,000 in gains through wrong-headed selling.

Jeremy Phillips does not own shares of the companies mentioned.

Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended Exelon and Southern and a covered strangle position on Exelon. The Fool owns shares of NextEra Energy. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.