Only in the airline sector can you find failure being rewarded on a near-quarterly basis. Much like the trading we witnessed in 2008, investors are turning a blind eye to the actual quarterly results and rewarding the airline sector for reporting results that "aren't as bad as expected."
Fueling a recession
Rising fuel costs and tighter consumer spending are wreaking havoc on the bottom lines of the nation's largest airlines. Having reported over the past week, Alaska Air (NYSE: ALK), US Airways Group (NYSE: LCC), United Continental Holdings (NYSE: UAL), and AMR (NYSE: AMR) all alluded to drastically higher fuel costs eating into their profits. Below is a summary of the fuel cost jump that each airline experienced.
|
Company |
Fuel Cost Jump Over Year-Ago Period |
|---|---|
| Alaska Airlines | 55% |
| US Airways | 47% |
| United Continental | 45% |
| AMR | 33% |
The question, therefore, is whether we should look past the sector's "Mickey Mouse economics" where each company takes into consideration what it would have earned prior to fuel costs and hedging, or if we should treat the earnings as a black-and-white exhibit of the health of the sector. Consider me part of the latter camp.
The good, the bad, and the ugly
Of the four airlines to have already reported, Alaska once again seems to be the bullish standout. While its fuel costs rose more quickly than any of its peers, Alaska was able to pass along price hikes to consumers and dramatically increase its overall traffic by 10.3%. Passenger revenue per available seat mile rose an impressive 6.8%, which backs up the notion that its customers are willing to accept recent price hikes.
Wall Street seems fairly content with United Continental and US Airways quarterly figures -- but call me skeptical. For US Airways, traffic and passenger revenue per available seat rose much like Alaska, but unlike Alaska, US Airways doesn't have the same batch of loyal customers willing to accept price increases. US Airways may find itself struggling to raise its prices fast enough to match soaring fuel costs.
United Continental actually reported what I would deem a stinker of a quarter. Not only are rising fuel costs a concern, but slower than anticipated combined labor union deals between the two former companies and flat traffic results relating to fewer flights to Japan are complicating matters. The only saving grace for United Continental this quarter was a $278 million hedging gain. One-time gains can only carry this company so far, so keep that in mind.
The true stinker of the bunch, even worse than United Continental, was AMR. AMR looks poised to be the only major carrier to report a loss this quarter despite its fuel costs going up considerably less than the majority of the sector. Following this week's mammoth 460-plane order from Boeing (NYSE: BA) and Airbus, I feel investors have to be concerned about AMR's weakening margins and inability to get its customers to accept higher fares.
You'd be quackers to buy here
If it walks like a duck, and talks like a duck ... chances are it's a duck! The airlines can sugarcoat their earnings reports all they like, but it's clear that only a select few customer bases are willing to accept rising airfares. If fuel costs keep surging, and nothing right now suggests they won't, no amount of "woulda, coulda, shoulda" is going to keep these stocks from being grounded.
Should airline stocks be flying high or grounded based on these initial earnings reports? Share your thoughts in the comments section below and consider adding Alaska Air, US Airways, United Continental Holdings, and AMR to your watchlist to keep up on the latest in the airline sector.
