Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of credit protection specialist Assured Guaranty (NYSE: AGO) jumped 11% on heavy trading.

So what: Analyst firm BTIG started coverage on Assured with a buy rating and a $35 price target. The firm is looking for more than a triple here, based on "the viability of its business model" being underappreciated by investors today.

Now what: The same firm also issued a similarly glowing recommendation of sector rival MBIA (Nasdaq: MBI) last week, sending those shares up by more than 30%. BTIG has an unusually rosy view of the credit protection market and hopes to capitalize if that sector bounces back from this economic crisis.

But is this the bottom, or will BTIG catch a couple of falling knives? If anybody claims to know the answer right now, that person also has a nice bridge to sell you in New York. Playing this sector long or short could be bad for your portfolio's health, though volatility-seeking strategies should work out all right.

Interested in more info about Assured Guaranty? Click here to add it to My Watchlist.

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium advisory service. We’re motley! Questioning an investing thesis -- even one of our own -- helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer.