David Crowe, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), has released a bullish forecast regarding the 2012 Housing market.
He estimates new home sales will increase from 304,000 in 2011 to 360,000 in 2012. Additionally, housing starts will increase by 17% to 709k. Single family homes will also increase by 17% to 501k. Total starts will hit 709k. Crowe also anticipates new home sales will significantly increase in 2013, reports CalculatedRisk.
Of course, NAHB's forecast isn't the only one that matters. Analysts from Merrill Lynch, John Burns, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Moody's, and Fannie Mae have released forecasts of their own.
Using a table from Calculated Risk, we see the forecast range. Merrill Lynch comes in as the least optimistic for New Home Sales in 2012, predicting 304,000. On the other hand, Moody's anticipates 530,000 new home sales.
For single family home starts, Merrill Lynch again comes in as the most pessimistic of the lot at 427k. Moody's is most optimistic at 687k single family starts.
Business section: Investing ideas
So, which housing stocks are worth a closer look?
For ideas, we collected data on insider transactions and identified a list of housing stocks that have seen significant insider buying over the last six months.
Theoretically, insiders know more about their companies than anyone else. So if they're using their own cash to buy the shares of their employers, you better pay close attention.
Insider executives are optimistic on the outlook of these companies. They seem to think the rebound is for real -- do you agree? (Click here to access free, interactive tools to analyze these ideas.)
2. KB Home
3. Beazer Homes: Designs, builds, and sells single-family and multi-family homes in the United States. Over the last six months, insiders were net buyers of 88,300 shares, which represents about 0.14% of the company's 62.67M share float.
4. Armstrong World Industries: Engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of flooring products and ceiling systems in the Americas, Europe, and the Pacific Rim. Over the last six months, insiders were net buyers of 16,000 shares, which represents about 0.08% of the company's 20.65M share float.
6. Texas Industries: Engages in the production and supply of heavy construction materials in the United States. Over the last six months, insiders were net buyers of 2,744,380 shares, which represents about 20.15% of the company's 13.62M share float.
7. Two Harbors Investment
8. ARMOUR Residential REIT
9. Campus Crest Communities: Focuses on building, owning, and managing student housing properties in the United States. Over the last six months, insiders were net buyers of 12,525 shares, which represents about 0.04% of the company's 30.58M share float.
Interactive Chart: Press Play to compare changes in analyst ratings over the last two years for the stocks mentioned above. Analyst ratings sourced from Zacks Investment Research.
List compiled by Eben Esterhuizen, CFA. Kapitall's Eben Esterhuizen and Rebecca Lipman do not own any of the shares mentioned above. Insider data sourced from Yahoo! Finance.