The first half of 2012 is in the rearview mirror, and investors are gearing up for what looks to be an action-packed ending. There are bound to be some big winners -- and more than a few duds -- no matter what happens in the United States and abroad.
Will your favorite stock have its victory lap as we hit the home stretch, or will it get lapped? First-half performances can hold some clues, so let's look to the recent past to find out whether Monster Beverage (Nasdaq: MNST) deserves a place in your portfolio going forward.
First-half recap
Monster has been one of 2012's best performers. Its rise has been steady and virtually uninterrupted from January to the present day, as you can see here:
MNST Total Return Price data by YCharts
Here are a few financial snapshots of its recent performance:
| Market Cap | $13.0 billion |
| Trailing 12-Month Revenue | $1.80 billion |
| TTM Net Income | $307 million |
| TTM Free Cash Flow | $310 million |
| Most Recent Quarterly Revenue | $455 million |
| MRQ Net Income | $76 million |
| MRQ Free Cash Flow | $21 million |
| MRQ Revenue / Net Income YOY Change | 27.8% / 38.2% |
| P/E and Forward P/E | 44.4 / 29.2 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow | 41.9 |
| Motley Fool CAPS Rating (out of 5) | *** |
Source: Morningstar.
What the numbers don't tell you
Monster steamed into 2012 as one of the market's most expensive food and beverage stocks. It hasn't looked back, as its current P/E sits about 12 points higher than it did at the start of the year. The company's 2011 annual results puffed more wind into its sails (and cash into its sales), as its new Rehab lineup began eating away at the canned-and-bottled tea segment led by PepsiCo's (NYSE: PEP) Brisk and SoBe brands and Dr Pepper Snapple.
Monster seemed to make new 52-week highs with each passing week this year. There weren't many news-based drivers of the company's big momentum, but the news was all gravy. Rumors that Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) might buy Monster never panned out, but that didn't matter, as Monster blasted through analysts' expectations with a strong first quarter.
Those results led to two analyst upgrades in the span of a month, one from UBS upping its price target to $82, the other from Stifel Nicolaus pegging its price target a dollar higher. Monster muscled its way into the S&P 500 in late June, establishing itself as a mid-cap stock with staying power.
Does Monster have nothing but smooth sailing ahead? Not quite. Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) and SodaStream (Nasdaq: SODA) are just two of the many companies trying to make their mark on the energy drink market. Fool contributor Sean Williams even foresees a future in which Obamacare might undermine Monster's sales. The company's high valuation relative to many of its beverage purveyor peers is also a major issue to watch, particularly if its strong sales growth slows.
I outlined Monster's bull case at the end of February. Since then, the stock's gained 26%. Still, I recognize the challenges ahead, and would pay very close attention to any visible slowdown. Many investors have seen huge gains from Monster. If it's time to find your next multibagger, look no further than The Motley Fool's free report on one transformative medical technology stock ready to explode. Claim your free copy of "The Next Rule-Breaking Multibagger" while it's still available.
