Just as we examine companies each week that may be rising past their fair value, we can also find companies potentially trading at bargain prices. While many investors would rather have nothing to do with companies tipping the scales at 52-week lows, I think it makes a lot of sense to determine whether the market has overreacted to the downside, just as we often do when the market reacts to the upside.
Here's a look at three fallen angels trading near their 52-week lows that could be worth buying.
If you've been following this series with any regularity over the past two years, you're likely aware that I feel quite confident in the future of most gold companies. Perhaps the two areas that offer the greatest uncertainty would be African miners, which have significantly higher mining costs, or developmental-stage explorers, which have no guarantee of future production and must contend with the rising cost of building out a mine. This is why I feel it'd be best to spread out your risk of these developmental miners with the Global X Gold Explorers ETF (NYSEMKT:GOEX).
I feel this ETF offers a few notable advantages over guessing which development company will be the next breakout candidate. First, it lowers your risk of buying into a dud. Trust me, there will be successes and there will be duds. This fund will help balance those risks so you can really take advantage of the successes. Second, asset sales can be quite common with developmental-stage gold companies. Guessing which companies may complete an asset sale is like trying to find a needle in a haystack; unless you own this ETF, of course, which holds 20 different developing gold miners.
Another reason this fund looks attractive (at least to me) is that Rubicon Minerals (NYSEMKT: RBY) is one of its largest holdings at 6.02% of its assets as of May 10, 2013. Rubicon is in the late stages of the development process for the F2 Gold System, which has yielded drilling assessments as high as 767 grams/ton. F2 appears to be just as bountiful in gold well below the surface as it is near the surface, which could mean a very long and profitable mine life for Rubicon.
Following a pummeling in spot gold and miners last month, this ETF with an annual expense ratio of 0.65% looks like a bargain buy moving forward.
Treat this stock like royalty
Sticking with the shiny yellow metal, I thought we'd turn the tables from mining ETFs to royalty interest behemoth Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD). Royal Gold is to the gold sector what Silver Wheaton is to the silver sector. If you've got a need for cash to build out a project, then Royal Gold has the cash in exchange for a low fixed price for that gold over a specified time period.
As you might expect, royalty interest companies have some advantages and some disadvantages. For Royal Gold, the $200 drop in the spot price of gold comes directly out of its margins and is a big reason its share price was hit hard this year. In addition, problems that arise in mines it has contracts with can reduce production and, therefore, profitability. Conversely, royalty interest companies' obligations end with their contractual payment. This means the ongoing costs of mine maintenance, repairs, and expansion isn't part of their budget and falls on the mining companies themselves. The actual expenses for royalty interest companies are quite minimal.
Royal Gold looks like it's poised to take advantage of the soon-to-be-open Mt. Milligan project operated by Thompson Creek Metals, with 52.25% ownership of the mine's purported 6 million ounces of gold. Mt. Milligan is expected to deliver 262,000 ounces of gold annually for the first six years with production tapering to 194,000 ounces thereafter. Royal Gold, after its $435-per-ounce payment for that gold, should net quite a handsome profit -- even with gold well off its highs. Mt. Milligan, amazingly enough, remains on schedule and should begin production as early as August.
Tank you very much
I haven't been a fan of the shipping sector in years, but I'm finally coming around to a few of the stronger candidates. This week I plan to add oil transporter Teekay Tankers (NYSE:TNK) to the list.
Clearly, there are a lot of reasons to remain skeptical of shippers. Charter rates are down significantly from where they'd been just five years ago because of the recession, while oversupply of ships hasn't allowed for contract rates to rebound as shipping demand slowly returned. Tack on Europe's woes and there are enough reasons for investors to shy away from highly indebted and unprofitable shippers.
There are two particular aspects about Teekay Tankers that caught my attention. First, the product it's shipping (oil) is going to remain in high demand as long as China continues to grow and emerging markets in South America expand. There's considerable stability in oil demand relative to dry bulk goods.
Also, Teekay has close to half of its contracts locked into longer-term fixed rates. This gives the company some flexibility to set new contracts at higher rates should they come around, while also giving the shipper some predictability to its cash flow. With no debt maturing for the next four years, this looks like it could be cleared for a return to profitability and an eventual takeoff.
This week it's all about realizing long-term projections. The Global explorers ETF, Royal Gold, and Teekay Tankers all look as if they're finally going to meet investors' lofty expectations, and shareholders should expect a nice rebound in all three stocks.