SodaStream (NASDAQ:SODA) generated some healthy buzz shortly after Tuesday's Analyst Day, but one analyst is having second doubts.
Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of the company behind the namesake beverage system from buy, to hold, feeling that the stock may have outrun its positive fundamentals.
Yes, SodaStream has been on a tear; the stock has doubled over the past year. However, before following Deutshe Bank's lead, are you aware of all of the bullish developments at SodaStream?
Let's go over four nuggets from Tuesday's Analyst Day presentation that may surprise you.
1. There are a lot of new products on the way
You may know about the Samsung refrigerator that dispenses SodaStream carbonated water. You may know about SodaCaps, the pod-based flavor packs that make it even easier to make flavored soda and aligns the SodaStream product closer to Green Mountain Coffee Roasters' model. You may know about the stylish new beverage makers and redesigned bottles that will hit the market later this year.
But what do you know about Christmas Cocktails?
You don't know anything about it, do you?
This isn't necessarily a game changer, but SodaStream is putting out a few holiday-themed syrups in time for Christmas -- which may, or may not, move the needle. But how can you possibly know everything in SodaStream's fizzy pipeline, since you were likely unaware of the existence of Christmas Cocktails until just now?
Remember watching Green Mountain pop fourfold since bottoming out this past summer, as investors embraced the new products in that company's java business? With that in mind, are you going to dismiss the new patents and potential at SodaStream?
2. SodaStream's marketing efforts pay off within a year
SodaStream spent $74 million in advertising and promotion this past year, and that breaks out to a cost of $25 per new user. That also happens to be the average profit on the beverage maker, carbonators, and syrups that SodaStream collects on that user in the first 12 months.
You do realize that every year after that is gravy. And given the scalable nature of this model, earnings growth will probably eclipse revenue growth over time.
Oh ... right.
3. Earnings growth will outpace revenue growth over time
A shortcoming in SodaStream's latest quarter is that sales grew faster than profitability. Revenue rose 34%, while earnings climbed just 20%.
Given the scalable nature of this model, it may seem odd to see net margins contract, but this is really more about where SodaStream is in its growth cycle. SodaStream is investing in new facilities and breaking into new markets. Did you know that Mexico -- the largest consumer of soft drinks per capita -- will get SodaStream next year?
In time, this will change.
Analysts made a big deal about SodaStream forecasting sales of $1 billion come 2016. It's a big headline number, but there wasn't a lot of buzz about the 15% to 18% in net margins on its adjusted earnings that SodaStream is also targeting by then. Net margins are presently just shy of 10%.
What does this mean? Well, we're talking $150 million to $180 million in earnings. I didn't need to take out a calculator for that one. If we go with the 20.7 million shares currently outstanding, we're looking at a company trading for between seven and nine times 2016's adjusted net income.
If this sounds too distant, let's make this easier. If SodaStream shares double in the next three years, it will be trading at an earnings multiple in the teens. The shares may very well inch higher, but one also needs to keep in mind that SodaStream has been historically conservative in its guidance.
4. We're only getting started stateside
Over time, SodaStream is targeting 10% market penetration in the 45 countries in which it's presently doing business. That's huge, because the company's products are actively used in just 2% of those households.
This isn't a fantasy. Four countries already have an active household penetration of 10% or better, led by Sweden, at 25.2%.
The U.S., the world's largest market for carbonated beverages, is now at a mere 1.1%. You can expect this country to seriously move the needle as it approaches SodaStream's target.
Do you really think that SodaStream is still expensive?