If you want to see where ExxonMobil (XOM -0.09%) will head in the next couple years, look to our neighbors to the North. Despite Exxon's operations that span the oil and gas business, the upstream side is where the Texas giant makes its bread and butter. That is why its interest in the Kearl oil sands project in Alberta will be a key determinant in Exxon's future.

There are three reasons why Kearl stands above the other projects Exxon has in the queue: management control, production share, and rate of return. In the video below, Fool.com contributors Tyler Crowe and Aimee Duffy explain why these three factors make Kearl the biggest thing to watch for Exxon going forward.