Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over daily movements, we do like to keep an eye on market changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI +1.24%) is down after third-quarter GDP was revised upward. As of 1:30 p.m. EST the Dow had lost 46 points to hit 15,843. The S&P 500 (^GSPC +1.46%) was down three points to 1,786.
There were two U.S. economic releases today.
|
Report |
Period |
Result |
Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
|
New Unemployment Claims |
11/23-11/30 |
298,000 |
321,000 |
|
GDP 2nd Estimate |
Q3 |
3.6% |
2.5% |
New unemployment claims dropped but continue to hover near the 300,000 level. But the figure to focus on is the GDP revision, which came in higher than expected. Third-quarter GDP was shifted from 2.8% annual growth to 3.6% annual growth. The final revision will be on Dec. 30.
The revision was the result of companies adding more inventory than previously expected. This means companies have positive outlooks on the economy, but could also be a negative if demand doesn't materialize. Investors are worried retailers are going to be stuck with excess supply after Black Friday sales numbers were far worse than expected, an ominous sign for this holiday season.
The market is waiting for the official jobs report and the personal income and outlays reports tomorrow, which will show how many jobs were added in November and the level of personal consumption inflation. Yesterday's private sector jobs report from ADP came in better than expected, leading investors to worry that the Federal Reserve will decrease its asset purchases. The complicating factor is that core inflation has been trending downward to the point where many investors are starting to worry about deflation.
The Fed continues its $85 billion per month of long-term asset purchases, but the mortgage and Treasury markets are growing increasingly worried that the central bank will stop those purchases sooner than expected. The mortgage and Treasury bond markets continued to sell-off today, with the yield on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rising to 4.52% and the yield on the 10-year Treasury rising to 2.86%
10 Year Treasury Rate data by YCharts.
What should you do while the Fed prepares its next move? Nothing. If your investment strategy is dependent on Federal Reserve action, you are doing it wrong. Constantly educate yourself, find great companies, and invest for the long term.
