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Why Genesco Shares Popped and Then Dropped

By Jeremy Bowman - Updated Nov 17, 2016 at 4:18PM

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Is this meaningful? Or just another movement?

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What:  Shares of Genesco (GCO -0.76%) jumped as much as 11% today before going negative as it posted a strong earnings report, but weak guidance.

So what: Adjusted earnings for the parent of brands such as Lids and Johnston & Murphy came in at $1.43, better than expectations at of $1.38, but a penny lower than last year's mark at $1.44. Revenue was also ahead of the bar, inching up 0.3% to $666.3 million, beating the consensus at $662.6 million. Same-store sales fell by 1% for the quarter. Still, management lowered its full-year EPS guidance to a range of $5.10-$5.20, from a range of $5.20-$5.30.

Now what: The brief spike at the market open seemed to be more of a fluke than anything else, as a modest beat on top and bottom lines wouldn't seem to warrant an 11% especially with lower guidance. Management noted that comparable sales in the current quarter have thus been flat, which is a mild improvement over the third quarter but nothing to get excited about. Analysts do expect sales to increase 7% next year, which would be a welcome sign for this otherwise stable company. Still, with the current weakness, I wouldn't call Genesco a compelling investment by any means.  


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