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Why Noah Holdings Limited Shares Popped

By Sean Williams - Feb 27, 2014 at 12:00AM

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Noah Holdings soars again after reporting robust fourth-quarter growth. Can its shares head even higher, or is it time to ring the register?

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Noah Holdings (NOAH -3.05%), a China-based wealth-management company that services high-net-worth individuals, popped by as much as 11% after the company reported its fourth-quarter earnings results after the bell last night.

So what: For the quarter, Noah delivered enormous net-revenue growth of 81% to $45.4 million as its operating margin expanded 220 basis points to 29.2% and net income jumped 111% to $13.4 million. Adjusted EPS for the quarter came in at $0.26 per share, which was $0.03 higher than the lone Wall Street estimate. Noah notes that the number of active clients increased by 79% during the quarter with the aggregate value of wealth management products being distributed increasing by 81% to approximately $1.9 billion. Looking ahead, Noah's management issued fiscal 2014 guidance calling for $72 million-$76 million in adjusted EPS, representing 27%-34% year-over-year growth.

Now what: At the midpoint of Noah's guidance, this represents $1.31 per share in projected full-year EPS, which would place the company at less than 13 times next year's earnings (note, there are no current estimates from Wall Street). Coupled with the fact that Noah can continue to grow its top line at exceptionally fast rates and that China's wealthy are only growing wealthier, I'd certainly suggest there could be additional upside yet to be seen in Noah's share price.

Sean Williams has no material interest in any companies mentioned in this article. You can follow him on CAPS under the screen name TMFUltraLong, track every pick he makes under the screen name TrackUltraLong, and check him out on Twitter, where he goes by the handle @TMFUltraLong.

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