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Does Apple Have Only 2 Months to Live?

By Daniel Sparks - Mar 22, 2014 at 3:00PM

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One impatient analyst doesn't understand Apple.

If there's one thing Apple ( AAPL 2.28% ) shouldn't do, it's rush a product to market. But that's exactly what Global Equities Research managing director Trip Chowdhry suggests Apple should do.

"They only have 60 days left to either come up with something or they will disappear," Chowdry said, according to CNBC. "It will take years for Apple's $130 billion in cash to vanish, but it will become an irrelevant company ... it will become a zombie, if they don't come up with an iWatch."

Though it may be on the extreme side, Chowdry's notion that the wearables market is a crucial space for Apple isn't new. A number of analysts have made the case for Apple to enter the wearables space. Even Apple CEO Tim Cook has called the category "another very key branch of the tree."

But there is one major problem with Chowdry's impatient timeline.

A flop is a bigger risk for Apple than tardiness
As long as either Steve Jobs or Tim Cook have been running Apple, the company has always had a very limited product portfolio. With a concentrated product lineup, product flops could be detrimental for the company.

Consider the iPhone, for instance. Apple's iPhone business makes up more than half of its revenue and an even larger share of its operating profits. Even Apple's Mac business accounts for more than 10% of Apple's revenue. With only a few products, a flop can really damage Apple's earnings potential.

Beyond the immediate negative effects a flop could have on Apple's earnings potential, Apple's reputation is on the line every time it enters a new category -- especially in the post-Steve Jobs era. If the company is working on an iWatch, investors should hope the device isn't a typical smartwatch. Instead, it should revolutionize the entire category. Apple has a history of innovation and revolutionary new products to live up to.

Investors should be patient
Apple CEO Tim Cook has said already promised that the company will be launching new categories this year. Whether it happens in 60 days or at the end of the year will make little difference for the long-term story for Apple stock. Perhaps Chowdhry is simply getting desperate for something to happen in order for his bullish $800 price target to ring true.

For investors with a Foolishly long-term approach to investing, the biggest catalyst for Apple stock will not be whether or not the iWatch is launched within Chowdhry's timeframe. Instead, Foolish investors should be concerned whether Apple's new devices in new categories are innovative and revolutionary. If it takes extra time for Apple to get its next category right, it will be worth the wait.

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium advisory service. We’re motley! Questioning an investing thesis – even one of our own – helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer.

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