Why VistaPrint Limited Shares Imploded

Is this meaningful? Or just another movement?

Alex Planes
Alex Planes
Apr 30, 2014 at 4:20PM
Consumer Goods

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of VistaPrint Limited (NASDAQ:CMPR) have lost more than 25% of their value today after the company released a brutal fiscal third-quarter earnings report following Tuesday's closing bell.

So what: Wall Street analysts had expected VistaPrint to generate $310.7 million in revenue and $0.59 in earnings per share for its March quarter. However, the print-marketing specialist fell flat on its face with just $286.2 million in revenue, and only $0.35 in EPS. CEO Robert Keane was clearly disappointed with his company's performance, noting that it was "the first quarter in the past 14 years in which our revenue declined year over year." VistaPrint's full-year guidance wasn't too lousy, given the circumstances -- the company expects to generate between $1.25 billion and $1.27 billion in revenue, and projects EPS in a range of $2.70 to $2.85. Analysts had modeled full-year revenue of $1.25 billion and $2.85 in EPS.

Now what: VistaPrint is in the middle of a transition of sorts, as Keane notes that the company is "shifting [its] value proposition away from the deep discounts and free-offer direct marketing that characterized the VistaPrint of the past toward being simply the best way for business owners to market their business." The company hopes that this will reduce its exposure to the penny-pinchers that have flocked to its low-cost print services in the past, but this strategy hasn't quite worked out yet.

However, the company's full-year guidance is still attainable, as its adjusted EPS for the first three quarters stands at $2.20, and even the low end of its full-year guidance would represent 26% year-over-year growth from 2013's final adjusted EPS figure. The company's P/E and price-to-free-cash-flow ratios are both far more reasonable than they were at the start of the year, as well, but they're not at the rock-bottom levels seen at the end of 2011. There is likely to be some upside in VistaPrint now, but that will depend on the company hitting its targets and continuing to grow strongly in its 2015 fiscal year. Dig a little deeper here and you might find a nice opportunity in this wreckage.