What: Shares of Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR.DL) soared on Thursday following the company's fiscal-fourth-quarter earnings report. While both revenue and profit declined year-over-year, the company bested analyst expectations. At 1:40 Thursday afternoon, the stock was up about 24%.
So what: Keurig reported quarterly revenue of $1.04 billion, down 13% year-over-year but about $10 million higher than analysts were expecting. Sales of brewers and accessories slumped 32% year-over-year, while sales of pods, which account for the bulk of the company's revenue, fell by 9%. Keurig estimated that U.S. retail unit sales of pods actually grew by 7% during the fourth quarter, however, with an inventory buildup to blame for the discrepancy.
Non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.85 per share, down 10% year-over-year but $0.14 higher than the average analyst estimate. GAAP EPS fell by 29% year-over-year to $0.61, with gross margin falling to 32.3%, down from 37.6% during the same period last year. SG&A expenses declined by 20% year-over-year, partially counteracting the decline in revenue and gross margin, driven by lower spending on marketing and compensation.
On an absolute basis, Keurig's quarter wasn't particularly positive, with the company unable to halt declining sales of its coffee machines. But Keurig did better than analysts were expecting, and given how far the stock has fallen so far this year, that was enough to send the stock soaring.
Now what: In addition to beating analyst estimates, Keurig provided guidance for fiscal 2016. Revenue is expected to be flat to up low-single-digits, adjusted for currency, while non-GAAP EPS is expected to be between $3.25 and $3.45. This earnings guidance is in-line with the average analyst estimate of $3.42, and the revenue guidance suggests that the company will return to growth next year.
Shares of Keurig had tumbled about 70% this year prior to the company's earnings report, but a better-than-expected quarter and guidance that points to a stronger 2016 has given Keurig its best day in quite some time. The company will now need to follow through on its guidance and find a way to reverse weak sales of its coffee machines.
