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Why Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. Stock Popped Today

By Steve Symington - Apr 7, 2016 at 4:56PM

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The discount retailer closed its latest fiscal year on a high note. Here's what investors need to know.

Image source: Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings.

What: Shares of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI 4.53%) jumped more than 10% Thursday after the discount retailer reported better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter 2015 results.

So what: Quarterly net sales climbed 21.3% year over year, to $243.4 million, helped by a 15.3% increase in Ollie's location base (to 203 stores) during the the past year, as well as comparable-store sales growth of 5%. That translated to a 56.4% increase in adjusted net income, to $18.8 million, or $0.31 per share, and 37% growth in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), to $38.2 million. Analysts, on average, were looking for lower adjusted earnings of $0.28 per share on revenue of $239.1 million.

Now what: Ollie's also offered guidance for the current fiscal year ended January 28, 2017, calling for revenue of $865 million to $875 million (including 28 to 32 new locations, and comps of 1.5% to 2.5%), net income of $51 million to $52 million, or $0.82 to $0.84 on a per-share basis. By comparison, Wall Street's consensus estimates called for revenue of $872.3 million -- slightly above the midpoint of Ollie's guidance -- but also lower earnings of $0.76 per share.

"We had another strong quarter and are pleased with the continued momentum of the business," elaborated Ollie's CEO Mark Butler. "Once again, the strength was not just in one area, but across the entire business."

In the end, its slight top-line guidance shortfall notwithstanding, it's hard to find anything not to like about Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings stock today. If the company can simply sustain this momentum in the coming quarters -- and with shares trading at a reasonable (relative to its impressive growth) 27.5 times this fiscal year's expected earnings -- I think Ollie's stock has more room to rise from here.

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