Why should that be? I don't think it's earnings -- the company missed expectations for the fourth quarter by $0.05, yadda yadda yadda, but that's really not important to anyone but analysts -- or even delays in approval. I suspect that history is at work here, including the history of ICOS
Neurocrine is going for approval of two forms of Indiplon -- Indiplon-IR, an immediate-release version meant to help get users to sleep initially, and Indiplon-MR, a modified-release version to help users maintain sleep throughout the night. There were problems with the new drug application for Indiplon-IR submitted last October, requiring Neurocrine to reformat and resubmit the application.
Earlier this month, the company said it will get the application for Indiplon-IR back to the Food and Drug Administration late in the first quarter or in the second quarter. Assuming a typical 10-month review, that would push an approval to the beginning of 2006. Indiplon-MR should get the thumbs up or down around the same time.
Investors had been hoping for a late 2005 launch, and the delay will cost Neurocrine valuable time in its battle with Sepracor
The new drug application for Lunesta (which was known as Estorra) was submitted on Jan. 31, 2003. Bright-eyed optimists might have hoped for a late 2003 approval, but it wasn't until February 2004 that the FDA issued an "approvable" letter to Sepracor, asking for more data. Actual approval didn't come until last December, and Sepracor still has not been able to launch the drug because of issues about how prescriptions will be controlled by the Drug Enforcement Administration, or DEA (Lunesta is a Schedule IV controlled substance, as Indiplon likely will be). A report just this week suggests that this final roadblock may soon be removed: According to industry newsletter The Pink Sheet, Lunesta will be limited to five refills in a six-month period, which shouldn't pose much of a limitation to patients.
Nevertheless, Sepracor has yet to announce a firm launch date, and what once looked like a 18-month head start for Lunesta over Indiplon now looks to be closer to a year.
Competition sneaks up
The delays faced by the two companies help out some competitors hoping for late entry into the burgeoning insomnia market. While market-leading drug Ambien will lose patent protection as soon as October 2006, Sanofi-Aventis
This mad rush to a consumer-driven market seems a little familiar to me. Neurocrine has started reminding me in many ways of ICOS, which makes me wary of investing in Neurocrine at this stage.
What do I mean? Well, ICOS' Cialis entered the market after some delays as a third-in-class drug -- the best-case scenario now facing Neurocrine. Cialis, like Indiplon, has some pretty clear benefits over the market leader (Viagra or Ambien) and some more arguable advantages over the second entry (Levitra or Lunesta). (In this case, I think Neurocrine has a weaker argument than ICOS for having the best-in-class drug, but we'll give it the benefit of the doubt for the moment.) Like Neurocrine, ICOS co-markets and shares profits with a large pharmaceuticals partner, Eli Lilly
When I tally up the similarities and look at financials, I can't help but be struck by the fact that both companies have market caps around $1.5 billion. (Neurocrine is actually valued slightly higher than ICOS.) The big difference is that ICOS has been hawking Cialis for well over a year, and the company's shares have lost 49% of their value since Cialis was approved. And the kicker is that Cialis hasn't been a disappointment in any way. Worldwide sales in 2004 were $552 million, and the drug is well on its way to reaching or exceeding the $1 billion in peak sales that many analysts originally hoped for.
Obviously, these companies aren't identical, and I don't mean to push comparisons further than warranted. Neurocrine has a much more interesting looking pipeline to me than ICOS, for instance. Also, while Lilly ICOS, the joint venture that sells Cialis, is expected to become profitable for the first time this year, ICOS itself will continue to lose cash. Neurocrine is predicting profitability in 2006, the first year Indiplon is on the market.
On the positive side, I think there is a fairly low risk that Indiplon won't get approval, and I believe the drug will find a significant niche in the important and growing sleep aid market. But Neurocrine's $1.3 billion enterprise value and its similarities with ICOS suggest to me that there is relatively little upside to the company until we hear more about progress in the pipeline.
Now Sepracor, on the other hand, looks mighty expensive with a market cap of $6.2 billion and an enterprise value over $6.5 billion. To be fair, this is a whole different animal than Neurocrine -- Sepracor is pulling in healthy revenues and royalties from a series of approved products. But expectations for Lunesta are running high, and while analysts are projecting profitability for the company in 2006, the premium Sepracor enjoys over Neurocrine is pretty striking. Owning Neurocrine right now might make me toss and turn a bit, but Sepracor would keep me up at night.
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