So this is what it feels like to miss. After watching Motley Fool Stock Advisor pick Pixar (NASDAQ:PIXR) trounce analyst forecasts over the past few years, the company's performance has finally been lapped by Wall Street's estimations. Last night, the company warned that it was looking to earn just $0.10 a share for its second quarter, a nickel off its original projection.
Even though The Incredibles has become the top-selling video and DVD of 2005, the title isn't selling as briskly as the company had expected. It's reminiscent of what happened to rival DreamWorks Animation (NYSE:DWA) earlier this year, when Shrek 2 was facing a bigger wave of retail returns than the computer animation specialist had expected.
Pixar's new bottom-line target turned off investors. The stock was off by more than 10% in after-hours trading on the news. Disney (NYSE:DIS), Pixar's partner on The Incredibles and the recipient of half of the film's profits, found its stock barely touched.
Personally, I dig moments like these. If you've been standing on the sidelines, feeling that Pixar's run had priced the stock out of your desired price range, now would be a good time to take a closer look.
Pixar's financials are never going to be smooth. This is a hits-driven business and the revenue streams aren't going to flow into all four quarters evenly. More importantly, few investors were buying Pixar for its second-quarter performance. Many have already turned their attention to the company's next theatrical release -- Cars -- while others are looking beyond that to the day when Pixar will be free of its current profit-sharing pact with Disney.
Pixar can't lose on that front. Sure, it can still sign a new deal with Disney. If so, it is likely to involve retaining the ownership rights to older properties while commanding a much larger share of future profits. If Pixar and Disney part ways, the company's reputation for quality and its string of consecutive hits make it one of the most dependable bets in celluloid.
It might not be a bad time to don your bathing suit and go for a dip.
Some more cartoonish takes:
- Pixar had a habit of making analysts feel inferior by blowing away profit targets.
- Learn why Cars was put up on concrete blocks.
- Talk about it all and then some in our Pixar discussion board.
Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz owns all of the Pixar releases on DVD. Yes, he owns shares of Pixar too -- and Disney. The Fool has a disclosure policy. He is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early.
