2026 forecast
2026 may be a very mixed year for Shopify investors. Although Wall Street is convinced that the stock is underpriced at about $108 -- the average price target is closer to $148, investors are still a bit skittish about SaaS stocks. Even so, 51 analysts rated it in June, giving the stock 10 Strong Buy recommendations and 28 Buys. There were also 12 Holds – it's a stock that Wall Street believes in.
Other crystal balls aren't so rosy, though. CoinCodex, a website that uses technical trading information to price stocks into the future, only sees an average annualized price of $78.86 for Spotify in 2026.
This is going to remain a bumpy year for SHOP investors, in my opinion, but if the company continues to perform as it has, it's a great long-term buy-and-hold candidate.
2030 forecast
Only CoinCodex looks into 2030 SHOP prices, but it sees significant upside by then, predicting an annualized price of $226.08. This is slightly more than double today's price. If the company continues to perform, there's no reason that's not possible as long as investors can shake their fears of what AI may or may not do to Shopify's business. Shopify itself doesn't seem too afraid of the future.
Key drivers of Shopify's stock performance
Overwhelmingly, Shopify's stock performance is being weighed down by broader fears that AI is irrevocably changing the business landscape. However, that's been a fear for a while, and it's not really come to pass, so it may be time to say this is an unfounded concern that too many investors currently hold. In addition to that, Shopify is using AI to help speed up product development, according to its most recent earnings call.
However, real problems do exist in the world that will affect Shopify, including the current economic reality for many consumers, who are facing hard choices about how to pay for the rising costs of housing, food, and other essentials, even as their paychecks aren't growing. That, more than anything, may impact Shopify's bottom line, given that its clients rely on those very consumers to buy their products, most of which are not strictly necessary for life. This is a problem for all e-commerce stocks right now, though, and isn't unique to Shopify.
Still, Shopify had a great quarter and is doing well despite its stock price. Net income was $1.2 billion in 2025, down from the year before, but much stronger than 2023. And as stated above, 90% of its customers are long-term subscribers, a sign of a solid future. Shopify is also looking for other ways to support retailers, including expanding into financial services, which would create new revenue streams and more reasons for companies to remain loyal.
