Historically, foreign markets have not moved U.S. markets -- until now, according to Robert Webb, professor of financial trading at the University of Virginia and author of the book Trading Catalysts: How Events Move Markets and Create Trading Opportunities.
The advent of globalization has meant that foreign markets are now moving U.S. markets. "By and large, the U.S. has moved foreign markets, rather than vice versa," according to Webb. "Though we have seen an occasional instance in which foreign markets would impact U.S. markets … it's rare for it to be the other way around and that's what's changing."
Take March 4 as an example. The Dow shot up nearly 150 points following an announcement from China Premier Wen Jiabao that the country was considering an additional economic stimulus, on top of the $586 billion spending plan already in place.
The beginning of this emerging pattern was ushered in with a bang at the end of February 2007 when China's Shanghai Composite index plummeted 8.8%, in turn causing U.S. markets to sell off about 3%.
Webb says we'll see more of it going forward, but that the magnitude and impact of overseas markets on U.S. markets will be smaller on a relative basis. An 8% decline in China, for example, wouldn't produce the same or larger effect in the United States; it would be far smaller than the impact on the home market in China. So, while this trend is growing, it will take some time before every policy action overseas has the same significance as policy actions here in the U.S.
Another reason why being an investor is better than being a trader
All this is to say that winning the trading game has taken on a new dimension. Globalization means that traders have it even tougher now. "If you're a trader it has very important implications … you need to take into account a broader range of considerations than before in terms of what factors can impact the market," Webb said. "So if you have a major market move overnight, which is every trader's worry, then obviously you're going to shorten your time horizon or put appropriate stops in place so that you would get stopped out."
Traders must now also consider whether they have any edge over predicting the actions of foreign governments.
"It's another source of volatility," said Webb. "So if you think in terms of volatility, other things equal, you're going to have slightly more volatile markets than before."
Implications for investing
Traders are clearly going to have to deal with more obstacles, but what does this mean for investors? In short, it's another factor to consider in the daily gyrations of stocks. However, if you're a long-term investor, it doesn't amount to much.
More specifically, it means that globalization is another source of volatility. It means that stocks that generate a substantial percentage of revenues overseas or whose businesses are dependent on global forces could be more volatile. Take Hewlett Packard
However, globalization itself is anything but irrelevant for long-term-minded investors. It's important to pay attention to the growth of businesses in interconnected economies. Cemex
The banks are yet another example of the implications of globalization. Western European banks such as UBS
Like it or not, globalization is here to stay. If you're a long-term investor, pay attention to the global scale of the businesses in which you invest. It could be debilitating or a real boon for a company.
Jennifer Schonberger does not own shares of any of the companies mentioned in this article. CNOOC and CEMEX are Motley Fool Global Gains picks. AFLAC and CEMEX are Motley Fool Stock Advisor picks. The Fool owns shares of CEMEX. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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