In May 2001, investors were paying up to $43.27 a share for FuelCell Energy (NASDAQ:FCEL). Hydrogen was the future, and fuel cell stocks were hot.
Fast-forward three and a half years, and FuelCell Energy's stock is selling for under $10 (up more than 10% for the day but down 78% since its all-time high in 2001). Driving the stock higher today is news the company's loss was tamer than analyst estimates. Yippee!
In the past (say, late 2000), an energy crisis would light up the fuel cell stocks. Not so now. Even $50 oil failed to ignite the stocks or discussion board conversation. Investors have heard the story before and now want real results.
Worrisome too is that competition is growing. For example, Motley Fool Income Investor recommendation Dow Chemical (NYSE:DOW) joined forces with General Motors (NYSE:GM) to provide what was touted as the largest commercial venture to power a plant using fuel cell technology. Gone was the image of little companies such as FuelCell and Plug Power (NASDAQ:PLUG) cornering the power market -- along with the image that GM was only interested in vehicle-based fuel cells.
From NASA fuel cell provider United Technologies (NYSE:UTX) to General Electric (NYSE:GE), who acquired fuel cell technology from Honeywell (NYSE:HON) in 2001, there are plenty of giants with wads of cash wanting to own a giant piece of this future market.
So, does FuelCell have a future? Certainly! The company is the world largest developer and manufacturer of high-temperature fuel cells. This is a real company with real sales -- although any company with a net loss (from continuing operations no less) that is twice revenue is hardly on solid footing.
One jewel is the company's research effort for a 70% energy efficiency hybrid fuel cell. With today's best natural gas-fired power plant technology trying to reach 60% thermal efficiency, the company has an answer to the question, "How can we conserve our resources?"
The downside to FuelCell Energy is its finances (and those losses that exceed revenue). But the company has been busy closing financing deals to help fund its operations.
FuelCell has the cash on hand to operate for well more than two years. But an ever-increasing number of shares (they rose from 39.3 million last year to 48.1 million now), a growing number of competitors (big and small), and no prospect for near-term profitability, make for an uncertain future and an extremely speculative investment.
Fool contributor W.D. Crotty does not own stock in any of the companies mentioned but is active on The Motley Fool discussion boards, where you can discuss topics such as Fuel Cells and Alternative Energy or individual stocks such as FuelCell Energy. The Motley Fool is investors talking to investors.
