Psst! Want to make a million bucks? Then read on.
Motley Fool Hidden Gems investing has nothing to do with getting rich quick. Sure, Tom Gardner's market-beating investment newsletter has had some quick astounding successes: Transkaryotic Therapies and Middleby have scored triples to date, Mine Safety Appliances could do so any day now, and CNS (NASDAQ:CNXS) and three others are in our stable of two-baggers.
But around here, we adopt more of a "get rich slow" philosophy. Save money. Invest it regularly. Let the magic of compounding returns work for you. At Hidden Gems, our objective is to invest for the long term. And I say "our objective" because we are all in this together, discussing prospects and finds alike on our discussion boards and helping Tom identify new small-cap prospects and keep track of developments at companies already discovered.
When examining a prospect for Motley Fool Hidden Gems nomination, we look for companies sporting IBM (NYSE:IBM)-like returns on equity, but packaged within market caps small enough that, like little Taser, they have plenty of room to grow. We look for free cash flow. We look for net cash on a balance sheet that is not always reflected in a company's market capitalization. We believe that companies sharing those traits can grow and beat the market over the years, just as Bed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ:BBBY) did. Just as Cytec Industries (NYSE:CYT) did. Just as Washington Mutual (NYSE:WM) did. We've all heard of these companies, and they've been right there under our noses, performing with excellence throughout the years.
In summary, we look for companies that combine business performance, cash-raising prowess, and substantial undervaluation to create the potential to double in value over three years.
This "two times in three years" formula will not always play out according to plan. Out of 50 Hidden Gems recommendations to date (including eight repeats), about one in four has lost us money. But 37 have made money for investors -- and a lot of it. Through hard work and patience, we are confident that over time those winners will continue to outweigh the losers, helping us soundly beat the market averages.
Do we expect our picks to continue achieving weighted average annual returns north of 30%? Not necessarily. Certainly, we don't expect to be able to accomplish that year in and year out. We'll pick disappointing companies from time to time. Or we'll pick incredibly good companies that, like Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), caught up in the wake of Merck's Vioxx disaster, will take a big hit with almost no warning whatsoever. And those occasional one-time losses of 30%, 40%, or 50% will no doubt hurt our overall performance.
So what's really achievable? Let's take a look at two possible scenarios for long-term growth among the Hidden Gems recommendations. Call them the "Retire Comfortably" and the "Set Your Grandkids Up for Life" scenarios.
Retire comfortably: $1 million in 45 years
We know Hidden Gems recommendations are averaging 30% annual returns. But let's not get greedy, and let's not extrapolate for decades out into the future what has been a start beyond even the most optimistic expectations. What if we dial back our expectations and assume a still very aggressive annualized 16.6% return on our initial investment? In that case, $1,000 would take 54 months to double. And under that scenario, it would take approximately 540 months for $1,000 to double 10 times to reach $1 million -- or 45 years.
Which should work out just about right for any Fools out there who have just graduated from college and have $1,000 to invest right now and who'd like a chance at retiring comfortably on the proceeds around about age 65.
Set your grandkids up for life: $1 million in 75 years
Now for scenario No. 2. There are plenty of market skeptics out there declaiming to all who will listen that the United States is entering a long-term secular bear market. The Oracle of Omaha says that we should be prepared to see overall stock market returns in the mid-single digits for the foreseeable future.
Ah, but we're not investing in index mutual funds, folks. The dedicated Fools at Hidden Gems are busily earning their keep helping our members to buy just the good companies out there in the market -- rather than buying an index that incorporates the returns of a grab bag of companies, be they good investments, bad investments, or Enron common stock. Worst case, we're pretty confident that over the long term, we can at the very least match, and more likely beat, the market's historical performance by dint of hard work, diligent research, and patient perseverance. With the broad stock market averaging just more than 10% annual returns across extended periods of time, that should assure us a reasonable chance of at least doubling our $1,000 within 7.5 years. Total time to $1 million: 75 years.
OK, admittedly, in 75 years' time, even you young'uns in short pants out there will be far into retirement age. While you'll likely get your million eventually, it may arrive too late to help pay for that vacation home in Florida. Why, in 75 years, even your kids will probably have retired. But what about your grandkids? And their kids? That $1 million could come in mighty handy to your Foolish dynasty.
As for you, well, there's still hope even under this worst-of-the-three scenario. Because the fact of the matter is that Fools don't invest $1,000 in one shot, then sit back and wait for the money to roll in -- whether that money is going to be 75, 45, or just 30 years in coming. We continue to save. We keep investing. Regularly. Meaning that, even at the market average, it would take a lot less than 75 years to accumulate $1 million.
And with 24 high-percentage ideas for winning investments coming to your email inbox every year -- plus a host of runner-up Watch List stocks and our patented stable of Tiny Gems as supplements -- you'll never be at a loss for investment ideas as you add to that initial $1,000 nest egg.
So, what are you waiting for? Time's marching on, and that money of yours isn't going to grow itself, uninvested. If you aspire to being a millionaire, are willing to put forth the effort to get there, and have the patience necessary to stick with quality companies through good times and bad, Motley Fool Hidden Gems just might be for you. Click here, and sign up for a free trial. We look forward to welcoming you to our merry band of prospectors for the stock market's hidden treasures.
This is an updated version of a Motley Fool Take published on May 28, 2004.
Fool contributor Rich Smith owns shares of Taser. Pfizer is a Motley Fool Inside Value recommendation. Taser is a Motley Fool Rule Breakers recommendation. Merck is a Motley Fool Income Investor recommendation. The Motley Fool has adisclosure policy.
