I had to chuckle when I heard about Green Mountain Coffee Roasters' (NASDAQ:GMCR) announcement of "new and improved flavors." The pessimist (and purist) in me wondered what's wrong with just plain old coffee. Obviously, I don't own stock in Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) -- though I wish I owned some Green Mountain shares, considering that it has risen by more than 76.7% over where it was 52 weeks ago.
Green Mountain's monumental announcements today include the introduction of three new flavored coffees: Cinnamon Cream Swirl, Mocha Nut Fudge, and Chocolate Raspberry. Much as I like a fresh raspberry, raspberry coffee sounds downright unpalatable. Stupid me! The company announced, too, that its "wildly popular" Wild Mountain Blueberry flavored coffee will now be available all year. Go figure. The company reports that drinkers of flavored coffee like variety. They don't just stick with one. Hmm.
Green Mountain, regardless, is an interesting company. It touts its Vermont heritage, and its quirky website offers up its 100-plus varieties of coffees with a full range of product details. Still, this is a company with $156.9 million in trailing sales and plenty of potential for growth -- both geographically (from its eastern U.S. core) and from its products aimed at the small office and K-Cup single-serve markets.
Green Mountain is looking for sales in fiscal 2005 (which ends in September) to jump 17% to 21% and expects fully diluted earnings of $1.15 to $1.19 a share. The company expects 2006 sales and earnings to increase 20% to 25%.
Last quarter's strong 20.9% increase in convenience-store sales was driven by strong shipments to ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) stores. Hey, you can't say Green Mountain doesn't go where the sales are!
While the company added Albertsons (NYSE:ABS) as an account in 2004, the supermarket segment was the only one to show a fall in sales last quarter -- a small 2.6% decrease -- but it reflects the brutal supermarket environment, where giants such as Procter & Gamble's (NYSE:PG) Folgers dominate and specialty coffees from Starbucks are also found.
Green Mountain stock sells for a premium multiple of 32 times trailing earnings and 25 times forward 2006 earnings. Despite all the good news, that's a bit rich for a company that is expected to grow earnings by 15% a year for the next five years. Still, if you like the coffee -- which sells under the company name and as Newman's Own Organics -- the company is at an inflection point where its small size and fast growth could push its valuation ever higher.
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Fool contributor W.D. Crotty does not own shares in any of the companies mentioned. Click here to see The Motley Fool's disclosure policy.
