Houston-based refiner Frontier Oil (NYSE:FTO) is fixin' to report its quarterly results come Wednesday. Y'all will just have to wait a bit longer for those numbers, but in the meantime, here's a look at what to expect.
What analysts say:
- Buy, sell, or waffle? Five Wall Streeters say buy, three say sell, and eight recommend digging in your spurs. Three hundred and fifty-five Motley Fool CAPS players collectively award the company a respectable four-star rating.
- Revenue. Analysts expect revenue of $1.2 billion, nearly 19% higher than year-ago results.
- Earnings. 90 days ago, the analysts were looking for $0.47 per share, but now they've hiked their expectations up to $0.78 per share, a 53% increase over last year.
What management says:
Last quarter, CEO James Gibbs -- a 25-year company veteran -- proclaimed his pride regarding Frontier's record yearly results. Looking forward, he pointed to the importance of keeping "expansion projects on time and on budget." While the company has stated it is on the lookout for acquisition opportunities, it also doesn't want to overpay. So as long as the market remains frothy, a lot of dollars are going toward organic growth that will enhance total throughput capacity at Frontier's two refineries. The company has a healthy $325 million capital budget scheduled for 2007.
What management does:
The Cheyenne, Wyo., and El Dorado, Kan., refineries are benefiting not only from elevated crack spreads, but also from light/heavy and sweet/sour crude differentials. They buy the most unloved crude on the market at a steep discount, and turn it into high quality end-market products. It's kind of like turning Spam into filet mignon. That's the story behind these numbers:
|
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Gross |
4% |
5% |
7.3% |
12.8% |
14% |
|
Operating |
1.5% |
2.9% |
5.1% |
11.2% |
12.3% |
|
Net |
0.1% |
0.1% |
2.4% |
6.9% |
7.9% |
One Fool says:
Judging by Valero's (NYSE:VLO) results, this ought to be a very strong quarter for Frontier, as well. Both companies are throwing off more cash than they'd care to reinvest in the business -- hence their increased share buyback programs.
In late April, Frontier announced a $100 million hike to its buyback authorization, which equates to about 2.6% of its present market cap. It's not the most aggressive program I've ever seen, but investors have to be pleased to see the company returning cash rather than throwing it at overpriced acquisitions.
Frontier was one of the market's 10 best stocks between 1997 and 2006. To find out why so many Fools expect Frontier to continue its run, register today for the community investor intelligence database that is Motley Fool CAPS.
Fool contributor Toby Shute does not own shares of any company named above. The Fool has a disclosure policy.
