Warren Buffett's partner, Charlie Munger, once said, "I think I've been in the top 5% of my age cohort all my life in understanding the power of incentives, and all my life I've underestimated it. And never a year passes but I get some surprise that pushes my limit a little farther."
When corporate boards use bad incentives for management's pay, disaster often ensues. (Think Lehman Brothers.) Incentives based on singular metrics such as revenue growth, EBITDA, ROE, or earning per share are easily manipulated and gamed. Fortunately, there is a better way: EVA momentum.
Creator Bennett Stewart of EVA Dimensions, who also co-created EVA (Economic Value Added), calls EVA momentum "the only percent metric where more is always better than less. It always increases when managers do things that make economic sense."
So what does this mean for investors? A positive reading on EVA momentum means a company has created value by increasing its EVA, a negative EVA momentum means that EVA and thus value have decreased, signaling a destruction of value. EVA momentum is one of the few, if not the only, performance measure with such a clear dividing line between good and bad performance.
The best companies, then, create value in excess of their cost of capital, as reflected by positive EVA momentum. The higher the EVA momentum, the more value management's creating.
Let's look at ATP Oil & Gas
|ATP Oil & Gas||4%||(6.8%)||(54.1%)||5|
Source: EVA Dimensions LLC.
ATP Oil & Gas made less than its cost of capital this past year, destroying shareholder value with an EVA momentum of -54.1%, placing it in the bottom 5th percentile of all oil and gas companies. Callon Petroleum's top-ranking 385.9% EVA momentum over the past 12 months puts it in the 95th percentile of all oil and gas companies. Stone Energy and Energy Partners both had positive momentums this past year, creating shareholder value. Hopefully, ATP Oil & Gas can turn around its performance in 2011.
Businesses with high EVA momentum are effectively creating value. It will be interesting to see how useful this extremely new metric proves for companies and investors. If it lives up to its promise, EVA momentum will be an essential tool in investors' arsenals.
Another tool for better investing
Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' fundamental value. That's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.
We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service.
Dan Dzombak recommends you read I Will Tell You How To Become Rich. He owns shares and LEAPS on ATPG. His musings and articles he finds interesting can be found on his Twitter account: @DanDzombak. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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