Many retirees have Oct. 15 circled on their calendars. What's so special about that date? Two important things happen.
First, the official calendar of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) includes the scheduled release of Consumer Price Index data on Oct. 15. Second, the Social Security Administration (SSA) uses one of the numbers in that BLS report to finalize next year's cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), and it typically announces the amount of the increase that same morning.
That's how the process would normally work, but maybe not this time. Retirees might have to wait longer than expected to find out their 2026 Social Security COLA.
Image source: Getty Images.
The ripple effects of a government shutdown
The problem is that the federal government isn't fully operational. Legislation authorizing the government to spend money on its operations beyond Oct. 1, 2025, didn't pass Congress, resulting in a government shutdown.
Last week, the House of Representatives approved a stopgap bill that would have funded the federal government through Nov. 20. However, this legislation did not pass in the Senate. Sixty votes are required to pass a spending bill in the upper chamber -- and those votes aren't there for the bill it received.
What does all this have to do with the Social Security COLA? The Department of Labor (DOL) released a contingency plan last Friday outlining the actions that it would take in the event of a federal government shutdown. The department stated that it intended "to ensure that DOL agencies can perform an orderly suspension of programs and operations should a lapse occur, while continuing those limited activities authorized to continue during a lapse."
BLS is part of the Department of Labor and is one of the agencies that "will suspend all operations." In particular, the DOL's contingency plan said, "Economic data that are scheduled to be released during the lapse will not be released."
If no BLS inflation data is released on Oct. 15, SSA won't be able to calculate the 2026 Social Security COLA.
How long could the delay be?
When will retirees find out how much their "raise" for next year will be? It depends entirely on how long the federal government shutdown lasts.
These shutdowns are more common than you might think. Over the last 50 years, the federal government has run out of funding 21 times. Both the shortest and longest shutdowns occurred in the first Trump administration.
In 2018, the federal government shut down twice. One lasted for three days, but the other ended after only a few hours. But in 2019, the government shut down for 35 days because the two major political parties disagreed about allocating money to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border.
There are another 13 days to go before Oct. 15, when the BLS inflation report release and the Social Security COLA announcement are scheduled. Congress may pass a funding bill for the federal government before then. History is on the side of the optimists: Of the 21 shutdowns over the last five decades, only four lasted at least 13 days.
Social Security payments won't be halted
Importantly, people's actual monthly Social Security payments won't be impacted by the federal government shutdown. Benefits will continue to flow (although Social Security "checks" won't, since the SSA recently converted to delivering all payments digitally.
Could the COLA itself be delayed? For that to happen, the shutdown would have to last for three months. Such a scenario is highly unlikely because of the economic impact it would have.
Retirees should be able to count on receiving a benefit increase come January. The Senior Citizens' League, a nonprofit organization that advocates for seniors, projects the 2026 COLA will be 2.7%. Unfortunately, most retirees probably won't see all of this increase hit their checking accounts or savings accounts.
Medicare Part B premiums are expected to soar by 11.6% next year. Since most retirees have those premiums deducted directly from their Social Security payments, that high Medicare increase will offset a significant portion of the COLA.
We'll know the exact amount of next year's Social Security COLA... sometime.
