Now more than ever, a comfortable retirement depends on secure, stable investments. Unfortunately, the right stocks for retirement won't just fall into your lap. In this series, I look at 10 measures to show what makes a great retirement-oriented stock.
The food industry used to be a stable, boring business, with staples like cereal generally providing predictable but unexcitingly slow growth. Lately, though, food giant Kellogg
The right stocks for retirees
With decades to go before you need to tap your investments, you can take greater risks, weighing the chance of big losses against the potential for mind-blowing returns. But as retirement approaches, you no longer have the luxury of waiting out a downturn.
Sure, you still want good returns, but you also need to manage your risk and protect yourself against bear markets, which can maul your finances at the worst possible time. The right stocks combine both of these elements in a single investment.
When scrutinizing a stock, retirees should look for:
- Size. Most retirees would rather not take a flyer on unproven businesses. Bigger companies may lack their smaller counterparts' growth potential, but they do offer greater security.
- Consistency. While many investors look for fast-growing companies, conservative investors want to see steady, consistent gains in revenue, free cash flow, and other key metrics. Slow growth won't make headlines, but it will help prevent the kind of ugly surprises that suddenly torpedo a stock's share price.
- Stock stability. Conservative retirement investors prefer investments that move less dramatically than typical stocks, and they particularly want to avoid big losses. These investments will give up some gains during bull markets, but they won't fall as far or as fast during bear markets. Beta measures volatility, but we also want a track record of solid performance as well.
- Valuation. No one can afford to pay too much for a stock, even if its prospects are good. Using normalized earnings multiples helps smooth out one-time effects, giving you a longer-term context.
- Dividends. Most of all, retirees look for stocks that can provide income through dividends. Retirees want healthy payouts now and consistent dividend growth over time -- as long as it doesn't jeopardize the company's financial health.
With those factors in mind, let's take a closer look at Kellogg.
What We Want to See
Pass or Fail?
|Size||Market cap > $10 billion||$17.6 billion||Pass|
|Consistency||Revenue growth > 0% in at least four of five past years||3 years||Fail|
|Free cash flow growth > 0% in at least four of past five years||2 years||Fail|
|Stock stability||Beta < 0.9||0.45||Pass|
|Worst loss in past five years no greater than 20%||(14.1%)||Pass|
|Valuation||Normalized P/E < 18||16.10||Pass|
|Dividends||Current yield > 2%||3.5%||Pass|
|5-year dividend growth > 10%||8.1%||Fail|
|Streak of dividend increases >= 10 years||8 years||Fail|
|Payout ratio < 75%||49.8%||Pass|
|Total score||6 out of 10|
Source: S&P Capital IQ. Total score = number of passes.
Since we looked at Kellogg last year, the company has picked up a point, with its valuation falling slightly. Yet even though the stock has fallen 10%, Kellogg has an interesting opportunity that could prove to be a long-term winner.
Kellogg has long been a big name in the breakfast-food area. With its many popular cereals, the company goes head-to-head against rival General Mills
Yet a big problem for Kellogg has been that other segments of the food industry have been more lucrative. Kraft Foods
That's why Kellogg investors should be ecstatic that the company was able to swoop in and buy the Pringles division from Procter & Gamble
For retirees and other conservative investors, Kellogg's lengthening track record of higher dividends is a good sign of its confidence in its future. The current yield is rich enough to make shareholders happy as well. Kellogg definitely deserves a close look from retirement investors as a candidate for a conservative investment portfolio.
Finding exactly the right stock to retire with is a tough task, but it's not impossible. Searching for the best candidates will help improve your investing skills, and teach you how to separate the right stocks from the risky ones.
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