Boring Portfolio Report
ANN ARBOR, Mich., November 13, 1996 -- Most market averages were down for
much of Wednesday but managed to close higher with the help of afternoon
mini-rallies. Such volatility is not entirely unexpected as the market moves
toward options expirations on Friday. For the seventh straight session, the
Dow advanced, this time by 8 points to (yawn) another record high. The S&P
rose 0.22%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.33%.
The Boring Portfolio gained 0.13% in net value, helped by strength in Cisco
and Solectron (which set another new high today) but hampered by continued
weakness in Prime Medical.
PMSI fell another two-bits today on unprecedented volume of nearly 800,000
shares. That would have constituted two week's worth of trading not too long
ago. For a few minutes today, the stock slipped below the $10 mark.
As I noted last night, every shred of evidence I've unearthed indicates that
absolutely nothing has changed in the business. I called another of the six
analysts who follow PMSI (and he had spoken with the company earlier in the
day), and he concurred.
No analysts have revised their ratings on PMSI recently. DLJ, Principle,
Southcoast, Southeast, and Bradford are all in the range of $0.63 to $0.68
in terms of projected EPS for 1996. Prudential is listed in some ratings
summaries with a $0.43 estimate, but according to Pru that number assumes
fully taxed earnings, whereas the other analysts are incorporating PMSI's
tax-loss carryforwards into their estimates. Pru's comparable (i.e., partly
taxed) number is $0.67 -- right in the middle of the pack. Next year's estimates
are also unchanged, as far as I can tell.
As I said yesterday, I have no idea when the PMSI sell-off will finally exhaust
itself. At some point, though, the entity (or entities) who are pretty obviously
engaged in unwinding their positions will abate. Meantime, there's nothing
I can do about the sell-off, and I certainly have no intention of cashing
in at this ridiculous price. So I just sit and watch, slightly amused by
the whole situation, to tell you the truth. (And in case you were wondering,
I am personally in the red with the stock, as well.)
Moving from the ridiculous to the sublime, Borders Group pre-released its
quarterly earnings this morning. Total sales for the company's fiscal third
quarter ending Oct. 27 rose to $413.5 million -- up 14.2% over last year.
Consolidated net loss for the quarter was $2.7 million, or $0.06 per share.
That was not only a substantial improvement over last year's 15 cent loss,
it was also 3 pennies better than analysts were expecting.
Not surprisingly, BGP rose on roughly double its average trading volume today.
Many folks (including me) await a full breakdown of the numbers along with
the company's comments, and that will occur tomorrow morning. The Motley
Fool will provide full details, as is our policy.
There's one other thing in today's abbreviated earnings report worth noting
now. Borders superstore sales were up 42.3%, to $212.0 million. Same store
sales increased 8.6%. At Waldenbooks, sales of $197.9 million were off 3.8%
from a year ago, while same store sales were basically flat (-0.2%). I interpret
both the Borders and Waldens numbers as good news -- the former for obvious
reasons and the latter because they indicate that the company is succeeding
in its strategy of trimming back the least profitable Waldenbooks stores
and retaining the ones that can hold their own, at a minimum.
Lastly, the day would not be complete without a bit of techno-news from Cisco.
The company announced that Telecom Finland, which operates the world's largest
network based on ATM (Asynchronous Transfer Mode) technology, has deployed
Cisco's LightStream ATM switches as both a backbone and access network solution
for its expanding ATM-network.
According to the press release, "the Finnish deployment is one more example
of Cisco's growing presence as a strategic supplier to telecommunications
carriers and other service providers worldwide." Also, according to Dataquest,
Cisco is the tenth largest vendor of telecom equipment in the world, based
on total sales.
As Johnny Carson might say, "I did not know that."
Wednesday, November 13, 1996
Stock Change Bid
--------------------
BGP + 3/8 36.13
CSL --- 54.75
CSCO +1 1/8 66.00
GNT --- 39.75
OXHP - 7/8 53.13
PMSI - 1/4 10.00
SLR + 3/4 58.88
Day Month Year History
BORING +0.13% 3.11% 15.77% 15.77%
S&P 500 +0.22% 3.67% 17.62% 17.62%
NASDAQ +0.33% 3.21% 21.11% 21.11%
Rec'd # Security In At Now Change
2/28/96 200 Borders Gr 22.51 36.13 60.47%
2/2/96 200 Green Tree 30.39 39.75 30.81%
6/26/96 100 Cisco Syst 53.90 66.00 22.45%
5/24/96 100 Oxford Hea 48.02 53.13 10.62%
10/15/96 100 Solectron 54.52 58.88 7.98%
8/13/96 100 Carlisle C 52.65 54.75 3.99%
3/8/96 400 Prime Medi 10.07 10.00 -0.68%
Rec'd # Security In At Value Change
2/28/96 200 Borders Gr 4502.49 7225.00 $2722.51
2/2/96 200 Green Tree 6077.49 7950.00 $1872.51
6/26/96 100 Cisco Syst 5389.99 6600.00 $1210.01
5/24/96 100 Oxford Hea 4802.49 5312.50 $510.01
10/15/96 100 Solectron 5452.49 5887.50 $435.01
8/13/96 100 Carlisle C 5264.99 5475.00 $210.01
3/8/96 400 Prime Medi 4027.49 4000.00 -$27.49
CASH $15435.93
TOTAL $57885.93
Transmitted: 11/13/96
The Boring Portfolio
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