Boring Portfolio Report
ANN ARBOR, Mich., November 14, 1996 -- Another day, another record. The Dow
closed above 6,300 (a record). The S&P gained 0.65% to set its own new
high: 766. And the Nasdaq popped nearly 10 points (+0.77%) to set a new high
of its own: 1270.
Not so for the Boring Portfolio. It lost $137.50, or 0.24%, as Borders Group
gave back some of its recent gains following yesterday's pre-release of third
quarter earnings information, and Cisco and Green Tree slipped a bit, as
well. On the upside, Solectron gained $3/4 to extend its push into record
territory: $60 dead ahead. Carlisle (trading ex-dividend today) and the big
Ox had good days, too. Prime Medical stabilized at $10, with volume continuing
at a torrid pace: today, it was over 639,000 shares.
Other than the
Borders
conference call with analysts this morning, I have nothing to report
on any Borefolio stocks. Not even a Cisco techno-blurb. So I offer you some
highlights from my coverage of the Borders teleconference -- which the company
and I could have conducted via tin cans and a string, since Borders HQ is
barely three blocks from my office.
As noted here yesterday, Borders Group reported a net loss of $2.7 million,
or $0.06 per share as compared to a $0.15 per share loss for last fiscal
year's 3Q. Analysts had been expecting a $0.09 per share loss. Consolidated
sales increased 14.2% to $413.5 million. Gross margins expanded to 24.0%,
from 22.8% last year.
As all Gaul was divided into three parts, so it is with Borders Group: there
are the namesake superstores, the mall-based Waldenbooks chain, and a rudimentary
Planet Music group. The company's strategy is to prune away any underperforming
Waldens, while using the cash flow from the remainder to help finance continued
expansion of the superstores.
The numbers from this quarter demonstrate that the plan is precisely on track.
Sales increased 42.3% for the Borders superstores and declined only 3.8%
for Waldenbooks, better than expected. More to the point, comparable store
sales for Borders increased 8.6% for the quarter, while "comps" at Waldens
were virtually flat -- again, better than expected.
At the end of 3Q there were 142 superstores, an increase of 15 during the
quarter. Subsequent to quarter-end, Borders opened an additional 6 superstores.
The company expects to end the year with 157 stores, or an increase of 41
during the year. Meantime, Waldenbooks closed 5 units and opened 5 during
the quarter, leaving the total at 966 stores. In the conference call, management
noted that their plan was to close 50 of the underperforming Waldenbooks
stores in this fiscal year and have closed 26 to date.
In the conference call, management said they were "confident but not
over-confident" about the all-critical fourth quarter. They see a "pretty
good" line-up of new titles coming in, including new books by Michael Crichton,
Walter Cronkite, and others; but they do not yet see a "block-buster" on
a par with Howard Sterns's book last year. (Howard Sterns??)
This year has a compressed holiday shopping season due to the lateness of
Thanksgiving. As a consequence, favorable weather conditions and the ability
of stores to manage the holiday crush become particularly important. Some
analysts have suggested that the compressed season could help bookstores,
because they offer a convenient way to find something for everyone on your
gift list. Since Borders has never experienced a compressed shopping season
since the advent of the superstores, they do not know how that will turn
out.
The company encouraged analysts to increase their estimates for the current
full fiscal year to reflect the upside surprise in the third quarter but
not to increase their Q4 estimates yet, owing to the inability to foresee
yet how the weather and capacity variables will turn out. Management noted
that they operated 460 Walden kiosks in malls last holiday season, with good
results, and they intend to operate at least that many this year.
The company has also launched a holiday advertising campaign on television,
something they did very little of last year. I haven't seen any of 'em yet,
but perhaps that's because they've been focused in markets where new stores
have opened. If you see one of the ads, let us know what you think.
Thursday, November 14, 1996
Stock Change Bid
--------------------
BGP - 7/8 35.25
CSL + 5/8 55.38
CSCO - 7/8 65.13
GNT - 1/2 39.25
OXHP + 7/8 54.00
PMSI --- 10.00
SLR + 3/4 59.63
Day Month Year History
BORING -0.24% 2.86% 15.50% 15.50%
S&P 500 +0.65% 4.34% 18.38% 18.38%
NASDAQ +0.77% 4.00% 22.04% 22.04%
Rec'd # Security In At Now Change
2/28/96 200 Borders Gr 22.51 35.25 56.58%
2/2/96 200 Green Tree 30.39 39.25 29.17%
6/26/96 100 Cisco Syst 53.90 65.13 20.83%
5/24/96 100 Oxford Hea 48.02 54.00 12.44%
10/15/96 100 Solectron 54.52 59.63 9.35%
8/13/96 100 Carlisle C 52.65 55.38 5.18%
3/8/96 400 Prime Medi 10.07 10.00 -0.68%
Rec'd # Security In At Value Change
2/28/96 200 Borders Gr 4502.49 7050.00 $2547.51
2/2/96 200 Green Tree 6077.49 7850.00 $1772.51
6/26/96 100 Cisco Syst 5389.99 6512.50 $1122.51
5/24/96 100 Oxford Hea 4802.49 5400.00 $597.51
10/15/96 100 Solectron 5452.49 5962.50 $510.01
8/13/96 100 Carlisle C 5264.99 5537.50 $272.51
3/8/96 400 Prime Medi 4027.49 4000.00 -$27.49
CASH $15435.93
TOTAL $57748.43
Transmitted: 11/14/96
The Boring Portfolio
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