Boring Portfolio

Boring Portfolio Report
Thursday, January 16, 1997
by Greg Markus (MF Boring)

ANN ARBOR, Mich. (Jan. 16) -- A good day for stocks, and an even better day for Boring stocks. The Dow gained 38 points (+0.56%), more than recapturing Wednesday's loss and setting another new high: 6765.37. The S&P 500 rose 0.33%, while the Nasdaq advanced 0.51%. As it has been virtually every day in this short new year, trading volume on the major U.S. exchanges was enormous -- nearly as feverish as the rush to sign on to AOL in the evening!

The Boring Portfolio gained nearly a full percentage point in value Thursday. Five stocks advanced, while four declined.

The winners included shares of Carlisle Companies (NYSE: CSL), which rose $1 3/8 to $32 on its first day of trading on a post-split basis. This establishes a new high for CSL. It also moves the stock into third place in terms of absolute percentage gains for the Borefolio, passing Green Tree Financial (NYSE: GNT). CSL has risen 21.56% (plus dividends) since joining the Borefolio on August 13,1996. Not bad for a collection of companies that produce everything from golf cart wheels to roofing materials to non-asbestos brake linings to cafeteria trays.

With so brisk a rise in the share price, it makes sense to consider whether the stock has gotten ahead of itself. Analysts are projecting Carlisle to earn $2.07 per share in 1997 (split-adjusted). That would constitute a 17% advance over an expected $1.77 for 1996. Earnings grew approximately 26% in 1996, and the EPS estimates for 1997 have been moving up steadily over the past few months, as Carlisle has made a number of sensible acquisitions. The stock also pays a modest dividend. Using a 17 multiple and the $2.07 EPS estimate gives us a near-term target price of $35 for CSL.

That's not all that far ahead of the stock's present price. On the other hand, it suggests that the stock is probably not over-valued -- no mean feat in today's market. At any rate, the calculations provide me with no particular reason to sell in advance of the report of fourth quarter earnings, which will occur early next month.

Bravo, Carlisle!

Bravo, too, to Tidewater (NYSE: TDW). The Tide rolled for a $1 5/8 gain today on solid volume of 546,400 shares. That establishes a new high for the stock. As noted here last night, Tidewater will be reporting results for its fiscal third quarter on the morning of Jan. 21, and I will be covering the follow-up conference call. The consensus of analyst estimates for that quarter, as reported in First Call, is $0.61.

Solectron (NYSE: SLR) merits a nod of approval, as well. SLR gained $2 1/4 on above-average trading volume of 369,700 shares. It probably didn't hurt that stocks of leading computer hardware companies such as Digital Equipment, Sun Micro, IBM, and Intel were strong today. Solectron is not merely basking in the reflected glow of some of its customers, though. For its part, the company's recently-acquired Force Computers subsidiary announced yesterday two new products: the Pentura(TM) 8710 and the SPARC CPU-8VT.

The former is a high-performance CompactPCI system based on Intel's Pentium microprocessor and Microsoft's Windows NT operating system. The Pentura 8710 is an embedded computer system that will be of interest to makers of advanced telecommunications, medical, and industrial equipment. The SPARC CPU, as its name implies, is based on the SPARC chip and will also find its way into high-end telecomm, medical imaging, industrial control, and military command and control applications. Click over to http://www.forcecomputers.com to learn more about Force Computers and their products!

Today's Numbers


Stock  Change    Bid
--------------------
BGP   -  7/8   36.13
CSL   +1 3/8   32.00
CSCO  -  1/8   70.25
GNT   -  1/4   35.75
ORCL  -  1/8   41.13
OXHP  +1 1/4   54.63
PMSI  +  1/8   11.75
SLR   +2 1/4   58.00
TDW   +1 5/8   51.38
                   Day   Month    Year  History
        BORING   +0.96%   2.56%   2.56%  18.02%
        S&P 500  +0.33%   3.92%   3.92%  23.83%
        NASDAQ:  +0.51%   3.83%   3.83%  28.77%

    Rec'd   #  Security     In At       Now    Change

  2/28/96  200 Borders Gr    22.51     36.13    60.47%
  6/26/96  100 Cisco Syst    53.90     70.25    30.33%
  8/13/96  200 Carlisle C    26.32     32.00    21.56%
   2/2/96  200 Green Tree    30.39     35.75    17.65%
   3/8/96  400 Prime Medi    10.07     11.75    16.70%
  5/24/96  100 Oxford Hea    48.02     54.63    13.74%
 12/23/96  100 Tidewater     46.52     51.38    10.42%
 10/15/96  100 Solectron     54.52     58.00     6.37%
 11/21/96  100 Oracle Cor    48.65     41.13   -15.47%

    Rec'd   #  Security     In At     Value    Change

  2/28/96  200 Borders Gr  4502.49   7225.00  $2722.51
  6/26/96  100 Cisco Syst  5389.99   7025.00  $1635.01
  8/13/96  200 Carlisle C  5264.99   6400.00  $1135.01
   2/2/96  200 Green Tree  6077.49   7150.00  $1072.51
   3/8/96  400 Prime Medi  4027.49   4700.00   $672.51
  5/24/96  100 Oxford Hea  4802.49   5462.50   $660.01
 12/23/96  100 Tidewater   4652.49   5137.50   $485.01
 10/15/96  100 Solectron   5452.49   5800.00   $347.51
 11/21/96  100 Oracle Cor  4864.99   4112.50  -$752.49

                             CASH   $5999.08
                            TOTAL  $59011.58



Transmitted: 1/16/97 7:42 PM (borenmbr)