The artificial intelligence gold rush has shifted toward niche hardware and decision intelligence software. Investors now face a choice between BigBear.ai (BBAI +0.00%) and Rigetti Computing (RGTI +0.97%) for high-risk, high-reward exposure.
BigBear.ai focuses on decision intelligence, helping government and commercial clients navigate complex logistics via AI. Rigetti Computing operates at the bleeding edge of quantum hardware, developing processors intended to solve problems traditional computers cannot. Both companies are early-stage players in the technology sector, attracting investors looking for disruptive growth.
BBAI & RGTI: Performance Comparison
Key Financial Metrics
The case for BigBear.ai
BigBear.ai is a mission-ready AI company that provides decision intelligence and AI-powered solutions, positioning it among speculative tech stocks. The firm focuses on global supply chains and cybersecurity for both commercial and government customers. Customer concentration adds a layer of risk to the business, as 51% of revenue in 2025 came from customers contributing over 10% each. The company is using a $100 million equity offering to pursue acquisitions and expand its technology portfolio.
In FY 2025, revenue reached nearly $127.7 million, falling roughly 19.3% year over year. The company reported a net loss of approximately $293.9 million for the period, compared to a $295.5 million net loss in 2024. This trend shows that while losses are narrowing slightly, the company faces a significant negative net margin as it tries to scale its software solutions. The top-line decline suggests that securing and expanding government contracts remains a hurdle for consistent growth.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio was 0.0x, meaning total debt does not exceed shareholder equity. The current ratio stands at roughly 1.8x, suggesting the ability to pay short-term obligations with current assets. Free cash flow, which is cash from operations minus capital expenditures, was negative $46.3 million. This negative figure highlights that the company is currently consuming cash to fund its growth and acquisition initiatives.
The case for Rigetti Computing
Rigetti Computing builds full-stack quantum computers, including superconducting processors and cloud services. Its applications span drug discovery and logistics for government, academic, and commercial clients. In its latest annual report, filed for FY 2025, the company noted that U.S. government entities accounted for nearly 90.2% of its total revenue. It maintains distribution partnerships with cloud giants Amazon (AMZN +0.12%) and Microsoft (MSFT +3.66%). A major collaboration with Quanta also focuses on developing quantum computing components.
In FY 2025, revenue reached nearly $7.1 million, which is a decline of roughly 34.3% from the prior year. The company reported a net loss of approximately $216.2 million, which widened from a $201.0 million net loss in 2024. These figures reflect the early-stage nature of the quantum computing industry, where research and development costs far exceed current sales. The net margin of approximately negative 3,050.4% highlights the significant gap between the company's early revenue and its operational spending.
As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio was 0.0x, indicating that the firm has no total debt relative to its equity. The current ratio was approximately 37.4x, which suggests a very high level of liquidity to meet short-term liabilities. Free cash flow, calculating cash from operations minus capital expenditures, was negative $77.2 million. This negative cash flow indicates the high capital intensity required to build and maintain sophisticated quantum hardware and fabrication facilities.
Risk profile comparison
BigBear.ai faces significant risks, particularly its heavy reliance on government and public sector customers whose contracts can be terminated for convenience. The company is also managing a material class action lawsuit related to previous accounting errors and mandatory financial statement restatements. Integration of its artificial intelligence technologies also poses operational hurdles. Furthermore, the company depends on third-party cloud infrastructure and must compete with massive, well-capitalized defense firms that possess larger research budgets.
Rigetti Computing faces substantial technical risks as it attempts to achieve quantum advantage, a goal with no guarantee of success. The company is dealing with a class action lawsuit and a history of significant net losses and accumulated deficits. It is highly dependent on a small number of government customers and public cloud providers such as Amazon and Microsoft. Additionally, the business requires heavy research and development spending for its fabrication facility upgrades and intellectual property protection.
Valuation comparison
BigBear.ai appears cheaper based on its P/S ratio, which compares market capitalization to sales over the past twelve months.
| Metric | BigBear.ai | Rigetti Computing |
|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E | N/A | N/A |
| P/S ratio | 10.2x | 418.1x |
Valuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.
Which stock would I buy in 2026?
I'd go with BigBear.ai. Both companies are early-stage, unprofitable, and asking investors to bet on technologies that are still proving themselves, so this is not a comfortable pick either way.
That said, BigBear.ai has something Rigetti is still working toward: revenue from customers that are difficult to displace. Its AI-powered decision intelligence platform is embedded in national security workflows, and the backlog keeps growing. The path to profitability is long, but the direction is encouraging.
Rigetti is one of the few companies that has actually built and deployed quantum computing hardware at a scale that serious researchers are paying to access. A CHIPS Act funding letter of intent adds a layer of government validation. But revenue remains tiny, and the gap between bookings momentum and actual recognized revenue is something investors need to understand before buying in. Quantum computing's commercial moment is getting closer, but it has not fully arrived yet.
If I'm choosing between two speculative early-stage companies, I want to own the one already generating revenue from customers that are hard to walk away from. That's the more grounded starting point for a patient investor.
