Winnebago Industries (WGO -9.51%) reported fiscal 2025 third-quarter results on June 19, 2025, which included net revenue guidance of $2.7 billion–$2.8 billion for FY2025 and sharply reduced adjusted EPS guidance to $1.20–$1.70 per diluted share. Management outlined continued operational inefficiencies in the Winnebago-branded Motorhome segment, counterbalancing improvement in Marine and selective growth in Grand Design and Newmar.
This summary focuses on inventory discipline, tariff exposure, and segment leadership as key themes from the call.
Inventory Discipline and Market Share Trade-Off
Management confirmed a target of two times inventory turn (inventory sold and replaced twice per year) as a long-term operational standard, a benchmark that aligns with dealer goals and industry best practice. While taking a measured approach in shipments, Winnebago acknowledged its willingness to forgo short-term share gains for channel health, amid an industry where some larger competitors are accelerating wholesale shipments despite demand softness.
"We are potentially sacrificing a little bit of shipment share in the spirit of trying to remain disciplined and try to target that two turn level for most of our brands and business. ... I don't think you're gonna see that number by the end of our fourth quarter fiscal 2025. But it is something we'll continue to pursue during fiscal '26."
— Michael Happe, President and Chief Executive Officer
This disciplined approach increases near-term financial pressure but positions the company for improved dealer partnerships, lower discounting, and healthier supply-demand dynamics when demand recovers.
Tariff Risk and Targeted Price Responses
Recent U.S. tariff policy escalations directly affect a range of imported RV and marine components, especially motorized chassis and selected raw materials, representing a higher dollar exposure than the percentage of imported parts would suggest. There is a forecasted unmitigated tariff risk of $0.50–$0.75 to diluted EPS for FY2026, with company-wide model year 2026 price increases in the low-to-mid-single-digit percent range already partially factored in to offset short-term effects in fiscal 2025 and early fiscal 2026.
"At the tariff rates that are currently in place, as communicated by the administration, we believe we have a potential net risk of between 50¢ and $0.75 of diluted earnings per share for fiscal 2026 as a result of escalating costs that we are monitoring with our suppliers. We will continue to work with our supply base to further mitigate this exposure. But in the event we are unable to mitigate this risk, and we conclude that we should not pursue price increases to offset this risk, the $0.50 to $0.75 impact to diluted EPS would be realized."
— Bryan Hughes, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Persistent tariff exposure could depress profitability if further supplier mitigation tactics or pricing power prove insufficient, necessitating careful monitoring of consumer demand elasticity to price adjustments.
Marine and Newmar Segments Drive Positive Divergence
Despite broad retail headwinds, the Marine segment achieved a 15% net revenue increase in Q3 FY2025 and over 11% unit growth in the same period, with Barletta's share of the U.S. aluminum pontoon market reaching 9.2% and Chris-Craft successfully launching lower-priced models like the Sportster series. Separately, Newmar’s Class A diesel market share exceeded 33% in the latest reported period, and dealer inventory for the brand was halved since 2019 under Winnebago ownership.
"the Newmar business is as healthy today profitability wise. Yield from a yield standpoint as at any time since we have owned them since 2019. That emanates from, you know, primarily having a very strong product line Their class a diesel business continues to be very healthy. I think their class a diesel share the latest numbers are are up to somewhere in the 33% plus range. We've seen Class A diesel share increases now for, I believe, at least four consecutive years."
— Michael Happe, President and Chief Executive Officer
These segments help diversify company risk and partially offset the Motorhome segment underperformance, supporting long-term margin resilience.
Looking Ahead
Management lowered full-year adjusted EPS guidance for FY2025 to $1.20–$1.70 and consolidated revenue guidance for FY2025 to $2.7 billion–$2.8 billion, citing dealer destocking and weak RV retail demand as ongoing headwinds. Additional margin recapture in the Winnebago Motorhome segment is targeted in FY2026, while net leverage reduction remains a priority, with the current net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio at 4.8 times as of Q3 FY2025 and a goal of 0.9x to 1.5x. No explicit retail or shipment recovery timing for 2026 was provided, with further guidance deferred until the October 2025 full-year results call.