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Aon PLC  (NYSE:AON)
Q3 2018 Earnings Conference Call
Oct. 26, 2018, 8:30 a.m. ET

Contents:

  • Prepared Remarks
  • Questions and Answers
  • Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good morning, and thank you for holding. Welcome to Aon Plc's Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all parties will be in a listen-only mode until the question-and-answer session of today's call. If anyone has an objection, you may disconnect your line at this time.

I would also like to remind all parties that this call is being recorded, and that it is important to note that some of the comments in today's call may constitute certain statements that are forward-looking in nature as defined by the Private Securities Reform Act of 1995.

Such statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual result to differ materially from historical results or those anticipated. Information concerning risk factors that could cause such differences are described in the press release covering our third quarter 2018 results as well as having been posted on our website.

Now it is my pleasure to turn the call over to Greg Case, CEO of Aon Plc. Please go ahead Greg.

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to our third quarter conference call. Joining me today is our CFO, Christa Davies. In addition, we are excited to have our Co-Presidents, Eric Anderson and Mike O'Connor, joining the call today.

As highlighted last quarter, we intend to use our time on the call to log in more insight into the longer term view for the firm, with greater transparency, and strategic initiatives. Also, like last quarter, we posted our detailed financial presentation on our website.

We believe this will further provides a more thoughtful long-term focus toward operational performance, including examples of investment and growth areas that are strengthening our capability to serve clients. Mike and Eric will be great additions to this discussion to give you another perspective on the power of leading Aon United.

With that opening, we'd like to start by noting that our colleagues around the world delivered another strong result for the third quarter, with positive performance across each of our key metrics, including, 6% organic revenue growth, 190 basis points of margin expansion, 18% operating income growth and 34% growth in EPS; and a similar strong performance across our key metrics year-to-date reinforcing our continued long-term momentum, which Christa will discuss a little bit more in a bit.

This continued momentum is a direct result of a strategic action we progressively taken to build upon the idea of leading Aon United and the impact of having upscale on our business. As discussed last quarter we've been laying the foundation for Aon United for over a decade evolving our portfolio investing in new content capability and the line inclined demand through programs like Aon Client Promise all focused on increasing our relevance and strengthening our ability to deliver value for clients.

While recently over the last few quarters we've taken steps to further reinforce and amplify this progress. In doing so we've truly entered the era of Aon United with structural changes that break down barriers and make it easier to deliver the best of the firm to clients, a single leadership team, a single P& L, a single brand, a single operating model.

Most compelling, a United Global Professional Services Firm. Just last week we announced another reinforcing step in this journey. The formation of our new ventures crew, a team of leaders from across the firm who've created additional capacity to build on our already industry-leading record and innovation and further accelerate new sources of value for clients led by Tony Goland as Chief Innovation Officer.

The benefits for the crew in our global firm effectively works together are distinctive and unmatched in the industry and are unlocking significant value for our clients through greater innovation and superior tailor-made solutions that fit their specific business objectives.

Let me give you two quick examples. The first is an example of how our strategic investment in client-serving capabilities led to connections across solution lines and geographies and our core business that created unique client value. And the second is an example of how we're expanding the marketplace by attracting new business challenges on behalf of our clients.

The first example. I was recently with one of our enterprise client leaders, which is a team of business advisors that coordinates Aon's value proposition for a select group of significant clients and a large private equity client. And we were discussing the needs with their portfolio companies. And in doing so it became clearer that they want to put their balance sheet to work in new ways. And that they aspire to create value outside of traditional PE opportunities.

Our enterprise client leader connected that aspiration to our pinching USB capabilities and we began a conversation about the opportunity to apply their capital to de-risk the pension obligations with their portfolio companies and potentially beyond that in a broader marketplace. By doing so, we expanded a conversation from this mitigation to value creation.

This is likely to be a new source of value for the client over the coming years and was made possible by the connection our enterprise client leader made between our commercial resolutions capabilities and related offerings in retirement solutions. This example also demonstrates how the enterprise client group could help us create a template of approach to value creation and that we can replicate across sectors.

And more broadly how that team is helping us institutionalize our approach to Aon United growth opportunities and developing best practices designed to make it easier for all of our client-facing colleagues to bring the best of our firm to clients. The second example, it's all about marketplace expansion, as we continue our focus on expanding the marketplace by developing solutions to our clients most pressing business needs.

In Q3, we continued to invest behind Cyber with the launch of our Silent Cyber Solution driven by analytics and backed by an evolving reinsurance solution to help carriers respond to expanding cyber risk and regulations. Our actions are translating into accelerated revenue growth. Aon United equals growth which you can see from both the quarter and year-to-date in 2018 versus 2017.

More important it will be a driving factor toward delivering on our goal of mid single-digit organic revenue growth or greater over the long-term as we expand the market shift toward faster-growing areas of client demand and continue to increase market share.

With that I'll turn the call over to Christa for our thoughts and our progress year-to-date and long-term outlook for continued shareholder value creation. Christa?

Christa Davies -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thanks so much, Greg, and welcome, everyone. As Greg described, the steps we're taking to lead Aon United drove another strong performance for the third quarter. I would note that our progress year-to-date continues to reinforce both our short and long-term financial targets.

Our performance year-to-date through the third quarter reflects, organic revenue growth of 4%, an acceleration from 3% year-to-date in 2017. In addition to accelerating organic growth M&A is continuing to contribute both improving the mix and driving total revenue growth of 10% year-to-date.

Adjusted operating margins increased 210 basis points year-to-date and acceleration from our historic average of 70 to 80 basis points a year over the last decade. Accelerating revenues combined with significant margin expansion is delivering strong operating income growth of 19% year-to-date with core operating income growth reflecting 10% or more than half of the year-over-year performance.

Core margin expansion year-to-date is up 50 basis points and I would note this includes the absorption of near term investments in client-facing capabilities to support the Aon United growth initiatives that Greg highlighted. EPS growth of 29% year-to-date placing us firmly on track to exceed our short-term target of $7.97 in EPS in 2018.

And lastly reported free cash flow increased substantially reminding you that the prior year included cash tax payments related to the divestitures. Strong operational performance contributed to year-over-year growth partially offset by increased restructuring outflows reflecting this is expected to be our peak year of restructuring cash usage.

Adjusting for the impact of the divestiture underlying free cash flow grew 5% year-over-year including a discretionary strategic decision to pull forward 80 million of pension contributions into the third quarter. Our continued momentum and long-term outlook are amplified by the investments we're making across the portfolio to support Aon United growth objectives of mid single-digits organic revenue growth or greater over the long-term and in our Aon United operating model to drive ongoing productivity improvements.

As Greg discussed we're investing organically and inorganically in both talent and in capabilities across the portfolio in the highest return on investment capital opportunities, which are often driven by areas of client demand where we find new ways to add value or more effectively service clients unique business needs.

One example is the operating leverage we're creating in our affinity business by designing and building an application that will create a differentiated solution for small businesses who prefer digital channels to help navigate their buying process.

Through the creation of our next generation global business services model we're creating greater scalability, productivity, and operating leverage including the continued expansion of captive and outsourced service delivery centers, which will contribute substantial cost reduction. This is just one example of productivity improvements from our single operating model that will continue beyond the near-term restructuring program.

Ongoing productivity improvements combined with accelerating revenue growth and a portfolio mix shift of high-margin businesses are expected to drive continued long-term core margin expansion. More importantly an accelerating growth profile, increased operating leverage, and continued progress on working capital initiatives gives us confidence in our ability to deliver on our goal of double-digit annual growth in free cash flow over the long term.

As I mentioned before, 2018 is expected to be the peak year of cash usage related to the restructuring initiative. Defining uses of cash for restructuring, CapEx, and pension are expected to free up 650 million of free cash flow by the end of 2020 significantly increasing our capital flexibility to invest in value creation opportunities.

With an expectation of strong free cash flow growth combined with an opportunity to substantial additional leverage in 2019 and 2020, we're diligent about maximizing return on invested capital and make all capital allocation on this basis. This is highlighted by the 1.25 billion of share repurchase year-to-date, which remains the highest return in capital investment given our free cash flow valuation.

In summary, we continued to accelerate revenue growth through significant investments in client-facing colleagues and capabilities to deliver Aon United, and we're driving substantial free cash flow generation that's expected to unlock significant shareholder value creation over the long-term.

With that I'll turn the call back over to Greg.

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Christa. As mentioned earlier, we are glad to have Mike and Eric join us on the call to provide further insight and how Aon United creates value for our clients and drives growth for the firm. Now going back to questions from our Q2 call, several questions revolved around the very topic around creating value day-to-day.

And today we want to pick up on that line of questions from the last call and kick off today's discussion with a perspective from both Mike and Eric on this topic. However, before we turn to that question, I'm going to briefly talk about each of these leaders and their importance to our firm.

Eric has spent over 20 years at Aon, and in that time he's led and contributed to virtually every part of our business. His regional leadership roles in our commercial risk and health businesses. He's taken on the global leadership role in reinsurance solution. He's most recently added retirement solutions, working with our colleagues to create connections between our insurance clients and our investment solutions.

And, of course, all of those solutions are incubators for some of the most innovative uses of data and analytics. So, he's had the opportunity to support this portfolio and understand the power of insights we deliver to client through data and analytics. Eric is also very well-known and trusted by our market partners. And perhaps most important Eric's been in the ring as Aon has evolved over the years and has a unique appreciation for the importance and potential of our Aon United growth strategy.

Mike has been with Aon for over a decade. His background in client service coupled with excellent operational leadership provides unique perspective on how we develop and commercialize insight and most effectively connect it to client needs. Like Eric, Mike has held a broad range of leadership roles at Aon. Most recently a COO of our commercial risk solutions, health solutions and affinity businesses.

In that role Mike championed an M&A agenda that has seen us build new capabilities related to emerging risks like cyber intellectual property both of which are consistent with our commitment to create new sources of value for clients. It's also worth noting that Mike spent a great deal of time in London working out of our global headquarters which provided a more global perspective on the firm and a more nuance for understanding of a Lloyd's marketplace and it's important to our clients.

Now back to the question on Aon United and its impact at the front line of our firm. Eric, can I ask you to take the first cut and addressing that and Mike you can follow on.

Eric Anderson -- Chief Executive Officer, Aon Benfield

Thanks, Greg. It's a purpose to be here with you and Christa, and thank you for the great question. Before I begin I just want to echo Greg's comments on Mike and tell you how excited we are to be working together. A great reference we've known each other and worked together closely for over a decade and that collaboration has been a great foundation and is really the spirit of Aon United.

So, on the Aon United question, where to begin? This is just something that has become so fundamental to the success of our firm. When I talk about the unique benefits of Aon United with our clients, I always talk with our colleagues because that's really where the value originates.

Our colleagues are incredibly engaged by the potential of Aon United. They have seen a systematically bring down the structural barriers over the last few years, and they have left out the opportunity to work closely together for clients. They were always inclined to work together, but sometimes we made it more difficult than it needed to be.

By making it easier for them to bring the best of the firm to our clients, we have helped them create deeper more meaningful relationships. And that's a good thing because ultimately we're getting paid for value. And Aon United makes it easier to deliver more value for clients.

In return that strengthens our financial performance with greater retention in our core business increase relevance with clients through advice and solutions. Let me give you an example. If you look at our reinsurance solutions business you'll find that we serve many of the largest insurers in the world. Historically, that was more for of a transactional relationship. We were there to support their book of business.

But over the last decade you have seen us become more advice-driven using data and analytics to better understand our underwriting appetites, and more efficiently transfer the risk they were assuming to the secondary markets. That success builds loyalty and intimacy. Those CEOs know that we understand their business better than any other type of partner that they have.

So, as we built our investment consulting business, we've earned the right to introduce that new capability to an installed base of clients that already trust us and are conditioned to accept new insights. With one client in particular, we had a great relationship in the traditional reinsurance area supporting their book of business.

With our investment consulting capability, we were able to help them on the asset side of their balance sheet. Being able to partner with this client across their business, we're able to take our relationship to an entirely new level of interaction where we improved operating performance and strengthened their balance sheet.

That's just one example of the depth of our expertise and one solution line and our colleagues understanding and belief in Aon United that translated into an opportunity to introduce a new capability to our clients in a manner that created unique value for them and drove growth for our firm. Mike I know you see Aon United in action everyday and I hope you give additional examples.

Michael O'Connor -- Chief Executive Officer, Aon Risk Solutions

Thanks, Eric. Listening your description, well, I complete -- I agree completely that Aon United excites our colleagues and we see that ultimately leading to greater client loyalty and growth.

Let me take a moment and describe another example connected to the transportation sector that really reinforces this benefit. Across many geographies today, there's an enormous growth around small trucks and fleets being put to work to complete the last mile of delivery. We see demand both from large clients and middle-market clients.

However, the growth of these transportation businesses are challenged, as there is need for more efficient and effective insurance solution both vehicle insurance and health and benefits solutions for their workforce. This client need is spur within our team a truly Aon United response.

Our team stepped back and brought together an array of capabilities. Industry expertise from our transportation logistics practice, operational and platform capabilities from our affinity business that serves small businesses and consumers, reinsurance expertise to access and support capital providers.

Our captive team can assist clients desire self-insured solution. We brought data and analytics expertise from our global risk consulting team for the vehicle solutions and our talent a practice that can help assist drive our performance. And lastly, health and voluntary benefit solutions for this gig economy workforce from our health practice.

The integration of talent and capabilities from across the firm which does not come together without Aon United approach allows us to deliver customized solution to clients that enables them to operate and grow their business. This delivers an obvious benefit to the client that these types of opportunities also is what excites our colleagues. There are incredibly engaged and motivated when working across solution lines and geographies to join forces to deliver unique value of clients.

And that's been a big part of our journey toward becoming a professional services firm. Eric and I are seeing more and more Aon United efforts across the firm, similar to the transportation example I just shared, where colleagues are working together to create custom solutions underpinned by insights from data and analytics that increase our relevance with clients and earn the right to provide advice and solution to our clients that help them grow, improve profitability, and reduce risk.

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Mike and Eric. I appreciate those examples of how Aon United has generated impact with both clients and colleagues. Really helpful insight as we work to make -- making it easier really for our colleagues to bring the best of Aon to clients and make us deliver on the growth potential of our firm. And obviously we can go on for a lot of more examples, but let's see what's on the minds of everyone else.

And operator please open up the lines for our next question.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session (Operator Instructions) Our first question is coming from Dave Styblo.

Dave Styblo -- Jefferies -- Analyst

I wanted to maybe continue the conversation with Mike and Eric. And Aon is in, obviously, a very good position financially, the cash flow is strong and they get better. You've laid out the 650 million of incremental savings that you'll get over the next couple of years. You've got more restructuring savings that will be coming through. I guess as business leaders how do you Mike and Eric see that flexibility being able to benefit the business in terms of investments that you've made? What are the things that you'd like to do that would either enable you to improve retention, improve organic growth, improve margins through your lenses?

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

So, Dave, it's Greg. I'll start and then, sort of, we'll flip back and forth here so that we interact. First, I really appreciate the question. You really are underpinning one of the strengths of the firm, so not only with the financial flexibility and capability, but really have an opportunity to look at client need and the evolution of client need, and how it's changing, and then react to that. So, you've seen us make investments sort of on the acquisition side with straws in the cyber across the board with talents and sort of on the delegated side and exceptional ways.

You've seen us make acquisitions with Admix and health and data analytics and ACT and in mortgage and the exchanges et cetera. So, we got a whole pallet of things we can look out across the firm to improve performance both from an acquisition standpoint and organic standpoint.

And I think Eric and Mike have really been at the helm of sort of how we've directed that and how we've driven that. And you have seen that start to really provide yield in the overall business. Maybe Eric start with you just in terms of just place you have seen, it show up everyday, and I think the point Mike made around how our colleagues are reacting to that -- not just clients is important too.

Eric Anderson -- Chief Executive Officer, Aon Benfield

No. Thanks, Greg. And I think it really comes down to a couple of big areas. Certainly, we're continuing to invest in our teams. The capability and the development that they have to be able to provide the right insight, I think it's critical. Certainly, data and analytics is something that we've talked about consistently trying to drive content driven insight and creating new areas of demand and essentially growing the pie in the business is also a major focus. And then obviously having the right tools to be able to execute for clients. We see investment opportunities and growth areas across all five solution lines.

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

Perfect. Mike?

Michael O'Connor -- Chief Executive Officer, Aon Risk Solutions

Yeah, I mean, I think, as Eric said we see opportunities with new clients and existing and maybe I have a lot of couple of things that come to mind. First, we're using data and analytics to draw inside to be able to serve clients more effectively, and a great example of that is Aon Client Treaty.

We talked about that before. That is data-driven insight for us to be able to provide better solutions for clients all over the world. It's driven by client demand and the ability for us to unite capabilities within our insurance and reinsurance businesses to provide a distinctive solution and we see continued growth and continued benefit for clients. And then there are many parts of the business we are very excited about.

Transaction liability, we highlighted continues to be a real area of client need, and we continue to invest behind that. We continue to deepen our team and grow our geographic coverage both to serve corporates and private equity and investors. So, very excited about that space and see continued investment opportunity there.

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

Perfect.

Dave Styblo -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Thanks. And just a follow-up on the numbers a little bit may be just for Christa. The restructuring savings, if we keep that flat again in the fourth quarter from the third quarter, you guys going to be at nearly 360 million of restructuring savings for this year versus your $300 million goal. I guess where is the upside coming from? And is that more something that we should think about as a pull forward realizing the savings earlier or are we at a point where you start to have some visibility where you think you'd have a upside as a 450 million target for next year?

Christa Davies -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. So, Dave thank you so much for the question. We're extremely excited about the restructuring program and it's ability to invest in building the Aon United operating model that's going to deliver the 300 million of savings in 2018, the 450 million of savings in 2019, but much more importantly than that productivity gains and operating leverage in each year after that. And I would say in terms of where we're up to we're very excited about the progress year-to-date.

And the program it's really a lot of investments in real estate in IT and in people around our operating model. We're not in the business of updating guidance as we think about this restructuring program, it's a three-year program, which will continue until the end of 2019. What I can say is that we are very excited and confident about delivering the 300 million in savings this year and 450 million in savings next year.

Dave Styblo -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Okay. And then just lastly on organic growth that was really strong across especially the commercial book and reinsurance and in someway surprising strong against the comp -- tough comp. Are you guys seeing more so in uptick in end market demand or some of this do you think the market share gains that you guys are enjoying?

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

It's really, it's a combination Dave across the board. Again as Eric and Mike both highlighted we're looking, in essence, looking at client need, client demand and we're actually driving ways actually improving bring new solutions to the -- on behalf of clients.

So, some of the things that Eric and Mike talked about in cyber and transaction liability et cetera for our new opportunities we are bringing to the market. We've been very fortunate from a market share standpoint that continues to improve. That's improving because again candidly we're bringing better solutions to clients. So, that's -- we think that will improve over time. And net-net you're really seeing strength across -- really across the solution lines.

And again look forward not in any one quarter, in particular, but over the course of the year, you're going to see us continue to progress. And as we talked about the mid single-digit or greater goal over the coming years is really our focus from a growth standpoint, and you're going to see us do that. Obviously, as you think about the quarters, Q4 is a particular unique quarter last year. So, we're going to be pushing against that as we end the year, but look for continued progress and that's what our teams most excited about.

Dave Styblo -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Thanks for the question.

Operator

Our next question is coming from Sarah DeWitt. Your lines open, Sarah.

Sarah DeWitt -- JPMorgan -- Analyst

Hi, good morning, and congrats on a good quarter.

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Sarah.

Sarah DeWitt -- JPMorgan -- Analyst

First, one of your competitors has recently announced a large acquisition. Could you just talk about how your thoughts on how this could impact the competitive dynamics and how important is scale?

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

So, from my standpoint, look, success in our world is fundamentally starts with understanding client need and really understanding client need, and how it evolves. And we will come back to this, there's always lots of written about sort of the market view or the intermediary view or what have you, but frankly it's all irrelevant when you compared against sort of how client need is evolving over time.

And our perspective is, if you get a very clear view on that, and for us it's all things risk, all things retirement, all things health. How is that evolving over time? And then very specifically how are we building a new capability to address that need, both in a traditional way and the -- emerging risk way. So, I'd come back to, if you think about sort of the investments we've made in straws that was directly against the cyber opportunity, in talents and against delegated, in admix against health, in cut-e and talent.

And then organically, the investments we've made in data analytics and ACT and in mortgage and et cetera and the exchanges. So, from our standpoint, this has to be absolutely maniacally focused on sort of delivering more effectively for client need.

And in doing so, we're creating that new demand and competing in the traditional market, we think very effectively. Our view is that approach to the world combined with what is unique financial flexibility, and a focus on translating revenue into free cash flow, we're not only kind of serve clients effectively, but also create a set of economic results that we think will be very, very positive for our partner shareholders.

So , from our standpoint, obviously, elements of scale and size matter. You'll continue to see movements in the marketplace, but it's really that focus we think is going to determine victory.

Sarah DeWitt -- JPMorgan -- Analyst

Okay, great. And then on the restructuring initiative. Can you talk about how this shouldn't drive improve productivity over the long-term. Could you just elaborate on that or are you saying that there is potential for expense savings opportunities above and beyond the 450 million that you've identified? And could you just explain that a bit more?

Christa Davies -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Absolutely, Sarah. So, yes, is the answer to your question. We think that if you think about delivering 450 million of savings in 2019 then your run rate exiting 2019 is higher than 450, so we'll continue to deliver more savings in 2020.

But much more importantly than that is productivity and operating leverage built into the platform because when you aggregate your operations under one operating model, Aon United, then we are able to apply automation, AI, machine learning, and really continue to drive productivity savings in future years in 2020 and '21.

And so we're very excited about that future productivity benefits. And that really gives us confidence in the long-term margin expansion driven by top line revenue growth acceleration, improvements in the business mix and productivity.

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

I mean, one of the piece I just told Sarah is, Christa and the team have orchestrated this effort. What's also unique about it is, not just the cost saves, now as you know and the productivity improvement over time and this is really sort of an offshoot of Aon United and the leadership approach we've taken as we continue to connect the firm and see opportunities this isn't just about cost.

This isn't not about efficiency, it's about effectiveness. We believe we're going to be delivering in service and approach on behalf of client is going to improve as we get more efficient in the process. So, that really is how this is very different than anything we've seen undertaken in our industry and certainly anything we've undertaken before.

Sarah DeWitt -- JPMorgan -- Analyst

Right. Okay. It makes sense. Thanks for the answer.

Operator

Our next question is coming from Yaron Kinar of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Yaron Kinar -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Thank you. Good morning. My first question is around organic growth of long-term and maybe some thoughts from your perspective in terms of your positioning in the market especially given some consolidation initiatives we've seen among some of your peers as of late. It seems like your -- with your guidance of mid single-digit organic growth or better over the long-term you're pretty confident in your positioning, but would like to hear more about that if we could. And also maybe a little bit of clarity on the -- what gives you the confidence that over a long period of time you can achieve organic growth that seems just above and beyond what we've seen others guide to over several years across different companies?

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

Yaron, I'll start with that and then Mike and Eric can comment as well. Listen, as we think about this, again we've started with the formulation focus on clients, client need and client evolution in terms of how it's playing out over time. And you see us addressing that need, and what we would remind you off in the categories we play in risk retirement and health, these are highly fragmented in terms of sort of who serves those markets and underpenetrated.

So, you think about the risk market overall, and what's happening to the global economy, the top 10 risks in the world only three really have this is, by the way, top 10 risk based on our client input, only three really have great insurance solutions against them. So, in essence, the world is becoming more risky, and we have an opportunity to actually keep up. And if we just keep up we're going to grow. Now, what if we did better than that?

What if we actually provided a cyber solution that really provided more insight and help clients reduce volatility more effectively or opportunities that actually protect our balance sheet more effectively. So, from our standpoint we see an underpenetrated risk market in which we can create net new demand and serve clients more effectively over time.

And in doing so ironically what happens is, we do better in our traditional business. So, the example Eric described was a great one because not only do we take a great reinsurance client and offer some things from our retirement solutions area. Eric can just talk about this, our reinsurance relationship strengthened as a result of that combination.

So, that's really the whole piece. If you think about some of the things we've done in government de-risking. The world bank cap ons and, I know, I talked about it last time. I love this example because literally we took four countries Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru. We addressed their quake risk, in a way, that's never been done before.

It was an actual investment purchased by pension money orchestrating back by the world bank. And it given back that money was actually given back to the economies. That is a net new demand. Now I would ask you, how many economies around the world that are underdeveloped or developing would actually benefit from a cover like that.

And then you off for the races on a brand new category. So, for us this is about addressing current client need and addressing that new and doing it, in a way, in which we can both go after both do this to organic and M&A and that's all going to play back to organic growth. So, just a thought Eric or Mike in terms of, sort of, pieces Eric or Mike.

Eric Anderson -- Chief Executive Officer, Aon Benfield

You know, I would just say Greg because that the way you described it, it was perfect, but also just to underscore the Aon United strategy within the firm, I think, it's really compelling.

Mike and I both shared examples, but there are dozens of those examples that exist in the firm where for example one of our client leaders working with the firms out west to deal with wildfires or bringing insurance link securities capability to look at that risk in a new way or where there's a commercial risk leader that is handling the traditional insurance business for an insurer was able to underscore or uncover during the Client Promise discovery period, a need for additional reinsurance capital and part of their business and made those connections.

So, the ability to bring all the different solution lines to any given firm should be able to drive us that growth that we're talking about.

Yaron Kinar -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

So, is it that the degree of underpenetration of insurance in the market has been increasing over time or is it your capability of addressing that underpenetration that's been improving over time?

Michael O'Connor -- Chief Executive Officer, Aon Risk Solutions

Well, I think, it's both. I mean the reality is, we see opportunities that continue to build capabilities within our solution lines to serve clients more deeply and bring new clients into the firm and that's underpinned by our investments in data and analytics.

And it's also crossing capabilities across solution lines. And, I think, we highlighted Aon Client Treaty where that does not happen without insurance and reinsurance capabilities. And you could think about some of the things we're doing with our retail clients bringing reinsurance tools to bear like impact forecasting where we're bringing real insight through data and analytics to our retail clients. So, I think, it's both.

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, the other piece, Yaron, just and we talked about this on previous calls. This for us is, it's not just conceptual. This is our life everyday around the battle for relevance, and it really is a battle for relevance in the entire industry. In essence, are we helping companies address volatility in a more effective way?

And, I think, you can make an argument, the answer is, the industry as a whole, in the middle of it has not. We've not kept up. You can look at kind of claims as a percentage of GDP back in the '60s and '70s it's kind of essentially 1%, 1.5% 2% give or take. It grows, by the way, virtually every year and to the late '80s, so about 3%, 3.5%, and then systematically has come down every year since.

So, it's back to where it was in the '60s. So, net-net, it's the global economy has grown. And I guess think about another fact 75% of the market cap, the S&P 500 is driven off of intangible assets. That's fundamentally changed from 1975 where it was about 25%. And so if that world has changed, we have not collectively kept up. We have not actually addressed volatility.

We see that as a huge opportunity to actually help clients grow and drive opportunity for them and reduce risk. You've also seen us, by the way, we've done some announcements with some very large tech companies. And, by the way, somebody's largest tech companies are bigger than our insurers. They don't need the capital to protect their balance sheet, but we view the insurance solutions as a way to actually create demand for them. In fact they put a demand in the marketplace so this is way beyond insurance.

They're putting the product in the marketplace and consumers are buying it because we've actually provided cover to protect them from cyber risk on their product. And so these are kinds of things we're doing to create net new demand that we think a real opportunity and frankly drive relevance not just for us, but for the global economy -- insurers in the global economy.

Yaron Kinar -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Got it. And my second question was just around the effective tax rate. So, you're guiding that down for the year to below 18%. With some guidance expected on the beat later this year. Any thoughts as to how the effective tax rate plays out in 2019 and beyond?

Christa Davies -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes. Thanks for the question. We did previously gave guidance of 18% for this year and given the impacts of discrete we saw in Q3, the 2018 full-year tax rate will be below 18%. As I look back historically, Yaron, what I would say is, exclusive of the impacts of discrete, which can be positive or negative and unpredictable in any year, our historical underlying tax rate for the last three years is approximately 18%. And so we're not giving guidance going forward, but I think that gives you some sense.

Yaron Kinar -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

I was just asking about the beat tax itself. Any clarification there or expected this year?

Christa Davies -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes. So, I guess, you're on the way we think about it is an all-in underlying rate, and what we would say is, if you look at the last three years it's been about 18%. And for 2018, in particular, it will be slightly below 18% really just driven by the discrete you saw in Q3.

Yaron Kinar -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Kai Pan. Your lines open, Kai Pan.

Kai Pan -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Thank you, and good morning. Thank you very much for making Eric and Mike available for this discussion. I just want to follow-up within the conversation to ask Eric and Mike. What has changed in terms of your day-to-day operation and the response made under Aon United. And you gave a lot of good example as a work to drive collaboration and drive growth. But are there any execution risks or potential pay for us you worry about in terms of speed of execution as well as accountability?

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

We think what has changed is, respond to their day-to-day piece. Let's start with what are the changes beyond just the Co-President. Remember, we talked about a single P&L. We talked about a single OpCo and a single brand. All steps that frankly driven by Eric and Mike and our broader team sort of really were a catalyst sort of accelerate Aon United. And has implications, of course, for their day-to-day we still talk about, but it really was built on that foundation. So, thoughts, gentlemen?

Michael O'Connor -- Chief Executive Officer, Aon Risk Solutions

Yeah, I can jump in Greg. I think as Eric highlighted, Eric and I have a long history of working together. And I think it's been a -- this is a combination of that to actually bring the life in Aon United. And I think our leadership team has stepped up over the number of years.

We have intimacy in that group. We have great connectivity. So, I think, as we come together and unite the firm run through one global operating committee. We have great confidence that not only what we not miss, but I think we have expectations we can accelerate our execution capabilities. Eric?

Eric Anderson -- Chief Executive Officer, Aon Benfield

And I would just say the connectivity that we're trying to bring to the firm as a partnership, I think, is really beginning to get momentum. And Mike and I have been spending a fair amount of time around the world with our colleagues and our clients just reinforcing the fact that we have to work closer together and the reality is that clients are pushing us to do it.

They're looking at the degree of risk that they are facing and they're looking at the solutions that we have across the firm. And we said earlier about bringing down structural barriers, the ability for us to bring the entire company to help solve the client's problem builds great momentum inside the firm.

You asked about risks as well, and I would just say the execution risk for us is, speed. The client's problems are here and there now, and if we don't find a way to solve them and be able to bring the firm together as quickly as we need to then nobody is solved by someone else in some other way. So, I think, what drives us the most is the fact that we see the need. We know we have the tools. It's just how fast can we get it together to get it in front of the clients.

Kai Pan -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

That's great. My second question on margin front. If you're looking into 2019, your cost saving $450 million versus $300 million this year will be $150 million. That equates to about 130 basis points of margin expansion, if assuming half of them flow through bottom line, will be like 60 basis points. And your core margin expansion, your underlying core margin expansion you mentioned year-to-date about 50 basis points. If you can sustain that, you could add up to more like 100 basis points year-over-year margin expansion into 2019. Christa, I'm just wondering is that the right way to think about your margin potential going forward?

Christa Davies -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

But, Kai, we don't obviously give margin guidance going forward, but what we can say is, we're very excited about continuing to be able to expand margins through three key sources. One is accelerating revenue growth which you've seen in calendar year 2019. But you also saw for the last couple of years, we've been continuing to accelerate organic revenue growth and M&As contributing to total revenue growth of 10% year-to-date.

The second is mixed shift. We continue to invest in higher revenue growth, higher margin businesses both organically and in organically. And Greg gave some great descriptions of those businesses earlier. And the third is the restructuring savings and the ongoing productivity beyond 2019. And so we feel really good about the future margin expansion potential of the firm.

Kai Pan -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Okay. Last one, if I may, is on your cyber and also transaction liability business. You said you have been growing double-digits. I'm just wondering how big are this business relative to your overall portfolio and specific on the silent cyber initiative you're doing. You worry about it becoming competitor of your clients not the clients on the insurance side, but also you're using reinsurance. Is there any residual balance sheet risk to Aon?

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

Just to start with that one, there's no residual balance sheet risk. As you know, Kai, we are not in the business that sort of taking balance sheet risk. Ours is sort of connect capital with need and we do that around the world with our reinsurers and with alternative capital and all the different pieces around that.

We would say on the cyber side just generally, look, this is about net opportunity and it really starts again with our recurring theme around client need. Clients, if you think about it, we've talked about it before. And the numbers are sort of connected the cyber to trauma.

In California, 50 billion of pain of loss in 2017 and against that's against $3 billion to $4 billion in premium that was written. So, we might be the largest, and it might be growing double-digit and we're very excited about it, by the way, our team's done an exceptional job. When you think about $3 billion to $4 billion in the context of 450 million, Kai, that's a massive opportunity to help client succeed. And then remember that 450 million, as I described on previous calls is really a North American figure. The European figure is close to zero because they didn't actually need to report cyber.

It wasn't required. Until May of 2018, so just a few months ago, the European data loss sort of kicked in and those are incredibly onerous. So, the cyber connected loss, not to a connected loss, it's going to go to $1 trillion on the dial and the industry has responded to $3 billion to $4 billion. So, for us, we see massive opportunity for our clients, if we can get this right, when we get this right, frankly for the industry as well and real opportunity.

And so this is back to the idea that Mike and Eric were talking about in terms of the emerging new risks that we can help clients succeed. And again as Eric described if we don't sought it for them and solve it, they're going to find other ways to do it and we see this as a substantial opportunity.

Kai Pan -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Okay. How big are they now relative to your portfolio?

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

Very small, very, very small. These are kind of new initiatives we've put in place. I think good representative examples are sort of steps we've taken, but they're very, very small tiny in terms of the broader overall Aon, but we think they have tremendous potential.

Kai Pan -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Great, great. Thank you so much.

Operator

Our next question is coming from Elyse Greenspan of Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Elyse Greenspan -- Wells Fargo -- Analyst

Hi, good morning. My first question. Pretty strong reinsurance growth this quarter. You guys had a pretty tougher comp last Q3 about 10% organic and you adjust for RevRec and you have a 20% comp in the fourth quarter obviously a lot of reinstatements and cap-ons after the hurricanes last year. How do you see that? Is that a headwind or is it something that you can kind of offset to a certain degree like you did this quarter?

And should we think about that being I know you highlighted the 50 basis points of kind of core underlying margin expansion year-to-date. Is that going to be a headwind in the fourth quarter just because reinsurance is such high margin business or does it help that I guess you have less revenue coming through into fourth quarter?

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

Well, listen, overall again you just have to step back and sort of look at the trend line sort of what our colleagues been able to do in reinsurance solutions, and we just highlighted it's been exceptional. If you look at the last few years and our ability to actually win new clients and do more with clients is actually continuing to progress and you're seeing that at least and that's played out sort of in the first nine months of the year.

Look, Q4 , I just want to emphasize that trend line that overall progress, it's exceptional and the team's been great on the treaty side, on the fact side, alternative side just absolutely exceptional, and I think we see that trend line. Again, we always come back to sort of those trend line, it's not a particular quarter.

As you highlight Q4 is unique. It's unique sort of in history it's, by the way, our smallest quarter as you've described. The comp is very unique. We know what was going on in the last year is going to create us sort of headwinds in the fourth quarter, no doubt, in terms of, sort of, where we are.

But the overall -- the overall time line and the overall trend has been exceptionally positive. But Q4 the comp is no doubt very, very difficult from that standpoint. Eric, anything you want to add to that?

Eric Anderson -- Chief Executive Officer, Aon Benfield

Yeah, I would just add Greg a couple of things. One, we continue to see good success in the build out of the core treaty business in terms of new clients and expanded business with existing clients. Our facultative business in the third quarter was exceptionally strong, and we were able also to do new things with some new client groups whether it's government entities or firms like that, that are little broader than a normal remit and people think of reinsurance for insurance companies. I think the combination of the three has been positive for us all year and so it has led to a good nine months.

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

That's again this is back to at least very specifically trend exceptionally positive. Q4 definitely a major hurdle as we think about sort of the comparison.

Elyse Greenspan -- Wells Fargo -- Analyst

And as we think about few months forward and as you start kind of having conversation with clients, do you guys of kind of a high level mix you're on, what kind of prices we could expect in the reinsurance market at the January 1 renewals?

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

As we talked over time we really don't spend a lot of time on -- talking about sort of predictions on the pricing front in particular just given sort of our analytics what we do day-to-day with our clients. Overall, we'd say at least when you look at pricing again sort of the progress for the first nine months of the year, it's really sort of continue to sort of being at par, if you will. There's pluses and minuses depending on sort of what you've encountered as a client and what kind of trauma you've encountered. But overall, the overall marketplace for us continues to be relatively stable.

Elyse Greenspan -- Wells Fargo -- Analyst

Okay. And then one on the expenses. I know we had a few earlier questions. So, you guys are at 308 million at the end of your target for this year was 00 million. And Christa are you implying that you guys aren't even if you kind of get well ahead of that by the end of this year? That you guys won't potentially waste the program again or is it just that that's not something that you kind of looked into date? I just kind of want to understand how we can tie that altogether and our thoughts around that?

Christa Davies -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Sure, Elyse. I mean, I guess, the simple thing I would say is, we're not in the business of updating guidance. It's a three-year program. We've got until the end of 2019 and we're very excited about the progress we've made today. And we're on track to deliver 300 million of savings this year and a 450 million of savings next year.

Elyse Greenspan -- Wells Fargo -- Analyst

Okay, great. And then one last question. Repurchase was a little bit lighter than what we had modeled. Is there anything in the quarter that caused that to slow down a little bit or it's just kind of timing when buyback kind of comes during the year maybe your stock actually did better this quarter. Did that plan you kind of thoughts around repurchasing the shares?

Christa Davies -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. So, Elyse, as you know we allocate capital, return on capital, cash and cash returns, share repurchase remains the highest return on capital opportunity across Aon. What did happen in the quarter is, we did accelerate 80 million of pension contribution from future years into Q3. And that was one factor that impacted us. But long-term we see a very highly valued internal valuation of Aon, which is why the return on capital opportunity is so substantial for us.

Elyse Greenspan -- Wells Fargo -- Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Our next question is coming from Meyer Shields of KBW. Your lines open.

Meyer Shields -- KBW -- Analyst

Great. Thanks. I have two, I think, somewhat related questions. The first is based on really everything that you talked about in this in previous calls. Should we expect what you turn the market impact to be less of a factor in either direction going forward?

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

Well, again, as we come back, when you talk about market, in fact, it really is the insured value part of the world and the pricing part of the world, and as we described before insured value is, sort of, if you think about those actually as a more material impact over time than the pricing piece.

And all I've try to highlight is, if you think about sort of what we said on previous calls around the influence of pricing that hasn't changed that dramatically. But if you think about the long-term view, Eric, you want to start. Mike, you want to chime in?

Eric Anderson -- Chief Executive Officer, Aon Benfield

Yeah, I would just say Greg that the overall capital structure of the business remains largely unchanged from the beginning of the year. Even with the natural catastrophes in Japan, the Florida Panhandle some of the man-made losses like the Genoa bridge disaster.

The total cap budgets are largely in line with what the reinsurers and the insurers expected. So, our sense is that with the supply and demand that was there at the beginning of the year that's relatively unchanged. I would say the interesting part though is, as we try and bring that capital to provide cover for new risk, I think, that's where there's growth in the business.

Michael O'Connor -- Chief Executive Officer, Aon Risk Solutions

Yeah, and the only thing I would add is with our investments in the reinsurance business and insurance business and data and analytics. We think about this risk by risk. We are spending our time making sure we understand our clients intimately well and can think about the right answer for them, and we will source solutions for them anywhere in the world that can makes sense.

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

And then the final piece, I think, you've thrown Meyer is the following. Listen, these conversations around pricing in the insurance marketplace are obviously important and relevant et cetera. We try to put them in context and again ours is not about pricing, ours is about client value and how we deliver on that.

But what I really want to come back to is thinking about Aon right? This is about we put 6% up sort of in the quarter, it's about progress, and if you think about sort of the overall portfolio of Aon on the retirement side, the investment side, the health side.

What we do in data and analytics more broadly. Less and less of our business is even connected to this any way shape or form and even in the context of the risk business and less and less, obviously important but less and less relevant over time. So, I just want to put in the overall context in terms of sort of how this fits into the boarder Aon portfolio single OpCo, single operating model, single P&L.

Meyer Shields -- KBW -- Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. That's really what I was driving at. So, that really clarifies things. Second question and clearly I understand the bottom line impact of what you're talking about. But how do you think about areas of technology actually reducing risk. Can I guess autonomous cars, you know, you can put the switch and have them, well, it would be a good example of one major current risk significantly evaporating. How big of a factor is that?

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

Again this is back to, if you think about, sort of, I think I did understand your question. Will technology actually reduce volatility and risk in the world over time? And we would say listen we would love to find errors, well, that's true. More and more well our clients actually come to us with and this is a point Eric and Mike were making, they come to us with implications on how technology changes the business model, but also changes the risk profile and that respects increases the risk profile.

And at this point in time the technology change, even if they think they haven't figured it out, there's massive uncertainty. So, for us this is the perfect time to sort of be in a changing global economy, and there's so much change going on. And risk overall is going up, by the way, it's not just risk in the classic risk business. It's risk in the retirement world. It's risk in the health world.

So, really is volatility in the world today that we think is greater than ever before. I described intellectual property. All these things are sort of the areas that actually are changing over time and net-net you'd be very hard-pressed not to say that the basket of risk in the world today is not going up. And then to the point we've made on the call already, ours is the question of, can we maintain relevance? Can we keep up?

Can we bring solutions either capital or risk transfer solutions that matter, retirement solutions are solutions that matter that help our clients improve performance or reduce their volatility? So, that's why in the end, this is really about how we evolve and well that evolution can be the traditional evolution. It isn't just about getting better it's really got to be getting better and bringing higher quality to clients.

Meyer Shields -- KBW -- Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you. That's very helpful.

Operator

Last question is coming from Adam Klauber. Your lines open. The last caller.

Adam Klauber -- William Blair -- Analyst

Thanks. Good morning.

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

Hey, Adam.

Adam Klauber -- William Blair -- Analyst

Could you flesh out the new ventures group. It sounds very interesting. So a couple of follow-ups. One, I think, you relate that, it really has to do with increasing value for a client. You gave one. Could you give maybe another example or two of what those activities could be? Two, could that be an area where you direct more do some more acquisitions? And then three and I think you mentioned your first. Does this area involved more potential activity with private equity and venture capital?

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

Yes. So, Adam, just to step back in essence this is just another step in the journey. We think an important one, but another step in the journey. Mike and Eric both talked about innovation and what we're doing to bring new solutions to clients. New ventures is essentially saying, listen, we've got proven approachers. They worked exceptionally well. Can we be faster? This is to Eric's point on speed matters. Can we be faster identifying opportunities and then scaling them globally.

So, this is an internal offer, in which we've got a group of senior leaders. Again, one of the manifestations of having the single OpCo and single P&L and our Co-Presidents whom what they're doing it's allowed us to free up leadership time to focus really more strongly on this.

If you think about sort of what we're doing in data and analytics and all the pieces around that in John Bruno's area. Efforts around really across the firm. Ours is really about how we can accelerate those. So, that's fundamentally what really new ventures is about, and you'll see us pick two or three or four areas, and we'll have a portfolio in which we are really trying to identify where and how we can accelerate.

This is not about third-party investment, private equity investment fund, it's not about that at all. It's really about how we take ideas and scale them more globally, more effectively, and we've got I'm not going to go through the portfolio today.

We want you to see them evolve over time. We think they're going to be pretty interesting, but and reasonably significant, but we have to prove it out, and we have to drive it. But we know without this capability, it's very hard to actually get enough energy and effort to really scale something effectively. And that's really what the ventures is about, and I think under Tony Goland's leadership, I think, with our broader group across the room will be a very interesting set of steps that will strengthen the firm.

Adam Klauber -- William Blair -- Analyst

Great. And then on health solutions a very strong quarter. New business in EMEA region. Is that more multinational clients or is that more European or other EMEA-based clients. And then and I guess -- is that a growing pipeline in that -- that type of business?

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

Well, listen, first of all thanks for recognizing and drying out health. Again, as you know, we love this category. We think globally it represents a monumental opportunity to assist clients and what is a really frankly pressing and intensifying set of needs back to the question on, is demand going up or going down. We think it's going up. And what's going on in EMEA, by the way, you're seeing throughout the course of the year across the world. It's not only servicing local clients with what we think are better sets of solutions.

It's also serving global clients. One, more consistent healthy throughout the world very, very important. And in addition, augmenting what they have, voluntary benefits and things that actually make the value proposition stronger. So, you are seeing that. In EMEA, in this quarter, you've seen it across the world, and we think it's actually going to continue strongly. It's again one of the reasons we like this category so much.

Adam Klauber -- William Blair -- Analyst

Okay. And you touched on voluntary benefits in the U.S. Strong growth there. Is that you're increasing your products set, increasing your capabilities? I guess what's driving some expansion there?

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, again it's both. Again back to client demand. Clients really want to see new opportunities, they want to see solutions that actually improve, well, being and you go beyond a specific product area. And sort of you've seen us bring a number of new solutions to markets that have actually served again our clients well. And we think we have great trends ahead of them.

Adam Klauber -- William Blair -- Analyst

Great. And one final for Christa. Free cash, I think, you mentioned in the range of 600 million plus would be freed up in the next two years that had been used in restructuring, if I'm correct. Is that weighted more toward 2019 or 2020 to the extent you could say?

Christa Davies -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. So, Adam what we would say is, as you look at the slide deck, I'm just finding the slide. We've actually outlined this. So, 650 million of cash flow reduction. So, a reduction in use of cash on pension restructuring and CapEx. It's page 23 of the slide deck posted on our website. So, 650 million is not just from restructuring, it's a reduction in CapEx and it's a reduction in pension contributions as well.

Great. I'll take a look. Thanks a lot, guys.

Thank you.

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Greg Case for closing remarks.

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

I just want to say to everybody thank you very much for joining the call. I really appreciate it and look forward to our discussion next quarter. Thanks very much.

Operator

That concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect from the queue.

Duration: 60 minutes

Call participants:

Gregory Case -- Chief Executive Officer

Christa Davies -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Eric Anderson -- Chief Executive Officer, Aon Benfield

Michael O'Connor -- Chief Executive Officer, Aon Risk Solutions

Dave Styblo -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Sarah DeWitt -- JPMorgan -- Analyst

Yaron Kinar -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Kai Pan -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Elyse Greenspan -- Wells Fargo -- Analyst

Meyer Shields -- KBW -- Analyst

Adam Klauber -- William Blair -- Analyst

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