Logo of jester cap with thought bubble.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

UDR Inc  (NYSE:UDR)
Q3 2018 Earnings Conference Call
Oct. 30, 2018, 1:00 p.m. ET

Contents:

  • Prepared Remarks
  • Questions and Answers
  • Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Greetings and welcome to UDR Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Vice President, Chris Van Ens. Thank you, Mr. Van Ens, you may begin

Chris Van Ens -- Vice President

Welcome to UDR's quarterly financial results conference call. Our quarterly press release and supplemental disclosure package were distributed yesterday afternoon and posted to the Investor Relations section of our website, ir.udr.com. In the supplement we have reconciled all non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure in accordance with Reg G requirements. Statements made during this call, which are not historical may constitute forward-looking statements.

Although we believe the expectations reflected in any forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions we can give no assurance that our expectations will be met. A discussion of risks and risk factors are detailed in our press release and included in our filings with the SEC. We do not undertake a duty to update any forward-looking statements. When we get to the question-and-answer portion we ask that you be respectful of every one's time and limit your questions and follow-ups. Management will be available after the call for your questions that did not get answered on the call.

I'll now turn the call over to UDR's Chairman, CEO and President, Tom Toomey.

Thomas W. Toomey -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President

Thank you, Chris and welcome to UDR's third quarter 2018 conference call. On the call with me today are Jerry Davis, Chief Operating Officer; and Joe Fisher, Chief Financial Officer who will discuss our results. As well as senior officers Warren Troupe, and Harry Alcock who will be available during the Q&A portion of the call. There are three key points I'd like to make about our business and the macroeconomic environment. First, we again produced very good results across all aspects of our business during the quarter. These results and a positive outlook drove our second guidance increase this year in earnings per share and same-store growth ranges. Jerry and Joe will discuss these in detail in their prepared remarks.

Second, the underlying macroeconomic backdrop for the apartment industry remains positive. This when combined with solid fundamentals will continue to support future NOI growth. As such we expect the apartments will remain a consistent short-term and long-term performer in a very volatile global economic landscape. Third, and turning to 2019, we are optimistic about our prospects. We remain confident in our innovative platform and the expected earn-in from it, and as well as the improved bottom line contribution from our lease-up communities for 2018.

From a capital allocation standpoint we remain flexible and we'll continue to invest in uses that provide the best risk-adjusted return. We'll provide details of 2019 guidance on our fourth quarter earnings call. Last, to all my fellow associates in the field and corporate offices we thank you for producing another quarter of strong results.

With that I'll turn it over to Jerry.

Jerry A. Davis -- Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

Thanks, Tom, and good afternoon everyone. We are pleased to announce another quarter of strong operating results. Third quarter year-over-year revenue and NOI growth for our same-store pool, which represents approximately 83% of total NOI were 3.8% and 3.9% respectively. Please note, that excluding the impending sale of our Circle Towers community located in Washington D.C. Market and its commensurate move to held-for-sale, quarterly same-store revenue growth would have been 3.7% in the quarter or at the top end of the range we provided in early September.

Moving on, as Tom indicated, business is strong. Seven points I would like to highlight from the quarter are as follows. First, year-over-year same-store revenue growth of 3.8% exhibited continued acceleration versus the 3% and 3.4% growth rates we produced in the first and second quarters. Secondly market rents accelerated through the end of August before retreating slightly in September. As such 2018 has exhibited more typical seasonality than any of the prior three years. While we had anticipated this coming into 2018 the durability of the market rent growth throughout the prime leasing season was welcome.

We are definitely benefiting from stronger job growth in our markets thus far in 2018 which has been 40 basis points better than initial estimates and followed the last 12 month wage growth that has averaged 3.2%. Combined, our markets have outpaced national total income growth by 90 basis points over the trailing 12 months. Third, year-over-year blended lease rate growth for the quarter was 60 basis points higher than during the same period last year. This was 40 basis points wider than what was realized during the first half of 2018. We expect this gap to continue to widen in the fourth quarter.

Fourth, other income grew by nearly 14% (ph) in the quarter well above expectations. Our operating initiatives continued to grow at rates many multiples of rent growth and remain a primary contributor to our sector leading 2018 same-store revenue guidance. Fifth, turnover continues to compare favorably versus 2017. Year-to-date annualized turnover was down 100 basis points through nine months. This is especially impressive given that our short-term leasing initiative should result in higher turnover.

Sixth, same-store expense growth came in at 3.5%. Real estate tax has remained under pressure increasing by 9% year-over-year. But our controllable expenses grew by only 0.2% as we continue to find efficiencies throughout our operating platform as evidenced by our year-to-date personnel expense growth of negative 2.8%. We see a long runway for constraining future expense growth via technological initiatives and process enhancements. And last, we saw minimal pressure from move outs, the home purchase or rent increase remained stable at 12% and 6% reasons (ph) for move out during the third quarter. Likewise bad debt remains unchecked. These encouraging prospects, when combined with our near 97% occupancy set us up well entering 2019.

Next a quick overview of our markets. The majority of our markets are performing in line with expectations with a few exceptions. The Florida market, San Francisco and Boston have outperformed versus original forecast, while Austin and New York continue to struggle in the face of new supply pressures. Regarding New York we continue to forecast positive top line growth for the market in 2018 despite a slightly negative year-to-date result.

Last, our development pipeline in aggregate continues to generate lease rates and leasing velocities, in line with to slightly ahead of original expectations. At 345 Harrison, our 585 home $363 million project in Boston, which opened in late May we ended the quarter at 74% leased, well ahead of initial forecast. This, when combined with rental rates that are in line with original underwriting expectations keeps us enthused by 345's anticipated contribution to 2019.

At our $353 million 516 home Pacific City development in Huntington Beach, we ended the quarter at 81% leased. We continue to see this property gaining traction. Our two JV developments totaling $93 million and pro rata spend remain on budget and on schedule. Our suburban mid-rise 383-home community located in Addison Texas, Vitruvian West ended the quarter at 96% leased, with rents well in excess of underwriting expectations after opening the doors just back in February.

Our 150-home Vision on Wilshire community, located in Los Angeles is a very high priced point community and is performing well, ending the quarter at 75% leased, after having first move-ins just five months earlier in April. Quarter-end lease-up statistics are available on attachment nine of our supplement. I would like to again thank all of our associates in the field and at corporate for another strong quarter.

With that I'll turn it over to Joe.

Joseph D. Fisher -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Jerry. The topics I'll cover today include our third quarter results and forward guidance, a transactions update and a balance sheet update. Our third quarter earnings results came in at the midpoints of our previously provided guidance ranges. FFO as adjusted and AFFO per share were $0.49 and $0. 44. Third quarter FFOA was up $0.02 or 4.3% year-over-year driven by strong same-store performance, lease-up performance and accretive capital deployment.

I would now like to direct you to Attachment 15 of our supplement, which details our second guidance raise of 2018 and our latest expectations. In summary we increased full year 2018 FFOA per share to $1.95 to $1.96, and AFFO per share to $1.79 to $1.80. Primary drivers of the increases include upside from our same-store portfolio, an improved contribution from our lease-up properties and accretion from additional DCP deployment.

Full year 2018 same-store revenue, expense and NOI growth guidance ranges were each increased by 25 basis points at the low end to 3.25% to 3.5% driven by strong blended lease rates and other income growth, offset somewhat by higher real estate taxes. For the fourth quarter our guidance ranges are $0.49 to $0.50 per FFOA and $0.45 to $0.46 per AFFO.

Next transactions, during the quarter we entered into a contract to sell Circle Towers, a 46-year 604-home community located in the Fairfax County sub-market of Washington D.C., for $160 million. The sale temporarily decreases our D.C. exposure ahead of potential new development and densification opportunities in the market over the coming years. The transaction is expected to close during the fourth quarter subject to customary closing conditions.

Regarding development we continue to work toward stabilizing our development pipeline in the $400 million to $600 million range and have a path forward to do so over the next several years depending on our opportunity set. Most of these starts are expected to come from legacy land and densification opportunities as we remain disciplined in our underwriting and sourcing economical land remains challenging given the disparity between construction cost increases and rent growth in most markets. Similar to last quarter we remain constructive on our forecasted 2019 earn-in from our $809 million of completed on-balance sheet and JV development.

On the Developer Capital Program front we are seeing more opportunities and closed on new three new deals totaling $73 million and commitments during the third quarter bringing our total commitments to $270 million, 74% of which has been funded. The investments are located in Santa Monica, Philadelphia and Orlando, represent 867 apartment homes in aggregate and have a weighted average yield of 10%. Within the program we currently have incremental capacity of $50 to $100 million. Please see Attachment 12b for further details.

Big picture, we remain flexible with our capital deployment and will continue to pivot to take advantage of the best available risk-adjusted return as long as the opportunities meet our hurdles and fall within our forward sources and uses plan. Next capital markets and balance sheet, during the quarter we amended our $1.1 billion revolving credit facility and $350 million term loan to extend both maturities out to 2023 and reduce our spreads over LIBOR by 7.5 basis points and five basis points respectively. Subsequent to quarter end we issued $300 million of 10-year unsecured debt at a coupon of 4.4% and effective coupon of 4.27% after hedging.

Proceeds will be used to prepay $196 million of 5.28% secured debt originally scheduled to mature in October and December of 2019 and for general corporate purposes leaving minimal debt maturities in 2019. At quarter end our liquidity, as measured by cash and credit facility capacity net of the commercial paper balance was $710 million. Our financial leverage was 34% on an undepreciated book value, 24% on enterprise value and 29% inclusive of joint ventures.

Our consolidated net-debt-to-EBITDAre was 5.7 times and inclusive of joint ventures it was 6.3 times. We remain comfortable with our credit metrics and don't plan to actively lever up or down. With regard to the profile of our balance sheet we will continue to look for NPV positive opportunities to improve our 4.9 year duration and increase the size of our unencumbered NOI pool. Finally we declared a quarter common dividend of $0.3225 in the third quarter or a $1.29 per share when annualized, representing a yield of approximately 3.2% as of quarter end. With that I'll open it up for Q&A. Operator?

Questions and Answers:

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Nick Joseph with Citigroup.

Nick Joseph -- Citi -- Analyst

Thanks. For the development lease ups, given the progress you continue to make, what's the earning on development in 2019 versus the expected impact on 2018 results?

Joseph D. Fisher -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Hey, Nick, it's Joe. As we talked about previously, this year we're producing about a mid-twos FFO yield coming off of the $700 plus million of consolidated development. That equates to about a $0.01 of dilution this year relative to run rate. Next year we think that's probably about $0.02 contribution as those assets continue to move toward stabilization which will fully occur once we get out to 2020.

Nick Joseph -- Citi -- Analyst

Thanks and then you did the DCP deal, Philadelphia, is that a market you want to add exposure to?

Joseph D. Fisher -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes. So we already have one asset there within a existing joint venture. So it is a market we have operated on and tracked over time but as we talked about a little bit more and more we do have these predictive analytics models that show Philadelphia is screening relatively well over the next four to 10 years. The addition of medical jobs, technology jobs, educational jobs all continue to contribute to macro factors and specific demand factors that's screen pretty well to us. So this was a good way to enter the market through that $50-plus million DCP deal, obviously get upfront as well as back end participation. So it's something we continue look at but good way for us get hold of more exposure to a good market.

Nick Joseph -- Citi -- Analyst

Thanks. Are there any other markets you are underwriting deals in that you're currently don't own in (ph)?

Joseph D. Fisher -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

There is no other markets. And as I said we do own in that market already, but there is no other markets that we are considering. Just as a quick reminder to you, from a modeling standpoint, well we do have $73 million that we announced, that we committed to this quarter within DCP. Just want to remind everyone that those do fund overtime similar to a typical development. So you typically see about a four quarter funding profile with those, meaning equity going in first, followed by our commitment, followed by construction amount. So just from a modeling standpoint that's $73 million of commitment comes in overtime into earnings. So keep that in mind as you think out to 2019.

Nick Joseph -- Citi -- Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Juan Sanabria with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.

Juan Sanabria -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Hi, guys. Just hoping you can give your latest thoughts on supply and expectations for '19 deliveries versus '18, updates on slippage. And which market do you think you're going to see meaningful declines or pickup in deliveries year-over-year?

Joseph D. Fisher -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes, hey Juan, it's Joe. Good morning. So expectations for 2019 really haven't changed at this point. We've been talking about flat to down 10% in our markets overall. Just a reminder on that process that we go through, we utilize a combination of third-party data, our permit-based regression models (ph) and then intelligence from the field. So when you roll all those up, that flat to down 10% still feels appropriate at this point in time. I think that's further supported by looking at starts and permit activity start at typically around 10% to 15% down on a national basis, and that trend typically holds within our markets as well when we look across that.

When you drop down to the MSA level the markets we probably see the larger increases in would be up in the West Coast, Inland Empire, LA Seattle and then up in north Cal, away from (inaudible). And then on the East Coast you have DC that probably ticks up for us. And then in terms of markets that come down, the major bi-coastal markets, New York City, Boston and Orange County all look to be coming down as well as a number of the sun belt markets with Denver and Nashville and Tampa coming down as well.

Juan Sanabria -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Great, thank you. And then in the other income line item, is that contributing to certain markets more than others? I know you guys are being more problematic about the parking, and just thoughts on '19 and ability to sustain that going forward, the growth profile?

Jerry A. Davis -- Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

Yeah, Juan, this is Jerry. It definitely contributes more to some market. Washington D.C. got a heavy dose of it this quarter, was up about -- other income was up about 15%, so been higher than the average. But the two biggest markets are Seattle where other income was up 22% and Boston about 24%. The largest markets do tend to be in those bi-coastal markets where you get a significant contribution not only from parking but also from our (inaudible).

Juan Sanabria -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Trent Trujillo with Scotiabank. Please proceed with your question.

Trent Trujillo -- Scotiabank -- Analyst

Good afternoon, thanks for taking the time and the questions. So it looks like new lease growth was higher than renewals in a handful of your markets such as San Francisco, Monterey and Orlando. Do you see this occurrence as a short-term situation? Or is it perhaps more indicative of the strength of multi-family market as we head into 2019?

Jerry A. Davis -- Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

I guess probably more short-term. You do tend to see, as you've noted renewal rate growth tends to be higher and you're going to see seasonality kick-in as you go into the fourth quarter. And during the fourth quarter this was the first quarter you see renewal stay pretty static with where they're today, but you see the fluctuations occur more on the inside. So I would expect that to come down.

But I will tell you the markets have been performing well overall. We've seen an extended leasing period, where market rents continued to grow through August before subsiding somewhat in September. The prior two year's market rents peaked in May for us. So this is more of a normalized year. So yes, we do see the rent side of the equation going into '19 being a bit stronger than it was a year ago.

Trent Trujillo -- Scotiabank -- Analyst

Thank you very much for that. Appreciate that. And Jerry, as a follow up. On recent calls you've highlighted the occupancy benefit you've had from short-term rentals but cautioned seasonal reasons, it could potentially drop, call it 20 to 25 basis points. Occupancy in the third quarter was at the high-end of your guidance, stayed pretty high. So have you seen any evidence of these short term renters moving out? Are they just continuing to stay longer? Maybe how should we think about this potential occupancy headwind from here?

Jerry A. Davis -- Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

No, they do move out. There is definitely seasonality. We're probably running today with about half the level we had in the middle of summer, and on it. But occupancy today is still just under 97%. So we've kind of reloaded those people with 12 months renters. So I wouldn't expect to see a drop in occupancy. But I'll point out you did see our turnover pop a bit this quarter. It was higher than it was last year's third quarter by 40 basis points.

And if you take out the effect of short-term rentals in both periods turnover would have actually been down 60 basis points. So it does have an impact on that, but we are able, as I just said to maintain that higher occupancy level throughout those slower seasons.

Trent Trujillo -- Scotiabank -- Analyst

All right, thank you very much. Appreciate it.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Rich Hill with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your questions.

Richard Hill -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Hey, guys. How are you? So look, you guys have put up consistently great results quarter-after-quarter. And I'm wondering what could make you even more bullish from here or maybe more bearish? I'm thinking sort of about it on a micro market-by-market basis. We've seen some of your peers start to diversify away from some markets may be New York City. So I'm curious if there is any markets where you're more bullish on and what markets you might be less bullish on than maybe previously?

Jerry A. Davis -- Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

I'll start. Then either Harry or Joe can jump in or Tom. We see, as we go into 2019, lot of the markets that have performed well this year probably continue be near the top end of our revenue growth, whether it's Florida, Seattle or Monterey, Des Moines (ph). The weak markets I think will probably stay weakish. But we see New York is getting a little bit more stable as evidenced by our results this quarter. It will still be one of our worst performing markets next year, until that new supply that delivers this year and over next year gets absorbed.

I think Baltimore and Boston both continue to be weakish next year. But I don't know if any of those are indications that we would either add to or exit markets based on short-term factors. If you guys have add anything to add?

Joseph D. Fisher -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

I'd just say from the broader business standpoint perhaps, Rich that covers the market, in terms of what we're excited about on the transaction side. You have seen us continue to deploy capital into Developer Capital Program. I think over the coming quarters you'll hopefully see us harvest some gains out of the Wolff joint venture through several options that we have coming up there. I think we're going to see increasing options for traditional redevelopment unit additions and things of that nature. As well as we continue to try to find a way to stabilize out the development pipeline while maintaining discipline around the acquired return.

So I think we are still pretty excited on the capital deployment front and of course sourcing that capital through dispositions and free cash flow. The only thing that would be somewhat what worrisome that impacts all of us is of course rates going higher. So if you want Fed's fund rate, obviously with floating rate exposure and refinancing activity that does eat in to growth over time but I think we have down a good job of managing the debt maturity profile and getting ahead of that to a great degree. So it's kind of positive and negative just on the broader business front.

Richard Hill -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Got it, and so Joe, maybe just one quick follow-up on the development capital program. Look, we've seen lenders continue to pull back. I'm wondering if you're seeing any pullback from maybe even the GSCs that's leading you to have bigger competitive advantage. And are you may be more cautious on the development capital program than you were a year ago? Are you more positive just given more opportunity?

Joseph D. Fisher -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

No. I think there is definitely more opportunity out there to be had for us, despite the fact that you see permits and starts activity coming down. What we've talked about in past quarters is the fact that the funnel has widened to a degree, as we've been out there pretty consistently for a couple of years now at this point. So the fact that we've been able to execute, we've been a good partner to a number of these developers. I think we are seeing more opportunities which allows you to pick and choose your points.

In terms of your comments on the call it, the senior piece of the stack on the construction financing size or the firm piece of GSCs construction financing really hasn't moved much since last quarter when we talked about it. Taking up a little bit in terms of loan to cost and seen spreads compress a little bit but nothing meaningful and definitely not offsetting the increase in LIBOR that we've seen over the last couple of years. And on the GSC front, they continue to be very active. I think they are on pace to again do $70 billion each.

They're definitely the most competitive on the firm side when you go out to 10-year lower-level refinancing. If you're going on the short end side the pension money, the bank money is probably a little bit more competitive. But we're typically looking out to longer duration. We're not going fixed-rate financing on the secured side.

Jerry A. Davis -- Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

Rich, this is Jerry. Couple of things to add Developer Capital Program. I mean Harry has done a good job of having a number of relationships there. And as you know after you close a deal, the first time with someone it's a lot easier the second time around. And so we've got a pretty good net there to go fishing with. And I think there'll be plenty of opportunities down the road should we want to expand that program, and we will.

Harry G. Alcock -- Senior Vice President and Chief Investment Officer

And just to kind of close it out. This is Harry. Remember equity capital has also come down. Joe talked a lot about that capital coming down which short of creates the position the capital stack for this type of investment. So we continue to see opportunities going forward. And as Joe mentioned a couple of those options are coming up. So you'll see kind of capital advance, meaning repayments a little over $40 million over the next few months which does give us ample capacity to go back out and reload and do new deals next year.

Richard Hill -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Got it. Thank you guys. I appreciate it.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Austin Wurschmidt -- KeyBanc Capital Markets -- Analyst

Hey, guys. Quick one on market exposure. You talked about the D.C. lightening your exposures there being temporary. You've mentioned Philly being interesting. I think you talked about Downtown LA over time. So just curious what markets maybe feel like you are little overextended in today or even looking to exit that could be sources of capital as you reup or enter some of these other markets?

Joseph D. Fisher -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Hey Austin, it's Joe. In terms of market exposures, I'd say that kind of way we look is really where we're going to deploy capital into and where we're going to focus the resources. From a disposition standpoint we're only going to source $200 million or $300 million a year, so one or two assets per year. So there's often times more asset-specific reasons as opposed to MSA-specific reasons like in the case of D.C., that we may choose to exit an asset.

In terms of the D.C. exposure overall, we are overweight relative to the peer index. I think we have the most exposure there to that market but we continue to like having that exposure, given our expectations for the market as well as kind of long-term stability that it provides. Philly is another one we are looking at. I think if you look across a number of other DCP deals that we did in the quarter we did one out in Santa Monica and L.A. That continues to be a market that we would like to try to add a little bit more to. We did a deal in Orlando, which brings (ph) well to us as well.

So I think if you kind of follow our activity over the next year or so you will probably see us deploying our resources and our capital in the markets that we see as appealing. But there is no really markets that we're necessarily looking to exit today or do any wholesale portfolio shift.

Austin Wurschmidt -- KeyBanc Capital Markets -- Analyst

Thanks, and then sticking maybe with D.C. and then thinking little more broadly. But you mentioned a densification opportunity there. Just curious across the portfolio, one where specifically in D.C. are the opportunities today? And then how big of an opportunity is that across the portfolio? And how do those returns stack up versus newly sourced land that you've said you have cited as being much more difficult?

Harry G. Alcock -- Senior Vice President and Chief Investment Officer

Yeah, Rich, this is Harry. I think we've got a couple of opportunities in D.C. And I guess it's probably easier to talk about those once they become reality, as you can imagine. Each of those much like any development require some level of approval at the city level. I think across the portfolio we have several hundred units of opportunity. It doesn't mean that they're all going to hit but just the size of it, it's that type of thing.

And just in terms of understanding the economics, typically if land is call it 15% to 25% of your total development cost, land and lease is somewhere between zero or in the case of some of these densification opportunities we may have to tear down some buildings but we'll get a very high ratio of new units to units torn down. So the effective land basis will be quite low. So the overall return should be meaningfully higher. I mean if you figure your overall cost is 15% to 20% lower that's 75 to 100 basis points premium over sort of traditional ground up development.

Austin Wurschmidt -- KeyBanc Capital Markets -- Analyst

Great, thanks for the detail, Harry.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Richard Hightower with Evercore ISI.

Rich Hightower -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

Good afternoon, guys. We have covered a lot of ground on the call already, but I'm still trying to understand (ph) to see if you can rip on some of the trends in move out for home purchases. And I know Jerry you gave out some stats on that earlier, but just, have you noticed any changes, may be across markets or between suburban and urban and maybe in light of mortgage rates going up, and then changes from last year's tax law changes. Anything that we should be paying attention to?

Jerry A. Davis -- Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

You know, honestly no. Move out home purchase are pretty flat over the last year at about 12% of the reasons for move out. And when you look at the markets where you have a higher percentage for move out it's the ones you would expect, which is typically sunbelt suburban and the ones with the least move outs to home purchase tend to be the urban coasters. So no real changes.

Rich Hightower -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. Then just with respect to personnel expense being down year-over-year in the year-to-date period, how long can you kind of continue that runway given labor tightness? And how much -- how are you offsetting that in terms of efficiencies? Maybe just a little more detail around the puts and takes there?

Jerry A. Davis -- Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

Sure. Yes, I mean first thing I'd say is we did give our employees typical performance raises last year, in that 3% range. So we have been able to find efficiency with a number growing by at least 3%. I guess I'd start with that. What we've really done is analyzed the benefits at times of either outsourcing or automating some functions in a way that it doesn't impact our resident base and I think when you look at our revenue growth and the satisfaction our residents have shown, it's been moving at a high rate, there is no impact on NIM.

But I think by finding those deltas of ways to make our teams more efficient and on natural attrition being able to at times outsource, it's been helpful. The other thing we've been able to do is create opportunities for our higher level operating team members to manage multiple properties. So it creates opportunity for them. So I think we're still in the early stages of working on this. We started last year, looking hard at it. We've continued to look this year but I think the automated platform that we've introduced years ago where our residents have shown us that they prefer self-service has benefited us, I think as we move into our future.

So there's going to be similar opportunities. So I don't think it's just this year. I think we'll be able to consistently find some ways to continually create efficiency.

Harry G. Alcock -- Senior Vice President and Chief Investment Officer

And Rich a lot of what Jerry's reaping the benefits of today, was really launched about four years ago when he did a time motion study for most of the work force, and really determined what standards were for all the functions we perform. And now you go through all of that analytics and you really come back with what's the right operating model for the future. And with the right technology, self-serve template on top of it you're going to see this continue to take over our business. And people, as you can imagine are -- at a high variable, with a high cost structure associated with them and we're going to find ways to make everybody more efficient.

Rich Hightower -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

Got it. Thank you for the color guys.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Drew Babin with Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Andrew T. Babin -- Robert W. Baird & Co -- Analyst

Hey, good morning. A quick follow-up on Pacific City. You talked about occupancy kind of trending in line with where you expected to be, but didn't talk as much about rate. I was just curious where rate is relative to initial expectations. And then quickly just on both 345 Harrison Street and Pacific City, should we think of these projects stabilizing kind of by the end of next year or maybe that date -- ?

Jerry A. Davis -- Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

Yes. The current rates on Pacific City are call it 365 to 370, so just a hair under what we had trended our original underwriting but not much. And I would say on stabilization I think you're going to see both of the deals either stabilize closer to the first quarter. When you think about 345 Harrison, one thing I would point out, while we were at 74% leased at the end of the quarter 10% of that property has affordable units that were still going through the lottery process with the city. And we should have that 10% moved in early in the first quarter.

So that property's done exceedingly well, has rents in the 540 or so range. So Pacific City we're continuing to lease well but we are over a year into the lease up on this. So you're having to backfill for something about at the same time. But we would expect that one also to stabilize give or take year end.

Joseph D. Fisher -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Drew, this is Joe. Just to clarify on that in terms of giving you a little bit more color on the actual yields. So in 1Q '20 which Jerry was referring to on the stabilization quarter we think the overall pipeline's stabilizing out in the high-fives. So you have a 345 Harrison in call it 6.25 quarter range, Pac City at 5.5 range and then our two assets in the joint venture also stabilizing now with Vitruvian in the mid-6s and Vision at the mid-5s. So overall when you look at it somewhere in the high-5 stabilization out in 2020.

Andrew T. Babin -- Robert W. Baird & Co -- Analyst

Okay, very helpful. And then last question here just on the Metlife. Can you talk at all about the kind of whether you saw some sequential year-over-year improvement in leasing trends as you did in the consolidated portfolio, kind of 2Q and 3Q? Are you seeing blended lease rates trending better than they were at this time last year within the JV?

Jerry A. Davis -- Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

Yes, they are up a bit, not as pronounced as in the same stores. I don't have the data in front of me on a property-by-property basis but you can see in the 3Q versus 3Q last year on Attachment 12A that revenue popped up to growing by 1.6%, which while still not at the level of our same-store, it's quite an improvement from last quarter. You've still got certain properties in that portfolio whether it's Columbus Square in the upper west side, which is almost 20% of the JV. That one is coming in a slightly negative and then you've got a few other properties that are combating new supply. So they don't have as much pricing power. And those are deals in Downtown Denver, East Village in San Diego as well as our some of our Addison properties in Dallas.

Andrew T. Babin -- Robert W. Baird & Co -- Analyst

Okay, great. That's all from me. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Alexander Goldfarb with Sandler O'Neill. Please proceed with your question.

Alexander Goldfarb -- Sandler O'Neill -- Analyst

All right. Good morning. Good morning out there. Jerry, first question is, it's been a trend -- you commented on turnover being lower if you adjust for the expirations in the quarter and certainly been an industry trend. But on the other hand you hear about endless amount of companies trying to find employees and unable to find workers. So how do we rationalize the fact there seems to be a lot of companies that are looking for workers and yet turnover in the apartments is down.

I would think that if companies are competing that workers would be moving around and turnover increase but that's not what we're seeing. What are you guys seeing at the property level for residents? Are they not job helping or what do you guys think is driving that?

Jerry A. Davis -- Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

I think you're still seeing job hopping but I see frequently there's so much demand for employees in pretty much all of our markets but not really having to leave the cities they live in to find new jobs.

Joseph D. Fisher -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Okay, my net worth, A, you have an older renter base, they are 37 years old. They tend not to hop as much. 2, mass transportation infrastructures are making it a lot easier to get from one side of a city to another. So I think there is a number of contributing factors and it's a pain in the ass to move.

Jerry A. Davis -- Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

Yes it is a pain. I think there's a few things that keep turnover down. I think one is I think we are all addressing each more, providing better customer service, but I think the other thing is a lot of our markets you're not seeing this irrational pricing that came to -- came into our face in 2017 and 2016 where people were offered two months free. That lured people out even if it is a pain in the ass to move. So I think with the one month free, that normalized pricing methodology if you're keeping your residents happy they're going to stick with you longer.

Alexander Goldfarb -- Sandler O'Neill -- Analyst

Okay. And then second question is on New York you mentioned that it is still one of your weaker markets. And just sort of curious, now that you've had a few of your peers sell some 421as and you can see what pricing is. Do you think that you may consider selling some of your 421a assets, and may be lightening your exposure to New York? Or your view of your holdings in New York is unchanged?

Joseph D. Fisher -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Hey, Alex, this is Joe. I'll just start with a comment that the buy-sell decision on a market's going to be independent of the 421 aspect. Like any buyer's going to account for that within their underwriting, and therefore the pricing that we receive. So it's not going to a 421-driven decision. But New York as a whole, you mentioned it's been a little bit sluggish in years of late. But when we look at the macro drivers and the fundamental specific drivers for New York, we do think we're getting on to a period now where rent growth is not necessarily correlated well with the improvement in the market overall.

And so I think you will see a period, that going forward not necessarily next year, but over the next four years or so, where New York starts to lift up from a underperformer to potential an out performer. So given that, I don't think you'll see us winding up on New York. That also say, as we talk about we're looking at redevelopment opportunities. New York is included in the basket. So hopefully we can find something that makes sense out there in New York and get some additional capital deployed.

The last piece of course is the qualitative factors of what's taking place with New York Senate and whether or not that flips to more vacillating and therefore more focus on the affordable or the rent-stabilized piece of the business. It's part of our discussions but at this point it's still up in the air. So we're waiting to see what takes place in the next week or so.

Alexander Goldfarb -- Sandler O'Neill -- Analyst

Yes. The rent control thing is obviously I think it's underappreciated but it's potentially a big issue. So I appreciate your comments, Joe.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Rob Steven (ph) with Janney Montgomery Scott. Please proceed with your question.

Robert Stevenson -- Janney Montgomery Scott -- Analyst

Jerry your feeding the pretty Seattle in terms of same-store revenue growth other than of course just being a better operators. Is this other income think is it a B versus A thing? A sub-market thing? Or something else?

Jerry A. Davis -- Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

all the above. I think a lot of it is east side and west side and a lot of supplies into west side. But I do think there's other incomes that significant factor it probably added 200 basis points to our growth this year. So I think that's fairly sizable. And I'll tell you we have an exceptional operating team that's been together for a long time in Seattle. So I think that local regional team is the best in the sector.

Robert Stevenson -- Janney Montgomery Scott -- Analyst

Okay. And then Joe or Harry on your land summary page you've got another project in Boston that you could do in and then it looks like all the other land is in Addison in and out the MetLife JV. It's current construction costs I think these projects currently meet desired return thresholds? And then I guess given that you just completed 383 units of how are you thinking about that market and the number of units you want to bring online over there over the next couple of years given the levels supply in the greater market?

Harry G. Alcock -- Senior Vice President and Chief Investment Officer

Rob it's Harry. So just looking at that land side it's a double land we are working on for a long time. Our hope is that we can get to economics that would compel a construction start here in the relatively near future but we are still working on that. Vitruvian remember the 383 units we leased that in about six months. So we were leasing that at about 60 units per month. So we're actively working on the next two phases there with an expectation that we could start construction on those sometime next year assuming the economics work. But remember we leased it up very quickly at rents that we increased 3x of 4x through the lease-up period. So it that one leased up very well which speaks to the demand that exists in that sub-market at that price point which is a relatively affordable price point significantly below the other three projects that we built there and significantly below for example uptown rents.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of John Kim with BMO Capital Markets.

John Kim -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

On your DCP program can you just remind us what percentage of the investment you made underwrite potentially owned?

Joseph D. Fisher -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

John that's one of the parameters every time we go into the Developer Capital Program is that we are going to underwrite it as if we are the ultimate owner. We want to make sure we're invested in a real estate some markets and markets that we do want to own. In terms of our actual hit rate over time we've had a couple of successes coming out of the Denver deal here in terms of. We also had several others that we've been able to execute on and we mentioned a couple upcoming within that we think we'll be able to execute on and when the market value is greater than the option price.

When you go down to the DCP other section down on 12b those other seven investments none of those have explicit options that we're able to exercise on. You do have two of them that have back in participation. So we do have participation in those economics above and beyond the FX rate that we received. But we think we do get a seat of the table by seeing the operating plans being in the position in the capital stack and having the existing relationship with the equity.

So hopefully we have an opportunity over time to end some of those assets but the maturity profile and those are still 3 4 five years away. So we got some time on those.

John Kim -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

And Jerry you mentioned technology initiative that have contributed for your lower personal cost. But I'm just wondering if you could provide any color on other discussions you're having with companies that may impact your business over the next few years?

Jerry A. Davis -- Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

Yes. I think over the next couple of years you're going to see us probably start to implement more smart home technology into our units. I think the good thing about that is something residents going to pay for because it does make their life so much more convenient and it's also something that makes our workforce much more efficient. And I guess lastly I think it's going to tie as we start to explore more self-guided during which we believe a large majority residents would prefer to do. It's going to make it easier for them to get around other community. So I think you're going to see advances in all of those aspects.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of John Guinee with Stifel.

John Guinee -- Stifel Nicolaus -- Analyst

John Guinee, thank you. Just a curiosity question. You invest about $8. eight million in Santa Monica 66-unit property. That was very -- if not impossible to develop in Santa Monica. So I'm just curious about the sort of the history of that deal? And why you would be able to attain a 12% return for four years on that deal which seems like pretty rich returns?

Harry G. Alcock -- Senior Vice President and Chief Investment Officer

So John, this is Harry. So the history of the developer we're working on that one has developed probably half a dozen deals in the city of Santa Monica. So he has a long history of success in finding land sites, getting land sites entitled. They're working them through the very lengthy entitlement process getting to a point where he can actually hold a permit and begin the construction.

So that's sort of the developer background. In terms of the returns, remember, this is a fixed return. We actually took a position in the capital stack in this one that was relatively lower than in most of our other deals whereas typically we go up to 85% of cost. In this one just given the returns are going to be relatively lower given high cost even in a high-rent market. We capped that out at about 79%. So even with that 12% coupon over three to four years we have sufficient cushion in order to make the a viable investment.

Robert Stevenson -- Janney Montgomery Scott -- Analyst

Okay, and then any thoughts on what the total development cost per unit is for that particular development?

Harry G. Alcock -- Senior Vice President and Chief Investment Officer

It's close to $1 million a unit.

Robert Stevenson -- Janney Montgomery Scott -- Analyst

Okay, thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Tayo Okusanya with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Omotayo Okusanya -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Yes, good afternoon. A couple of quick ones from me. First of all the outlook for New York in 2019, and just kind of given some of the industry data talking about deliveries will be much less in '19 versus '18. How are you thinking about New York instead of being a drag as it is right now maybe being more of a positive contributor in '19?

Jerry A. Davis -- Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

Tayo, this is Jerry. I mean you're right. We see the same slowdown in deliveries, both the units that have delivered this year as well as the ones that will next year still have to get absorbed. Heavy percentage of those are in Brooklyn as well as around City as you know. And they're going to compete more directly against our lower-priced Manhattan product down on the Financial District as well as Murray Hill. So we do see New York continuing to be one of our lower revenue producers next year. This year we're going to come in a slightly positive.

I think it's probably going to improve a bit next year. But as Joe said earlier we like the long-term prospects for New York but I don't think it really comes to play in 2019 by a great measure.

Omotayo Okusanya -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. And then I may have missed it but did you make any comments earlier about kind of given just around the corner?

Joseph D. Fisher -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Hey, Tayo, it's Joe. We did not comment. As you mentioned it is right around the corner. So I think next week we will either have a lot more to talk about or significantly less maybe. But we are happy with the pulling that we've seen that you have seen on top off. So we're happy to see the messaging by the coalition seems to be taking hold. And we don't think the solution to the affordability issue or the housing issue in California is one of rent control and one that drives less future supply. And so we'll see where it takes from in the next seven days. Hopefully we'll have less to talk about next week.

Omotayo Okusanya -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Got you. And then just indulge me one more. Joe, just your comments earlier on about risk rewards and attractive risk rewards. As you think about each of your different business lines on a risk reward-adjusted basis, could you help me kind of rank what you're finding most attractive right now whether it's with redevs or what you have and what you're finding least attractive?

Joseph D. Fisher -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes. So again to look at it in terms of total return relative to risk opportunity but also total dollar size. So if you go into the big dollar ticket items meaning acquisitions development DCP, acquisitions would rate lowest on the opportunity set, aside from the two upcoming options that we think are in the money with Wolff. Next up would be development where we continue to have desire to deploy capital. And Harry mentioned a couple of opportunities on balance sheet as well as densification opportunities that we think we have a line of sight on and we'll continue to work through on the cost process there and make sure they hit our return hurdles.

Then DCP you've seen throughout the years, we have taken down development and land acquisition expectations and rotated those dollars over to DCP. That kind of gives you a sense of where I think the best risk-adjusted return is. On the smaller ticket items meaning redev, additions revenue enhancing we still have plenty of opportunities there. There's not big (ph) enough dollars. So we still have more work to do there and hopefully more to announce in the next 12 months.

Omotayo Okusanya -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Rich Anderson with Mizuho Securities. Please proceed with the question.

Rich Anderson -- Mizuho Securities -- Analyst

Sorry to keep things going, a couple of questions. Joe, when you mentioned as much as down 10% next year on supply, was that factoring in some sort of slippage assumption?

Joseph D. Fisher -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes. Correct, Rich. Similar to how we felt about it this year, we look at supply permitting activity and local expectations, apply some slippage factor, approximately 10%-or-so within our markets. So the downtown has slippage in there, as well as an assumption slippage from the last couple of months of this year into next year.

Rich Anderson -- Mizuho Securities -- Analyst

Okay. So pulling that into next year down -- holding everything else constant, our lower supply market would be good fundamentally speaking. The other variable courses on the demand side. Is there anything about 2019 coming up where you have a sort of line of sight into some disruption and demand side whether it's millennials' becoming older and perhaps being more inclined to start families? Or do you feel when you net it all out that '19 starts to look like an incrementally better year than '18?

Joseph D. Fisher -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

I don't think, on your comment about millennials getting older or changes in life of preferences. I don't believe there is anything on the horizon on that front given that you've seen some price appreciation over the last three four years average 5% to 6% relative to rents on the 2% to 3% range. You've seen 30-year mortgage rates go up about 100 basis points to 20%. So the relative affordability, trade between housing and multi-family housing obviously tilts to our side. So I think demand side on that front remains steady.

And then on overall job growth wage growth front I think you're running up against a tougher comps on full employment. So job growth may come down. But I think what we have seen is wage growth continued to outpace and offset that. So you probably have an overall demand of total income growth, that nets kind of that is slightly down supply but I have total income city down from this year and staying kind of this pace of equilibrium, so longer term inflation.

Rich Anderson -- Mizuho Securities -- Analyst

Okay. And then last question. Have you guys done any sort of sort of correlation between how changes in supply impact changes in same-store revenue growth over your long history as a public company? And if you can, just can you just whip up a quick algorithm for us right now? I'm sure you could do that on your --

Joseph D. Fisher -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

It's clearly one of the factors that we consider when we think about both near term and intermediate term demand and supply and prospects of rent growth. But we haven't done a correlation of supply relative to rent growth. We think it's normally minus, so it's not a stand-alone factor.

Harry G. Alcock -- Senior Vice President and Chief Investment Officer

Yeah, I don't have any algorithm I do have 30-plus years of doing this. And what I would tell you striking for me is the amount of data that's available on starts and financing. And that transparency has made the market more efficient and more responsive. And so the eras in the 70s and 80s were we would overbuild a market and then suffer through occupancy drops of 15%, 20% seem to be something of the past. And the market is much more responsive, anticipatory you will its supply equation. So I don't see it de-railing us.

And even if you look at this last couple of years where supply peaked up in a few markets we very seldom went negative on friends. And so I don't see the same dynamics, Rich that it has been in the past. And we'll just keep diligently digging for opportunities.

Rich Anderson -- Mizuho Securities -- Analyst

Likewise your ability to grow rents on an annual basis perhaps is a more for CPI-plus type of business rather than ever testing double digits again. Would you agree with that as well?

Joseph D. Fisher -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Well, I think that's a little bit different because you look at markets like Seattle where new dynamic companies and cities were almost regenerated. So there's going to be a lot more differentiation around the future around where capital is formed what companies what their hiring factor are. And I think we have going forward the most is demographics. I mean this wave of millennial right behind it is wave of similar size and scope that's coming through and probably going to even have a higher acceptance of renting for longer periods.

So we look at this. We kind of look and say boy, I used to think all the millennials are going to age out and go out and get three-bedroom two-bath homes in the suburbs. There's going to be a wide group of people refilling those slots if that does come to fruition. So it looks for us like a long ending game maybe not 2018 like you just saw last week but it will be a long-running game.

Rich Anderson -- Mizuho Securities -- Analyst

All right. Sounds good. Thanks guys.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions left in the queue. So I'd like to hand the call back over to Chairman CEO and President Mr. Toomey for closing remarks.

Thomas W. Toomey -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President

Well, thank you and first thanks all of you for your time and interest in who we are today. As I started out the call, business is very good. And we are certainly grateful for all our associates and the teamwork that they've put in this year and look forward to closing out the year and getting to a strong '19. And we look forward to seeing many of you in San Francisco next week. And with that take care.

Operator

This does conclude today's teleconference. You may now disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

Duration: 62 minutes

Call participants:

Chris Van Ens -- Vice President

Thomas W. Toomey -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President

Jerry A. Davis -- Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

Joseph D. Fisher -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Nick Joseph -- Citi -- Analyst

Juan Sanabria -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Trent Trujillo -- Scotiabank -- Analyst

Richard Hill -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Harry G. Alcock -- Senior Vice President and Chief Investment Officer

Austin Wurschmidt -- KeyBanc Capital Markets -- Analyst

Rich Hightower -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

Andrew T. Babin -- Robert W. Baird & Co -- Analyst

Alexander Goldfarb -- Sandler O'Neill -- Analyst

Robert Stevenson -- Janney Montgomery Scott -- Analyst

John Kim -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

John Guinee -- Stifel Nicolaus -- Analyst

Omotayo Okusanya -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Rich Anderson -- Mizuho Securities -- Analyst

More UDR analysis

Transcript powered by AlphaStreet

This article is a transcript of this conference call produced for The Motley Fool. While we strive for our Foolish Best, there may be errors, omissions, or inaccuracies in this transcript. As with all our articles, The Motley Fool does not assume any responsibility for your use of this content, and we strongly encourage you to do your own research, including listening to the call yourself and reading the company's SEC filings. Please see our Terms and Conditions for additional details, including our Obligatory Capitalized Disclaimers of Liability.

Motley Fool Transcribers has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.