BP p.l.c. (BP) Q4 2019 Earnings Call Transcript

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BP p.l.c. (BP 0.13%)
Q4 2019 Earnings Call
Feb 4, 2020, 4:00 a.m. ET

Contents:

• Prepared Remarks
• Questions and Answers
• Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Welcome to the BP Presentation to the Financial Community Webcast and Conference Call.

I now hand over to Craig Marshall, Head of Investor Relations.

Craig Marshall -- Group Head of Investor Relations

Good morning everyone and welcome to BP's Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results Presentation for 2019. I'm joined here today by Helge Lund, Chairman; Bob Dudley, Group Chief Executive; Brian Gilvary, Chief Financial Officer; and Bernard Looney, Upstream, Chief Executive and CEO Designate.

Before we begin, I need to draw your attention to our cautionary statement. During today's presentation, we will make forward-looking statements that refer to our estimates, plans and expectations. Actual results and outcomes could differ materially due to factors we note on this slide and in our UK and SEC filings. Please refer to our Annual Report, Stock Exchange announcement and SEC filings for more details. These documents are available on our website.

Now over to Helge.

Helge Lund -- Chairman

Good morning, everyone. I'm Helge Lund, BP Chairman. It's not usual for the Chair to join these calls, but I'm going to make an exception today because it's Bob Dudley's last investor call for BP and his final day as Chief Executive. After a 40-year career, a nearly 10 at the top, that's quite something. Bob is going to speak shortly, but he is not a man given to self congratulation. So I wanted to offer some reflections on his period as Chief Executive.

But first, I should also acknowledge another announcement made last month. Brian Gilvary has decided to step down too after 34 years with BP and eight as a CFO. I hope Brian won't mind me saying that he has been one of the truly great CFOs. But Brian is going to be around until June. We'll get some more value out of him yet and pay tribute properly when the time comes.

So back to Bob. BP today is very different to the BP of October 2010 when he took on the job. The fact that BP is so strong today is in many ways because of Bob's handling of that early period and his leadership sense. His first task was not one to envy, recovery from the Deepwater Horizon tragedy. But Bob quickly stabilized BP, then he changed BP's culture, instilled new values and helped make BP safer and profitable again. I count that as the first great achievement of his leadership.

Then there was the oil price downturn, a big challenge for the whole industry. Bob made BP leaner and more modern, and his phrase value over volume became a guide for the business and BP came out even stronger. That was his second great achievement.

The third is Bob's leadership into the energy transition. He has invested in low carbon and positioned BP to dynamically drive the energy transition forward, and of course that story is evolving. And we're really excited for what Bernard is going to do next.

So thank you, Bob, for your leadership and for the position in which you leave BP, you have our gratitude.

Bob Dudley -- Group Chief Executive

Helge, thank you for your kind words. And good morning everyone. As this is my last presentation to you as CEO, I'd like to break from the mold a little and spend a few minutes talking about BP's journey over the last period before handing over to Brian to run through the results. Bernard is here today too and he will say a few words to close the presentation before Brian and I take your questions.

Looking back to the beginning of this decade, BP was facing one of the biggest challenges in its history. Deepwater Horizon was a tragic accident, which shook BP to its core. It was clear then that we needed to not only deal with the incident, but also focus clearly on the future of the organization. To do this, we identified three key priorities for the Group, safety and operational risk management, rebuilding trust and delivering value growth for our shareholders.

We have made many advances since then with these priorities defining the company we have become, one that is well positioned to succeed as the world's energy system transition.

Now, a little more detail on each priority. First, safety and operational risk. Safety is a core value and we have done an enormous amount to make BP a safer place to work. We have reinforced our safety and operational risk function, putting in place systems and processes to improve our operations and performance. This includes bringing together a set of global requirements under one operating management system. Along with our values of safety, respect, excellence, courage and one team, it defines how we work in a systematic way across BP.

We have also reshaped our businesses and embedded a functional model changing what it feels like to work for BP. And externally, we have changed and enhanced how we work with our partners. And all of this has made a difference. We have seen an almost 70% decline in Tier 1 and Tier 2 process safety events since 2011, and this year, achieved our lowest ever recordable injury frequency, both important successes.

We have, however, seen an increase in process safety events in 2019 mainly following some asset acquisitions. This serves as an important reminder that we must remain steadfast in our focus on safety. Our aim remains the same to have no accidents, no harm to people and no damage to the environment.

Next rebuilding trust in BP. At the time I said that the building of trust comes from doing what you say you're going to do. And I believe we did that in meeting our obligations in the Gulf. Not only were we quick to establish a clear process to meet our legal and financial commitments with the US Gulf states and the federal government, but we also applied rigorous standards to our work, going above and beyond regulatory requirements in many regards.

We also implemented the lessons we learned across our operations globally and continue to share our learnings with others. It was also important to rebuild trust in the decisions we were making about BP's future. We had to find a way to move from response to recovery and to be clear and transparent in our communications.

So as some of you will recall, in 2011, we laid out our 10 point plan. It included five things you could expect from BP and five things to measure us by. We were already in action on many of them, but this plan clearly set out how we were going to move BP forward.

Turning next to growing shareholder value, which has always been a key priority and is based upon some guiding principles, which have endured and evolved with the business over time. Value over volume, taking decisions to maximize the value we can create rather than the volume we can produce. Active portfolio management, and following an extensive divestment program, much of which was delivered in an environment of over $100 per barrel, our business looks very different.

We think carefully about the shape and scope of our global activities, divesting parts of our portfolio where we don't see a clear strategic fit, or where we believe others can create more value. Developing long-term strategic relationships. We see enormous value and long-term mutual relationships with partners and governments, particularly as we look to focus on key geographies.

And establishing strong value growth opportunities. In the Upstream, this means driving growth from high quality major projects and optimizing our existing operations. In the Downstream, accessing growth and marketing and advantage manufacturing to deliver strong underlying growth and returns. And in alternative energy, deploying BP's capabilities or partnering with others to grow in low carbon businesses and raise capital.

Finally, cost and capital discipline. Staying disciplined around our portfolio and investments with a relentless focus on capital, cost efficiency. These guiding principles, have been and remain good for our business and core to our strategic decision making. They served us well in the immediate aftermath of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. They provided a set of building blocks to support our recovery and delivery of our 10 point plan. They ensured our business was resilient in the face of the oil price downturn and they created the foundation, which along with a greater certainty of the Gulf of Mexico liabilities, meant that in early 2017 we were able to lay out our new strategy for getting back to growth.

And so here we are today. We have a powerful investor proposition of growing sustainable free cash flow and distributions to our shareholders over the long term. We are focused on running our operations safely, reliably and efficiently, which I truly believe is essential for the long-term success of BP.

We have created a business that is fit for the future, shaping a distinctive portfolio over the last decade that we believe is a well positioned frame to face the rapidly changing energy landscape. And we will continue to be focused on value and returns, making disciplined investment decisions, while also managing our costs.

Our proposition is underpinned by the five year growth strategy we laid out in early 2017. Growing advantaged oil and gas in the Upstream, market led growth in the Downstream, venturing and low carbon across multiple fronts and modernizing the whole group. In service of this, we have built up our businesses in existing core regions and grown businesses in new markets. We've started up 24 major projects in the Upstream since 2016, including Shah Deniz 2 together with the Southern Gas Corridor, one of the world's biggest engineering projects.

We significantly transform our downstream business and are accessing new growth markets such as Mexico and India.

We're back into solar, attracting lots of capital with fast growing Lightsource BP. We are in biofuels in Brazil and we're fast charging vehicles in the UK. In the US Lower 48, we completed our biggest acquisition in 20 years. We've built distinctive partnerships around the world, including with Rosneft in Russia, Reliance in India and Aker BP in Norway. And reinforced strategic relationships with governments in places such as Azerbaijan, Oman, and Abu Dhabi.

Across the group, we are using technology to look for new ways to build and develop distinctive capabilities for our people and our operations. All of this is in support of our proposition to grow sustainable free cash flow and distributions to shareholders over the long term. And we are doing just that, having today announced a dividend increase, bringing our dividend for the fourth quarter to $0.105 per ordinary share or $0.63 per ADR.

In summary, we are a global integrated energy business with a strong set of capabilities, global reach and a talented workforce. And I believe we are in a strong position to manage our business in this fast changing energy landscape.

So, all that leaves me to do is to hand over to Brian to take you through the results in more detail.

Brian Gilvary -- Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Bob. And good morning, everyone. Looking first to highlights from the year, we are in the face of a challenging macro environment, we've delivered a strong set of results.

For the full year, we reported underlying replacement cost profit of $10 billion with strong underlying operating cash flow of $28.2 billion, including a working capital release of $300 million. Return on average capital employed was 8.9%. And over the year, we paid $8.5 billion in cash dividends and share buybacks.

I'll talk more on our financial results shortly, but first let me share some strategic and operational highlights.

In the Upstream, we started up five major projects and took five final investment decisions in the year underpinning our 2021 target and our longer-term growth options.

BPX Energy is also making good progress, delivering synergies this year of $240 million, above the target of $90 million we've planned. Well costs continue to decline in the Eagle Ford and Permian under BP operations and we are progressing high value, high impact activities as we continue to focus on value over volume.

In Downstream, we saw record refining throughput for the second consecutive year and continue to expand our retail convenience partnership model, which is now in around 1,600 sites across our network. In December, we signed an agreement with Reliance Industries to form a fuels retail and aviation joint venture in India, providing access to one of the world's largest and fastest growing energy markets.

We are also making progress in our advanced mobility agenda forming a joint venture with DiDi, the world's leading mobile transportation platform to develop electric vehicle charging infrastructure in China, the world's largest market for electric vehicles. And since announcing our new plastic recycling technology, BP Infinia, a consortium of leading companies has been formed to help accelerate commercialization leading to reduce plastic waste supporting the circular economy.

More broadly, we are progressing our low carbon agenda. In December, we increased our stake in our solar joint venture with Lightsource BP to 50% and completed the formation of BP Bunge Bioenergia, a leading company in Brazil's low carbon ethanol sugar and bio power market.

In summary, 2019 was another year of strong financial delivery. We are on track to deliver our 2021 targets and we continue to explore and develop new business models to provide opportunities through the energy transition.

Turning then to the macro environment, which remains volatile. In 2019, Brent crude averaged $63 per barrel in the fourth quarter and $64 per barrel for the full year. Oil prices were volatile through the year with supply and demand impacted by changing macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Slowing demand growth was largely balanced by OPEC plus production cuts and the deceleration in US onshore production growth. In recent weeks, growing concerns over the potential impact of Coronavirus on economic growth and global oil demand growth have also weighed on the oil price in the short-term.

Looking further into 2020, we expect stronger oil demand growth, driven by improving global economic sentiment and the impact of IMO 2020. Stronger non-OPEC supply growth driven by Norway, Brazil and Canada, and solid US growth is expected to support global supply with OPEC plus continuing to be the balancing factor.

Turning to gas. US Henry Hub was $2.50 per million British thermal units in the fourth quarter, down $1.20 versus a year ago. It averaged $2.60 in 2019, down $0.50 from the 2018 average. The US gas price has been impacted by continued supply growth, a mild winter and softer demand growth than that seen in 2018. We expect price to be driven by the balance between continued supply growth versus supply disruption in light of the current challenging price environment.

Finally, BP's global refining marker margin was $12.40 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $1.40 high versus a year ago and down $2.30 versus the third quarter. For the year, the refining marker margin remained largely unchanged. Yet 2019 was one of the worst refining environment since the financial crisis of 2008 with other crude and product differentials outside BP's RMM significantly impacted. This was largely due to global tightening and temporary disruptions in heavy and sour crude supply. Implementation of IMO 2020 should provide support to margins and widen heavy and sour crude oil differentials this year.

Moving to our fourth quarter results. BP's fourth quarter underlying replacement cost profit was $2.6 billion compared to $3.5 billion, a year ago and $2.3 billion in the third quarter of 2019. Compared to the third quarter, the result benefits from a lower effective tax rate, higher production due to improved weather in the Gulf of Mexico and strong commercial performance in refining. This is partly offset by lower Rosneft contribution following a strong third quarter and lower refining margins. Compared to a year ago, the result was impacted by lower heavy crude differentials and lower liquid and gas realizations, partly offset by lower effective tax rates and lower refinery turnarounds. And as Bob mentioned, the fourth quarter dividend payable in the first quarter of 2020 has been increased to $0.105 per ordinary share.

Turning to cash flow and our sources and uses of cash. Excluding oil spill related outgoings, underlying operating cash flow was $28.2 billion for the year of which $7.6 billion was generated in the fourth quarter. This included a working capital release of $300 million for the year and a build of $200 million in the fourth quarter. Organic capital expenditure was $4 billion in the fourth quarter and $15.2 billion for the year at the lower end of our targeted range.

Turning to inorganic cash flows, divestments under the proceeds in 2019 totaled $2.8 billion and we made post-tax Gulf of Mexico payments of $2.4 billion. Inorganic capital expenditure was $4.2 billion, including the final payments to BHP of $3.5 billion in the first half of the year. Gearing fell in the fourth quarter to 31.1%, reflecting lower net debt, partly offset by the impact of share buybacks on equity and impairments. As of today, we have completed our share buyback program, fully offsetting dilution from the scrip dividend since the third quarter of 2017. In total, we have repurchased 458 million ordinary shares at a cost of $3 billion. A scrip dividend alternative is not being offered in respect to the fourth quarter dividend. And we do not anticipate offering a scrip election for the foreseeable future.

Now turning to guidance and the first quarter of 2020. In the Upstream, we expect reported production to be lower due to the impact of our ongoing divestment program and planned seasonal maintenance and turnaround activities. While in the Downstream, we expect lower industry refining margins and wider North American heavy crude oil discounts.

Turning to guidance for the full year 2020. Upstream underlying production, excluding Rosneft is expected to be lower than 2019. I'll return shortly on that point. Organic capital expenditure is expected to remain toward the lower-end of our $15 billion to $17 billion range. The DD&A charge is expected to be slightly below the 2019 level, reflecting the impact of divestments. We expect the other businesses and corporate quarterly charge to continue to average around $350 million. The underlying effective tax rate is expected to be below 40% and Gulf of Mexico oil spill payments are expected to reduce to below $1 billion net of tax adjustments. As usual, we will provide updated rules of thumb for 2020 on price movements impacts for the year and expect to publish these on our website by the end of this month.

I will now provide some detail on the segments and progress toward 2021 cash flow target. Turning firstly Upstream where we continue to make progress against our 2021 production and cash flow targets. We've delivered 24 major projects since 2016, including the December start-up of the Alligin field in the North Sea. These projects range in size, scope and complexity and have on average been delivered on schedule and under budget. They are currently producing around 700,000 high margin barrels a day. We have 11 projects to go, including our West Nile Delta Raven project which is mechanically complete, but is currently addressing issues identified during commissioning. The project is now forecast to start up around the end of 2020. In addition, we expect to start up three further major projects in 2020. Projects in the Gulf of Mexico and North Sea will leverage existing infrastructure. While in India, we expect start-up of the first project in the KG D6 integrated development series and is eventually expected to contribute to over 10% of the country's projected gas demand.

Our 2021 start-ups are also on track. Ghazeer in Oman is expected to come on-stream in early 2021 and boost production by 500 million cubic feet per day and is currently ahead of schedule, under budget and 90% complete. Other material projects, including Mad Dog Phase 2 and Cassia Compression are also progressing well with both around 65% complete.

In BPX Energy, we continue to focus on value over volume diverting investment from high-volume lower margin gas production to higher margin oil production in the Permian and Eagle Ford basins where we continue to ramp-up activity. We expect full year underlying production to be lower than 2019 due to declines in lower margin gas basins. We expect reported production to be lower due to the above factor and the impact of the ongoing divestment program. We estimate the impact of divestments to be in the range of 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day to 250,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day in 2020. Of this, over half comes from lower margin onshore US gas production and much of the balance from lower margin oil.

So while we see 2020 as a transition year, we remain confident in the delivery of $14 billion to $15 billion of pre-tax cash in 2021. This is driven in large part by the expected delivery of around 250,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day from major projects still to come relative to 2019, most of which is due in 2021. And our target of $1 billion of free cash flow from BPX Energy supported by the ramp-up of liquids production and the realization of synergies, which we now expect to exceed $400 million by 2021.

In the Downstream, we continue to make strong strategic progress toward our 2021 targets. In 2019, earnings stood at $6.4 billion, reflecting a further $1.3 billion of underlying earnings growth in 2019 and bringing total underlying earnings growth since 2016 to $2.3 billion. This puts us firmly on track to deliver our target of more than $3 billion growth by 2021 while maintaining pre-tax returns of around 20%.

Moving to free cash flow. 2019 pre-tax cash was $6.5 billion at our planned conditions, net of capital investments of $3 billion. We remain on track to deliver $9 billion to $10 billion of pre-tax cash by 2021 with the drivers of this growth being firstly, a recovery of crude and product differentials, which impacted our 2019 results by around $1 billion.

As I've already mentioned, last year was one of the worst refining environment we have seen since the financial crisis. We expect differentials to widen and already see evidence of this in 2020 with North American sour crude and Brent euros differentials back above our 2020 and 2021 planning assumptions, partly reflecting the introduction of IMO 2020 regulations.

Second, we expect lower turnaround levels in both 2020 and 2021 following record activity over the last two years as we optimize our schedule to capture opportunities in the IMO 2020 changes. And finally, we expect further underlying earnings organic growth from each of our businesses.

In fuels marketing, continue to grow our differentiated retail offer and scale up of our new market entries, while developing EV positions across China, UK and Germany. In refining, delivering around $1 billion of further earnings growth over the next few years from our business improvement plans and digital operations.

In lubricants, increasing growth market exposure and premium lubricants, while diversifying into adjacent market spaces and DV products. In petrochemicals, selectively investing in attractive and growing market developing technologies to lead the market in circularity as with BP Infinia.

Across the Downstream, we have a strong track record of underlying earnings growth, delivering more than $5 billion of earnings growth over the last five years. Looking forward, we have a clear strategy with a focused activity set that underpins the growth momentum to 2021. This progress in the Upstream and Downstream gives us the confidence that we are on track to deliver our 2021 group targets.

We are staying disciplined with our capital and maintaining annual organic capital spend within a $15 billion to $17 billion range. We remain confident that return on average capital employed will exceed 10% by 2021, applying conditions. On divestments, we have now announced $9.4 billion since the start of 2019 of the $10 billion package, which we now expect to increase to $15 billion by mid 2021.

Net debt fell by $1 billion in the fourth quarter and with further proceeds received, we expect net debt to continue to decline and gearing to move toward the middle of the range of 20% to 30% through this year, assuming recent average oil prices.

In summary, strong operational momentum is driving growing free cash flow. We remain confident in delivering the 2021 free cash flow targets and divestment proceeds are expect to continue to reduce net debt and gearing. Taken together, this underpins our announcement today of an increase in the dividend to $0.105 per share and our ongoing commitment to sustainably growing distributions to shareholders over the long term.

Let me now hand over to Bernard who will conclude today's presentation.

Bernard Looney -- Chief Executive, Upstream

Thanks, Brian. I'm conscious I'm another voice in the room today and I won't talk for long. But I wanted to be here for three reasons. First, it's been quite a year for BP and another strong year of strategic delivery and progress against the targets we have laid out for 2021. I'm really proud of where BP is today. We're in excellent shape.

Secondly, it's a time of change. Tomorrow is my first day in the job, an opportunity I never foresaw 20 years ago when I joined BP, but an opportunity I'm obviously very excited about. I look forward to talking and meeting with many of you in the coming weeks, months and years.

And, of course, Bob is stepping down as Chief Executive today. I want to personally acknowledge Bob and all that he has done for BP, as well as the support he has given me over the years. In many ways, BP wouldn't be the company it is today were it not for Bob and the leadership he has shown over the past decade. He leaves BP with a strong foundation governed by a set of values and behaviors that define who we are and competing again with real strategic momentum and a focus on growing value. I have some big shoes to fill.

As you are also aware, Brian has elected to retire and Murray is set to take over at the start of July. Brian has been the key architect behind BP's financial framework and the progress we have made in this respect. I'm delighted, he is staying on through the middle of the year and supported the transition. And we will have a chance to acknowledge Brian in the coming months.

The third reason I wanted to join the call was reassurance. I want to reassure you of my personal commitment to some of our fundamental principles that are unchanged and will remain unchanged when we host our Capital Markets Day later this year. Our commitment to safe and reliable operations, our commitment to our investor proposition, growing sustainable free cash flow and distributions to shareholders over the long term, our commitment to maintaining a strong financial frame, including the absolute focus on deleveraging the balance sheet. And importantly, confidence in the delivery of our 2021 proxy free cash flow targets with capital discipline at its core.

I'll talk more about this in my broader ambition for BP going forward next week. And beyond that, we will start to work toward hosting the Capital Markets Day. We have a lot to do to get ready for that.

In the meantime, let me close by thanking Bob again for all he has done for this company. Bob, we will miss you.

Thank you for listening. I'm going to leave you in the capable hands of Bob, Brian and Craig to host the usual Q&A session. And I look forward to talking with many of you on the 12th of February.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Craig Marshall -- Group Head of Investor Relations

Okay. Thank you, again everybody for listening. Good morning. We're going to turn to questions-and-answers. As usual, if you can limit your questions to no more than two, so everybody gets a chance to ask. On that note, let's take the first question from Lydia Rainforth at Barclays. Good morning, Lydia.

Lydia Rainforth -- Barclays -- Analyst

Thank you, and good morning. And Bob, thank you to you as well. I've two questions, if I could. And the first one, if I just think back over the last 10 years, [Indecipherable] period of safety improvement that you talked about, and then the modernization of BP. Are you surprised at how quickly the business was able to modernize and [Indecipherable] confidence that gives you about what can happen going forward?

And then the second question was a little bit more specific around the low carbon businesses that, obviously, we start to go back into. How do you think about whether BP can make money [Indecipherable] and deliver competitive returns? Is it a case of looking at cost of capital for those business is in a slight different way? Thanks.

Bob Dudley -- Group Chief Executive

Well, thank you, Lydia and thank you for all of your good questions over the years. Your first one about safety and modernization. I have to say, if you were in the company, it didn't feel like it was so quick, because it's really been -- it was many years of small changes, including shutting down our facilities around the world and turning them around and retooling things and getting the culture speaking up and measuring everything. I think -- I don't think it was that quick, but I think it was very, very thorough and I think it's now firmly embedded in the culture.

And then with modernization, I mean, I do think we've very early on embraced, I mean, sort of big words out there, big data, but we really did begin working with some great third parties to work on the big data, which also combines, of course, with safety, but also optimization of reservoirs and how we produce all kinds of things. And this has been steady and it's accelerated in the second half of this last decade. So, thanks.

I think we do have a culture that is firmly got to tie on safety and always thinking about how to modernize things.

On the low carbon side, we've made some big steps. We always, even through the Gulf of Mexico, retained our wind business, retained -- and began the biofuels businesses, we did move out of solar for a while. And in some ways, it's remarkable that we kept not only some of the businesses, but all the talent around low carbon. I think -- I hear people say, well, you only invest 3% of your capital on low carbon. But this is where I think it would be good for many of you as you think about these business models like the one at Lightsource BP, which is 50-50 BP with Lightsource acquiring and taking from one country to 10 countries and has attracted somewhere between $5 billion and $7 billion of capital in that business and we taken it around the world.

And you look at the economics of that, I use solar, for example, in our operations, which means we replace maybe burning gas that can be sold molecules for the country we're in. So it's a -- you have to look at sort of corporate economics around it. And I think we get better and better and better and more efficient. BP Bunge has got a great future. The combinations in Brazil, 11 mills in a country that we'll use the ethanol and the sugar for all kinds of things. So I think you're right, there has to be good return on capital on it, but let me ask Brian to add to that.

Brian Gilvary -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, no, I think that's a good summary, Bob. And what I'd say, Lydia, the way we think about it at the moment is we will have in some respects, just like we've done through every energy transition, as we're moving into new products and new sources of value, we may do some of that off balance sheet, which is what you've seen around Lightsource BP and BP Bunge in terms of what we're doing -- BP Bunge in terms of Brazil. Equally things will come back on to the balance sheet, at which point where we think there is a viable business going forward. There is no question, we've seen a rapid move in the market over the last three or four years.

Solar now is very economic and you can see that we will continue to see the investments in smaller ventures, which will give us all sorts of information about how this energy market will transform. And I'd also remind you, for example, wind is currently on balance sheet, sits inside our books and is very economic, and makes a good return with the tax credits that come with it in the United States. So I think it's looking for things which are complementary to what we do and moving things both off and on balance sheet as we go forward. But I think it's a great time. As Bernard steps in, I think it's a really exciting opportunity for us in terms of what some of those opportunities might look like.

Lydia Rainforth -- Barclays -- Analyst

Thank you very much.

Craig Marshall -- Group Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Lydia. We're going to take the next question from Alastair Syme at Citi. Alastair?

Alastair Syme -- Citigroup -- Analyst

Good morning. Thank you, everyone. Couple of questions. One on the BPX business. You previously talked about $1 billion of free cash flow up from this business by 2021. So I'm just trying to figure out what the 2019 baseline is in that and how it gets bridged? If you could help split between synergies and growth. And my follow-up is really just to ask about Mauritania-Senegal, there's a lot of exploration work in 2019. So I just wanted to get a status of where that asset is and when should we expect the next project to mature to FID? Thank you.

Brian Gilvary -- Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Alastair. So I'll just pick up the first question around BPX. Everything is on track in terms of the $1 billion of free cash by 2021. Activity we've ramped down in the Haynesville as we've ramped up in the Eagle Ford and Permian as more takeaway capacity comes through. The synergy number, we'd now expect to be significantly higher than we first set and I think, as I already laid out for you, we're over 3 times the level we thought we'd be at this point in terms of 2019. But everything is on track and the great thing about our new position, we've now pretty much sold out of all of the gas assets, which is what you saw come through as the final impairment charge that we saw around those packages. There is one small package left to do. But pretty much everything is an [Indecipherable] around that.

The focus now for Dave and the team is absolutely on the oil business. And everything we see, gives us confidence in that $1 billion, but that's absolutely a promise that you should expect to see delivered next year. And of course we have the flexibility through this year as to how we ramp activity up depending on what the price signals are that we see from the marketplace. And it's worth just pointing out that on the gas side, we've seen something like a 40% drop across the sector in the gas rig count year-on-year and about 25% of all the gas you see in the United States comes from associated oil and that's started to taper off a little bit at the back end of last year, but we will be able to ramp that activity up as opportunities arise.

Alastair Syme -- Citigroup -- Analyst

Brian, can I just ask if the business -- if you strip out the acquisition cost, if it was free cash positive in 2019?

Brian Gilvary -- Chief Financial Officer

We wouldn't normally give you that specific level of detail, Alastair, but we'll come back to you before the end of the call, but we don't normally provide that. It's a choice because it will ultimate the capital. We did ramp capital down in 2019 to somewhere around about $2 billion that we talked about. At 3Q, we were planning on something around close to $2.5 billion. But I think, it would be too early. All the synergies will come through this year given where the run rate was as we exit this year and now we're expecting synergies somewhere close to $400 million. So I would anticipate it will certainly be $1 billion surplus next year, but we wouldn't normally give specific guidance around '19.

Bob Dudley -- Group Chief Executive

And Alastair, this is Bob. On Mauritania-Senegal, those of you who know this project, it's clearly got the potential to be a long-term large integrated LNG business with tens [Phonetic] of TCF of gas have been discovered. The FID, which we announced in December '18 is in place. The interstate cooperation agreements between the two governments of Senegal and Mauritania has been ratified. The unitization has been ratified and the sales and purchase agreement for the LNG should be coming along really any time now. And the -- so Phase 1 in execution. The planned phases 2 and 3, which are progressing through their optimization right now. So that project is on track. I've got a lot of faith in it.

Alastair Syme -- Citigroup -- Analyst

Great. Thank you very much.

Craig Marshall -- Group Head of Investor Relations

Okay. Thanks, Alastair. We'll take the next question from Os Clint at Bernstein. Os?

Oswald Clint -- Sanford C. Bernstein -- Analyst

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Yeah, perhaps first question, I just wanted to ask about the dividend. I guess, I walked away from 3Q thinking gearing levels above 30% is a tough level to talk about the dividend hike in terms your Board meeting. So I just wondered if you could share a bit more color about what happened in this quarter's meetings surrounding the dividend? And is it really just confidence in the 2021 delivery, which Brian has actually spoken to this morning. But have you really interrogated all of the assumptions that underpin Upstream and Downstream delivery here? Because obviously there are some other companies out there that get 12 months away and start to worry about macro affecting their kind of end period targets. That's the first question.

And then secondly -- and thank you very much, Bob, for all your time over the last couple of years. I wanted to ask you, as we think about the value proposition with the Reliance Downstream marketing venture now from here, if you could just, perhaps reflect on the Upstream Reliance deal, I guess you did it almost a decade ago. If that deal delivered everything you thought it would, if anything went wrong or slower and if there's any lessons learned that we should take from that and kind of transplant into the Downstream venture? Thank you.

Bob Dudley -- Group Chief Executive

Thanks, Oswald. Our partnership with Reliance has been great. I mean, I made no secret about the fact that I was disappointed really with the Indian government at that time for not sort of following through on, what I would call, the market gas pricing, which was clearly part of the contract. So it took some patience and perseverance. However, we've since gone out and found more gas around there. We just shut down the production facilities in D6 to be able to bring on now shortly March or April, the new production for the satellite fields around it. So significant production will come back on stream. So that's all been really well-engineered and cost-effective program.

I think for the lessons learned there, and I remain very optimistic about India as a country where you can argue that growth. But roughly 6% growth, I think, in one of the largest countries in the world, just beginning to travel. In many ways, we look at the Downstream JV as not just one on liquid fuels, but also mobility. We'll take all the things that we're working on electrification of vehicles, as well as liquid fuels, marketing convenience, marketing with a great partner, who has all this wire broadband it up, so that it will be fast and quick. A lot of efficiencies because Reliance is quite a talented company as well. So we'll rebrand it. It will be called Jio-BP, which I'm told in Hindi means long life BP. But it's a combination of course of the two companies. The commitment is there. We should close that deal here in the first half of the year.

Brian Gilvary -- Chief Financial Officer

And then coming back to the question on dividend, Os, I mean, I think a lot's changed between 3Q and 4Q around uncertainty in terms of the outlook, vis-a-vis balance sheet. I think, firstly to start with, we laid out, you know, the target in 2017 out to 2021 that had significant surplus free cash that's unified $6 billion over and above the $8 billion dividend that we have today. And we moved on the dividend, as part of that strategy in 2Q '18. So we're in the sort of the right postcode in terms of timing around dividend. The uncertainty around 3Q, I think what we've seen through the fourth quarter is a major de-risking of the uncertainty around balance sheet, which investors have said quite clearly too, is they're looking for us to de-risk the balance sheet. And I think the combination of a strong set of earnings in 4Q, strong operating cash in 4Q, we've now announced $9.4 billion of the $10 billion package that we said we'll be doing over '19 and '20. So as a year -- a year early and only $2.8 billion of cash came in around that package in 2019, so the balance you'd expect -- the majority of the balance with some payments out to 2021 to come through in 2020. We have also announced the further package of $5 billion, which we expect to announce by the mid-2021. Capex is at the low-end of the range. Net debt came down by over $1 billion in the fourth quarter. And one of the important measures was gearing came down from 31.7% at 3Q down to 31.1% in spite of $2 billion of impairments associated with some of the Lower 48 gas sales, just shy of $2 billion. So I think all of the outlook look far more positive. The link back to macro we worry less about. If you remember what we laid out in 2017 was a $55 a barrel Brent real. So we've been in the sort of $60, $65 range, we'll come back to that in terms of what the macro outlook looks like. There is no question, Coronavirus, I suspect will impact demand this year. We're currently seeing for the year, something around 300,000 barrels a day to 500,000 barrels a day impact on demand growth that we were looking at around 1.2 coming into this year and of course that will unfold as the year progresses. It may be more or less than that, but that would be our current estimations. And then the question will be whether OPEC balances or not. But just reflecting on the last 10 years, I mean, it's sort of relevant, I think, vis-a-vis Bob's tenure, we've dealt with oil prices that have gone from $100 a barrel to $28 a barrel. So we have the flexibility to react what we laid out for you in '17, was the strategy out to 2021 where we'd be able to manage the downsides and the upsides.

In the last two or three quarters, certainly through last year, we had the benefit of upside in oil prices. Oil prices may stay around $55 in the prompt right now given what we're seeing around Coronavirus, but they may regrow back by the end of the year. But I think we'll see how that plays out. But from our perspective, there is no question, now you can see, probably somewhere in the range of $7 billion to $9 billion of cash from divestment proceeds coming through this year. If you think about the balance of $6.6 billion of the $9.4 billion, we've already announced, say 40% of the balance of the $5 billion to come through, maybe this year, it sort of says the backdrop is positive and we've got growing free cash flow out to 2021 and [Indecipherable]. So I think when we look to that in the round, especially the strong set of 4Q results and the further $5 billion package that we announced was sufficient to justify the dividend move now.

Oswald Clint -- Sanford C. Bernstein -- Analyst

Excellent. Thank you. Thank you, both.

Craig Marshall -- Group Head of Investor Relations

Okay, thank you, Os. We'll take the next question from Irene Himona. Irene, good morning.

Irene Himona -- Societe Generale -- Analyst

Good morning. Thank you. And Bob congratulations on a job well done and all the best for the future. So, I had two questions. First of all, 2019 reserve replacement, 67%. I wanted to ask, is this metric as relevant to BP these days as it used to be? Are you striving consciously to replace reserves in a world where there is an energy transition and we are looking at peak oil at some point? So how should we think of BP's exploration effort and future reserve replacement ambitions?

And then my second question for Brian, so in Q4, underlying tax 27% and for the full year, 35.5%, so well below your guidance, and indeed as we saw in Q3, well below your expectations. And I think you attribute that in the press release to lower deferred tax. Can you just help us understand what were the key drivers, let's say, the key unanticipated drivers that led to such a discrepancy between your expectations and the actual for the year? Thank you.

Brian Gilvary -- Chief Financial Officer

So, maybe if I just take the tax question first, it was indeed deferred taxes, and actually in Q3, remember we talked about, we were expecting taxes to be very high. The big change is the mix. And if you look at it, yeah, we just gone now and look, what do we think the tax will look like for 2020, of course we've got big swings in profit mix in terms of Downstream to Upstream, and then within the Upstream, depending on what prices are doing.

So it's really hard to try and come up with an estimate ahead of time. We started to give guidance along the lines we did when we did the Abu Dhabi deal because of course the high tax barrels that come with that, which moved our overall tax rate up from a long-term historic level of about 32% to something north of 40%. We've done the roll-up now for next-gen. We've tried to give you guidance here that it's somewhere probably below 40% next year. I would say the range about where we've actually come out this year, around 35%, 36% to 40% is a sort of good range number. But there is such a huge swing, Irene, in terms of the balance of profits between Upstream and Downstream and the tax characteristics of those. The big difference in 4Q was really around deferred taxes, specific assets that roll forward. And of course, you've also got the impacts of some of the impairments as well that come through that move the tax number around. But even at the end of 3Q, we wouldn't have anticipated tax to be as low as it has come through in the fourth quarter.

Bob Dudley -- Group Chief Executive

Thanks, Brian. And thank you, Irene. Thank you for your comment as well. On reserve replacement ratio, we have focus for some time now and value over volume, but a year or so ago we removed reserve replacement ratio from our compensation metrics. Over the last five years, we've had a rolling average of 97% in terms of reserve replacement ratio, this last year 67%, a little lower. We had fewer major development sanctions than typical in 2019 than we've had in the past. The reserves are still healthy. Our reserve production ratio, RP ratio still just around 14 years, but I think the idea of being driven for just reserve replacement ratio is not, how we will drive BP going forward. It doesn't mean we're not going to though add reserves. We still have a whole set of projects out going on. We can see till 2025, but I feel that it's the kind of reserves you add whether it's gas, advantage oil, advantage gas got to be a key and that's I'm sure will drive our project sanctions.

Irene Himona -- Societe Generale -- Analyst

Thank you.

Craig Marshall -- Group Head of Investor Relations

Thanks, Irene. We'll take the next question from Jon Rigby at UBS. Jon, good morning.

Jon Rigby -- UBS Investment Bank -- Analyst

Hi, good morning. Yeah. Thank you. And to drill down on that reserve replacement question little bit. I noticed exploration charge both the write-off of carry forward and also the activity in the quarter has been dropping. It looks now like a pattern maybe two to three years. So I just wondered, is that reflective of some strategic decision making around what you want to do around exploration.

And then the second question is you've had a couple of I think comparatively -- in comparative quarters some very good trading results or you don't call it out this quarter. But I do notice that your inventory run by RMI is quite high for 4Q in absolute terms and if relative to the oil price, very high. So I just wondered whether you able to characterize what you were doing and whether that is reflective of activity in the fourth quarter around trading. Thanks.

Brian Gilvary -- Chief Financial Officer

Okay, Jon, I'll take the trading question first. Yeah, RMI was driven up is actually by higher volumes that we were carrying through the year-end and by higher prices. So that's pretty much, and that will swing around depending on activity, but we were carrying higher volumes through the end of the year. In terms of performance of the business, it was a strong quarter for gas, it was a more -- probably below average certainly and below plan for the fourth quarter for trading for oil, which is really the big swings that we saw in the last sort of 10, 15 days of the quarter. But overall, for oil trading and gas trading, they both had record years in 2019 and certainly a strong set of results as we've seen in recent years and certainly over the last decade.

So a lot of things went in the right direction. Some quarters were stronger, some were weaker for each of them. But overall, it's been a busy year for the trading business. But the RMI activity was really about volumes, and it's about higher prices.

Bob Dudley -- Group Chief Executive

And Jon, you were asking -- yeah, drilling down on exploration. I mean, we are still clearly continuing to explore. We've drilled exploration wells this year, two of them in Egypt, Gulf of Mexico, four of them in Trinidad. We've had three announced discoveries so far this year. We've got whole plan of exploration going on forward. And in terms of FIDs, we see about 10 projects in '20 and '21 that we would consider FID coming down the pipe. We haven't announced which projects exactly, but they are spread across the world and go into the Gulf of Mexico, Trinidad and we've got in 20 [Phonetic] and then we've got about seven others that move around from Angola to the North Sea, Australia, Senegal, couple in the Gulf of Mexico, and maybe one in Egypt. So we will continue to explore. I'm not sure if that exactly got to your question.

Jon Rigby -- UBS Investment Bank -- Analyst

It was really just whether this is just a reoptimizing of risk as you sort of enter into the 2020s and kind of how you apply your capital to exploration. But I think that captures it. Thank you. And just also to add, my thanks to you for the past 10 years and good luck in the retirement.

Brian Gilvary -- Chief Financial Officer

Well, thank you, Jon. And I'll just add to that, to your point, yes, we will recharacterize exploration and risk and think about exploration combined with access, which often doesn't necessarily require exploration drilling. We've been steadily reducing our exploration now for a number of years and we will keep doing that. We'll focus a lot on, as you all know, ILX or Infrared-Let Exploration in our existing businesses focusing around where we already have the facilities most certainly. Thanks, Jon.

Jon Rigby -- UBS Investment Bank -- Analyst

Thank you.

Craig Marshall -- Group Head of Investor Relations

Okay.Thank you, Jon. We'll take the next question from Chris Kuplent at Bank of America. Chris?

Chris Copeland -- Bank of America -- Analyst

Thank you very much. And can I just echo Bob and Brian. Thank you for all your help over the years. Just two two quick questions. I hope the 2020 production outlook you've given, of course, our production will be impacted by disposals. But you already pointing at an underlying decline as well. And you were referring to low gas margin basins. Does that refer explicitly to BPX or others as well. So any bit of color would be would be helpful.

And secondly, a bit of a wider question. You said you completed the buyback program, what do you see the role of buybacks within your progressive distribution policy going forward. Thank you.

Bob Dudley -- Group Chief Executive

Okay, Chris, if I just take the first part of that, reported production, I think, we've said already today, you will see about 200,000, 250,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day that we've disposed out of the asset base. So you'll see that come through this year, which is why reported is lower. In terms of underlying you've got lower activity in Haynesville. So you think from a value of a volume perspective. That's a good thing. So the rig count stands, I think, just one rig or two rigs. I think it's about one rig now then Haynesville. So that will be lower underlying production.

There were lower volumes coming out of Trinidad to do with some infill wells we have and, of course, you've also got the impact of Raven being delayed out to the back end of this year from last year, which we would have anticipated as part of the in line growth this year. But they are the three major drivers of why the underlying number will be slightly down.

In terms of distributions, the buyback is now complete in terms of what the script that we've issued since the third quarter, 2017. So that was a big signal, which I probably should have alluded to earlier, having that also behind us. I mean there is two things which have helped with the balance sheet, there is completing the buyback, which I think there has been good. We promised to do that and we've done it. And the second thing, of course, is Deepwater Horizon payments are now down to below $1 billion a year -- around $1 billion a year post tax out to 2032, so that's taken a big piece of risk off the balance sheet.

In terms of further buybacks. I think all option is wrote within the financial frame, especially given where the equity value sit today. There is no question, that's an attractive proposition, but that's really one for the broader financial frame conversation with the Board as we progress through this year. And Bernard will lay out next week his ambition for the company going forward. But I think buybacks will always be an opportunity -- in terms of our armory of things we can do around distributions, especially when we think the equity value of the company is significantly over valued above where we see the market trading.

Chris Copeland -- Bank of America -- Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Bob Dudley -- Group Chief Executive

Thanks, Chris.

Craig Marshall -- Group Head of Investor Relations

Okay. Thank you, Chris. We will take the next question from Thomas Adolff at Credit Suisse. Thomas?

Thomas Adolff -- Credit Suisse. -- Analyst

Good morning. Two questions from me as well, please. Firstly, a few years ago you had a number of gaps in your Upstream portfolio, and they included the Permian and Brazil, and subsequently you filled them. I was wondering if you can give us an update on Brazil, it's gone quiet somewhat and whether you're overall happy with the portfolio you have today? Obviously, Suriname and Guyana seems to be getting quite hot.

And then secondly on Russia. Bob, you have a very long history working in Russia starting with Amoco then with TNK-BP, and then, of course, today with BP and Rosneft. And I understand that this partnership with Rosneft is very important to you and you emphasized the importance of partnerships and relationships on today's call.

And I'm not sure if Bernard is on the call for the Q&A, but if he is, I was wondering whether Bernard can talk to us about the strategic rationale to have this stake in Rosneft and what it brings to BP and whether it differentiates your investment proposition? Thank you.

Bob Dudley -- Group Chief Executive

Thomas, I'll comment on Brazil, and then Russia, and let Brian also add to that. So in Brazil, we've -- we're happy, we've got a very big integrated business now in Brazil. It's not only the exploration side, but we've got biofuels, Air BP, the jet fuel trading operations and supplying and working with a power plant there for the use of gas.

On the exploration side, we've got some good acreage yet to be drilled. We had first well back in the first quarter of '19, it was a disappointment. We've been very, very careful in terms of adding to that. I think that we'll see exploration. Not sure. We have stepped back from some of the programs here like the transfer of rights programs there, because it just looked pricey for us. So we're going to be very, very capital disciplined about what we're doing there. But it's obviously a great province for energy going forward.

On Russia. I'll just say, Russia is really important to BP. I'll let Brian give a perspective, so that, you know, it's not just mine [Phonetic] because Brian or Bernard is not here, although, of course, we've talked to Bern obviously over the years. To me, it is a great partnership. It's been a hard one and it's strategic, I think. It's got enormous optionality, not only just for the shareholding in Rosneft, but also the joint venture projects that we've worked with and are working and producing from with Rosneft. But, Brian?

Brian Gilvary -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. No, I mean, we've been in Russia for over 30 years. The current version of that looks very positive from BP's perspective. Rosneft is probably one of our deepest, most important strategic relationships. Bob has built that up over time. I was on the TNK Board myself for the best part of 10 years. So I know a lot about Russia, and the challenges and the opportunities, which have come with it.

I think -- we think about Russia strategically in terms of Rosneft and that relationship. You have to remember, because it's some -- I mean, I think there was some commentary at the weekend about linking this to climate change and to energy transition. I'd just remind people that Russia is signed up to the Paris Climate Accord. They are doing a lot in terms of the energy transition, they've also signed up to the UN Sustainability Goals, and they're one of the largest oil and gas provinces in the world.

So I think it is incredibly important for BP that we continue to deepen that relationship that we have today. And I think the things that Bob and the team have been able to do in terms of -- and with Bernard, the additional joint ventures we now have on the ground as BP in places like Taz [Phonetic] which are now generating revenues and production for us.

And I'd also say, while the ownership of Rosneft is an investment in the company and that pays us a dividend, that dividend underpins 10% of our own dividend and is very important for us going forward. So I think and than usual report, the idea that Rosneft will be non-strategic for us in this next decade. I've got absolutely no founding at all. And we just still see it as a very important relationship going forward. And I think I can probably say on the call, if Bernard was here, he was in Russia in the last few weeks to cement those relationships going forward.

Bob Dudley -- Group Chief Executive

And I would -- for those you and many of you maybe don't follow Rosneft, but it's worth looking at, because that company is transforming itself. It's a little bit like as TNK changed over the years. The emphasis on safety, efficiency, modernization, reductions of corrosion, base lining their flaring and greatly reducing their flaring, they are doing all the right things that you would expect. And so, I think it's -- it's a company that is slightly constrained because of the OPEC plus agreements. But they've got developments down the road, great projects ahead of it. And so, it's not just a passive investment. We work closely with them on all fronts.

Thomas Adolff -- Credit Suisse. -- Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Craig Marshall -- Group Head of Investor Relations

Okay. Thank you, Thomas. We'll take the next question from Jason Kenney at Santander. Jason?

Jason Kenney -- Santander -- Analyst

Hi. Good morning, and thanks for the opportunity. Well, all the best for your retirement. I'm looking forward to the book of your time associated with BP, should be fascinating if every year in embra, definitely [Indecipherable] is available. I've got a couple of questions. Firstly, what's happening in Iraq? I think the Kirkuk expansion plans have stalled. And any insights as to where you think that can go over the next five, 10 years would be interesting.

And then secondly on the recycling start-ups, the position you're taking with Unilever and Danone to look at recycling at plastics. What kind of scale do you think that can grow to? And over which geographies in the next decade or so. Thanks.

Bob Dudley -- Group Chief Executive

Thanks, Jason. I think I'll take you up on the V DRAM. I'm not sure about the book, I don't think I read through your book. But I'd like to say, I think there's a lot of things in your question there. So Kirkuk in Iraq. I would say Kirkuk is in hibernation for us, we've stopped -- we've done a lot of work there. It's a big field. It's in quite tricky geography and sort of stands between Northern Iraq or Kurdistan and Southern Iraq and the differences between the companies, to me someday Kirkuk will be some sort of key to solving some of the political or maybe being a union point politically but just not now for BP. The Southern fields Rumaila continue to operate safely with lots of vigilance there, we still have staff there and that's going fine. Rumaila is just a key field for the Iraqi government supplies, about 40% of the money to their treasury. But on Kirkuk, I think I would stay tuned, but it's going to be a long way I think.

Now on recycling, Brian, you are working with that?

Brian Gilvary -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes, sure. And I think it's, -- thanks for asking the question. Actually had a -- somebody from another chemical company talked to me recently about it, about how impressed they were with this, I mean this is a big breakthrough. It's a technology BP Infinia that processes polyester plastics particularly items that are difficult to recycle today and the consortium we put in place includes exactly companies like you've said to known Unilever, Britvic. The packaging recycling specialist is in there as well in terms of our plan and remind us in terms of the management recycling specialists in terms of dealing with the recycling side of this.

I think it's a massive opportunity, it's something like $25 million that we're putting into a plant in Naperville that will test out the technology and then we'll look in terms of full scale commercialization, optimization. I think it's a huge opportunity for us. It is that the pilot plant stage that we'll be looking to build this to sort of see if we can make this commercial, but I think in terms of, if you think about all the things we've talked about in the venture space, this is an example of a technology we developed in-house that could have major potential scale-up, but it's really too early to say at this point, but all the indications are very positive. And if you look at the consortium we've put together and the sort of brands that we're talking about and I think that will gives you an indication of just what the potential might look like.

So it's a great example of technology in action within the business. And coming from not the areas that we would normally talk about, but if you think about the circularity economy -- to underpin the circularity economy, that's a big part of it.

Jason Kenney -- Santander -- Analyst

Thanks.

Craig Marshall -- Group Head of Investor Relations

Okay. Thank you, Jason. I'll take you up on your DRAM as well. Let's move to Christian Malek at JPMorgan. Christine?

Christian Malek -- JPMorgan -- Analyst

Thanks, Craig. It's great to finally see the dividend raise and even better to see that's on a $55 per barrel breakeven for '19. So with that in mind, to what extent -- will be continuing to focus on delivering a lower cash breakeven to stay competitive within the macro frame that continues to be volatile and how should we think about the critical path to raise dividends further given you've chosen to raise even with the gearing is above 30% still.

Secondly, a question on scaling up new energies in capital investment, what I appreciate is much to look forward to [Indecipherable] presenting the policy [Phonetic] carbon-knife. I'm just not sure how to solve for that effectively working -- and investing more in non-oil energy solutions while gearing does remain so high. And with a higher dividend going forward, do you think BP has a capital frame to really drive a realistic plan to invest materially in clean energy or is wholly dependent on your success of divestments. So do we need a massive portfolio reshaping is basically what I'm asking. I'm sorry to make a third, apologies, but I just want to echo comments to thank you for your graciousness and humility in helping guide us through some very challenging times two qualities that are greatly, if I may be permitted to say while we still have, it would be great if you could share what were the lessons learned from the 10-year BP and advice it gives in new management team and this [Phonetic] community, especially concerns around the future fossil fuels continue to mount? Thank you.

Brian Gilvary -- Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Christian. So first on the dividend. And I think just to make it clear, it was a move in seeing the trajectory of the gearing coming down to the fourth quarter that allowed us to make the move. Gearing has stayed up where it was or even gone higher off the back of the equity write-offs. I think its going to be a more difficult decision. If you look through though something in the tune of $7 billion to $9 billion of cash coming through this year in deals that we're pretty much done or we're fairly confident we'll get done through this year on a risk basis, and the fact the CapEx, the bottom end of the $15 million to $17 million [Phonetic] range that we set for 2021, we have majorly de-risked the balance sheet coming into this year, which I think gave the Board the confidence to move the dividend the way we have in the fourth quarter.

The breakeven of $35 to $40 a barrel still holds true for 2021 in terms of the targets. Of course it moves toward $40 the more that we distribute now through dividends, of course that's a measure based on where -- how much dividend you paid out. So now we're paying out a high dividend, we're not issuing scrip you move toward the top end of that range, obviously, as we start to distribute. But now -- this year we will be somewhere around mid-'50s breakeven for the corporation. Remember, Deepwater Horizon, which was $19 billion of cash was paid out over the last four years, we've absorbed $10 billion or $10.25 billion purchase of BHP in total at $30 billion of cash over the last four years, and certainly the $10 billion over the last couple of years. I think we're in a very positive position vis-a-vis where the balance sheet is and the trajectory through the first and second quarter this year.

So I think that does give us confidence. 2021 looks well underpinned and we did premise that 2021 targets around further distribution to shareholders. So I think we have a much clear runway vis-a-vis the things that we can control, the thing we can control of course is the environment and as you saw through '15, '16, '17, we have a company that is flexible enough to deal with that in pretty much all the scenarios that you could sell to paying down.

Craig Marshall -- Group Head of Investor Relations

Thanks, Brian. And Christian thank you for your kind comments there and I'll, maybe just a few things to think about in terms of lessons and you all cover energy and oil and gas, which I think is one of the world's longest wavelength investment cycles. So that's what we are working in. And I think some of the things around that is because they are such long-term, they do, I do think of BP -- we do relationships, not transactions. Because it's essential in such a long wavelength business. Some lessons learned and you all will know this culture is critical in any company in almost any industry and, in our case safety, discipline around what we do and being a good partner, it's just really important and I think patience and perseverance in almost any difficult time step-by-step, there are no silver bullets and not allowing anyone to believe that there is a silver bullet in it. This is very important.

And I just noticed that today, one thing I'm always struck by in terms of investing, I always go back to the fundamentals and I would say right now, we're in a world where sentiment seems to be more important than the fundamentals and I think in reality always have to get back to the fundamentals, including in the new energy transitions and how we do it to maintain a successful long company that continues with its shareholder distributions. And one thing I always learned, I learned it the hard way actually in Russia, but all of us in the company, our shareholders ourselves, so we need to learn to make sure we spend the Company's money as if it's your money and shareholders, and that's a fundamental thing we've tried to drive in our own employees, but kind of rambling now Christian, so, next question.

Bob Dudley -- Group Chief Executive

And, Christian. Just to finish off on your question around capital frame. I think 2021 is underpinned. We've got $15 billion to $17 billion frame, toward the bottom end of that range now given the capital efficiency the Bernard and Marine, the team have been driving in the Upstream in particular and I think you'll see more to follow on that. Next week Bernard will come out with his ambition for the company of the next phase of what that will look like. That will then set a frame in a direction for probably a Capital Markets Day at the back end of this year where we then talk about 2025 targets and what the capital frame looks like around that. But I think certainly without wishing to see [Indecipherable] I think more, you know, more of the same on capital discipline is almost certainly coming as he talks about the future.

Craig Marshall -- Group Head of Investor Relations

Great, thank you. Christian, thanks for the questions. We'll take the next question from Martijn Rats at Morgan Stanley. Martijn?

Martijn Rats -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Yes, hi, hello and also for me a congratulations with the successful and very long-standing career and I appreciate all the guidance over the last couple of years. I had two very short questions. Can you brief on the Raven project, I understand it's a year delayed, but -- could you elaborate a little bit sort of why that is, because this was a project that was sort of reiterated to be reiterated to be on track for start-up in 2019. So a bit more color would be appreciated. And the second thing I wanted to ask is about the US. So BPX the 4Q '18 over 4Q '19 still showed about a 10% decline in production cost per barrel. And I was wondering if you could comment on your ability to continue to drive cost there or whether we should expect the return of some inflation in the US shale patch, that'll be much appreciated. Thank you.

Bob Dudley -- Group Chief Executive

Thanks, Martijn. And maybe just on Raven, I know if Bernard was here, he would tell you how disappointed he is and the team are, and it's couched in the, what has been a really good run three or four years of projects coming in below cost on budget and in some cases ahead of schedule. This one is delayed -- this delayed significantly and it's pretty much a function of some corrosion issues that we've picked up as part of the commissioning. It's going to take longer to resolve than we would have liked Bernard himself has talked about it and how this a point of view is in where we are nevertheless it won't impact 2021 which I think is important it's going to affect 2020, obviously. But we should be able to get full ramp by as we commission toward the end of this year into 2021. So the 2021 targets are underpinned but it's effectively around some corrosion issues around the installation that we have and the team have to deal with.

And then in terms of BPX activity, as I said earlier, we are on track in terms of delivering $1 billion of surplus free cash. We'll give you a bigger update on the first quarter around where we are around the next phase of synergies. There is no question that we'll see more costs, cost reductions coming in as part of that synergy number. But I think 1Q will give us a chance to give you an update more fully on where we are with BPX, now that we've got activity ramping in terms of the Eagle Ford and Permian, less so in Haynesville, as I said earlier.

Martijn Rats -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

All right. Thank you.

Craig Marshall -- Group Head of Investor Relations

Okay. We'll take the next question from Lucas Herrmann at Exane. Lucas?

Lucas Herrmann -- Exane -- Analyst

Good afternoon --good morning. [Indecipherable] Bob and Brian, just to reiterate the comments of others. Thanks very much Bob to help guide these persistent over the years. Two modest questions if I might. The first was just typically this time if you could give us a better idea of what's going on in the fuels retailing business where in a profit might have been so really just if you could disclose what the full year break out of numbers in that business were. And secondly, I just wondered if you could comment on the LNG trading business at all, not least given the stock report and incremental volumes that you'll start to see the extent to which those volumes and the volumes are effectively underpinned by forward sales into end markets. That's it. Thank you.

Bob Dudley -- Group Chief Executive

Yes, so in terms of LNG, you know we ran the portfolio it's about two-thirds equity, one-third merchant or commercial, no significant equity volumes to come on this year other than the ramp up of existing LNG that we have. So, it's really around the short-term loans that we have. We've got some exports coming out of the United States if they flow at these levels. I think what you're going to see in the first half of this year coming out of mall winter Lucas in the States, the prices going to remain pretty soft at the levels that we see today. We think that will clear up by the time we get to the sort of back-end of this year, so you'll start to see some underpinning on the gas price.

But I think we're pretty much held a position, which is that we were pretty breakeven. Third quarter we talked about, this been pretty bearish gas prices certainly through 2020 and the question is, do you start to recover in 2021 or 2023 given the two effects of gas being backed up in the United States and big LNG projects around the world coming on where we will be moving some of those volumes to our merchant business. But I think you're LNG is all about in terms of LNG trading, it's all about the optionality and making sure that we retain those options with different price points that allows the team to optimize the way they have and had a very successful year last year.

Brian Gilvary -- Chief Financial Officer

And thanks, Lucas. A few things on the Downstream, we've had a good track record of growth. 2019 earnings were $2.7 billion, pre-tax returns of more than 30%. Plans are to grow earnings by another greater than $1.4 billion from 2016 to 2021. I mean, really our focus is on the differentiated retail. It's the most material part of the fuels marketing. We try to develop strong market positions, the brand, the distinctive offers. The retail network has grown quite a bit. We've had $1.2 billion in non-fuel gross margin as well. We're up over 10 million customers a day. We've got a 20% premium fuel volumes growth since the active fuels were launched last spring or in the spring of 2016.

We have built up these strategic convenience partnerships like we have M&S in the UK and others in Germany and the Netherlands 1,600 of those by the end of '19. We've got 1,250 retail sites in new markets such as Mexico, Indonesia and China. We've got over 520 in Mexico and more than doubled the volumes in 2019. So these are working well. Mexico has really been a success as that -- despite what you think about what's happening in the country that has been very successful. And then of course in December of '19, we signed the agreements with Reliance to form that big fuels retail and aviation JV across India which immediately on closing will provide about 1,400, 1,500 sites that we hope to grow to 5,500 across the highways of India over the next five years. So I could go on with things --

Lucas Herrmann -- Exane -- Analyst

Sorry to interrupt and to push. In terms of the financials coming out bottom line either -- what typically -- would have broken out a number of this year or the performance of the retail business as in split from refining, I think last year it was $2.8 billion of EBIT. Do you have a number for this year, or should I talk to IR later?

Brian Gilvary -- Chief Financial Officer

Lucas, you can pick it up later. But I think there is continued underlying growth in EBIT. It's coming out of places like Mexico where we are still growing the new market entry there. But we'll come back -- we'll circle back at the end of the call. The actual figure at the moment around 2019, I think the cumulative now is some think north of $0.5 billion for this year but will need to come back and confirm that which will be through IR.

Lucas Herrmann -- Exane -- Analyst

Okay. That's great. Thank you and thanks for everything, again.

Craig Marshall -- Group Head of Investor Relations

Thanks, Lucas. Okay. We'll take the next question from Peter Low at Redburn. Peter?

Peter Low -- Redburn -- Analyst

Hi, thanks for taking my question. You're guiding to capex being at the lower end of the $15 billion to $17 billion range again in 2020. Is that a decision you've taken based on the current commodity price environment. And can you perhaps give us some color on why the flex has come from, i.e., why have you chosen to the rephase or the first, you could have done? Thanks.

Brian Gilvary -- Chief Financial Officer

I mean I think actually look, this is more of the same in terms of Bernard and Upstream, if you remember when we set up 2021 targets, Upstream had a range of $13 billion to $14 billion of capital, which, you know it's always hindsight of wonderful thing, but back in '17 we would have anticipated by now would be at the top end of the range. What we've been doing in the Upstream particular is continuing to drive capital efficiency. Capex in '19 was down to below 12 billion, in upstream set against 13, 14 [Phonetic] we set, it's about capital efficiency. I think as you see Bernard go from Chief Executive Upstream to Chief Executive Company, you're going to see more drive on capital efficiency. I think Bernard would say, we will see it is more that can be done in the Upstream, so the actual summation of where we've come out even having absorbed the capital now for BHP and the BHP BPX transaction that we did that will comfortably be down toward the bottom end of the range.

And in some respects that's not so much set by the macro. It's a function of where we are in terms of the sort of 12 quarters into the 20 quarter strategy and it creates some flexibility from a risk perspective, if we see a series downside to the oil price over the next six to nine months, depending on what happens with Coronavirus. So I think it's the, it's a conservative assumption. I think it's the right assumption. But we are continuing to see continued deflation in the Upstream as we go forward.

Peter Low -- Redburn -- Analyst

Very clear. Thank you.

Craig Marshall -- Group Head of Investor Relations

Peter. Thank you we'll take the next question from Henry Tarr at Berenberg. Henry?

Henry Tarr -- Berenberg -- Analyst

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. And just a couple, so one back on the refining environment. I think you talked about the improving of the underlying environment hopefully through the rest of this year. What would you need to see for that to come through, I guess IMO is not yet played out as somewhat I thought, and it looks to be kind of too much capacity currently in both pet chems and refining. So how confident are you that we'll see an improvement there over the coming quarters. And then just secondly on divestments given the challenging environment and how easy how it been to strike deals and I guess you've got the further $5 billion as we look into 2021. Are there any sort of areas specifically where you're looking -- where you think there is interest around divestments. Thanks.

Brian Gilvary -- Chief Financial Officer

So let me pick-up the divestments first because a big chunk of it was -- the purchase of BPX is BHP assets and the selling off of BPX is all dry gas. The difficult assets to sell has been the Lower 48 gas assets were pretty much now done with those. And there's been less issues in selling the balance of midstream downstream upstream assets, certainly upstream in terms of oil-linked as you've seen in the North Sea in the fourth quarter. So less of an issue with those. We've now done 9.4 of the 10 is announced. The balance will come very shortly. And then we've got another $5 billion package. The $5 billion package is going to be a mix of upstream, downstream midstream. So it's across the piece.

And there'll be some portfolio options in terms of less price sensitive things that we can do inside that $5 billion, so very confident. And I think look our M&A team, I think their track record now must be somewhere up to $75 billion to $80 billion, if not $85 billion of disposals over the last decade. So we have a pretty hot, very well tuned machine and it's been particularly well tuned through 2019 as it had to deal with some of the private equity that we had to deal with in terms of Lower 48 gas. That won't be an issue I believe going forward.

In terms of refining margins, actually, we are starting to see more pulp kick-in. I mean it's now active this year, takes effect March 1st. It came into enactment this year. People after all had to do deal with scrubbers use, 0.5% sulfur or switch to LNG in terms of its use. But I think that will underpin margins this year and we're seeing that. You're going to have to start to see some of these stocks clear out. One of the things, particularly, you need to be paid of course is the light-heavy spread and we will see the benefits of that effort whiting where it's up over $20 a barrel and I think it average somewhere close to $12 a barrel last year or certainly below $12 a barrel. So I think that will from our position is a BP's position in terms of light-heavy will help, but you're right. There are some stocks to clear out before we start to see that recovery but MARPOL definitely in terms of distillate is underpinning the market right now.

Bob Dudley -- Group Chief Executive

I think I would add as a footnote. As we look at the scheduled turnarounds around the world and where our refineries are, we have very few coming up and others do. So we'll have a -- it looks like a pretty straight through period of uptime.

Brian Gilvary -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, that's actually, but that's really important point. 2Q is going to be a high turnaround quarter I think for the industry. We've done most of ours in the last two years. So we will have a relatively low turnaround year this year.

Henry Tarr -- Berenberg -- Analyst

Great, thanks. And I wish you both the best of the future.

Craig Marshall -- Group Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Henry. Okay. We'll take the next question from Jason Gammel at Jefferies. Jason?

Jason Gammel -- Jefferies LLC -- Analyst

Thank you, Craig. And Bob, may I just add my best wishes to you for all your future endeavors. Bob, you've taken over essentially leadership on BP's strategy for the energy transition and I was hoping you can just leave us with some thoughts on what you think BP needs to do to be successful in the energy transition and maybe even any high-level milestones that we should be looking for out of BP?

And then my second question is on the divestiture. The incremental divestitures that were announced today. Just give us some details on that. And I know you don't want to identify specific assets. But does carbon intensity of the assets play a large role in your decision on whether to put them up for sale or not really kind of thinking particular Canadian oil sands.

Brian Gilvary -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. I'll just pick up the second part of that question to say that value of volume is what determines everything we do in strategy. We already deploy a carbon price across our whole portfolio. When we look at investments that's taken into account, it's $40 a ton and we stress test up to $80 a ton. So in some respects, that's already built into our valuation as we think the carrying value of these assets going forward. So I think I won't specifically point to any asset which you wouldn't expect me to, but it is very much driven by strategy and think about value over volume in terms of portfolio going forward.

Bob Dudley -- Group Chief Executive

Yes. Jason, thank you very much for your remarks and thanks for some you say in the paper. It is gratifying. I think the thing as we go forward, we have completely reestablished what we're doing in the low carbon world. Lightsource BP as a business model is quite unique and different that I think has clearly grown and been successful and it attracts a lot of capital that we might not see coming into oil and gas projects and I don't think we get the credit for that. It's going to continue to grow. I think BP Bunge is another one, it's the business models that are different. I think in some of the low carbon in new alternative energies that I think you'll see have done and I think you will see us continue to do those. So they might require a little bit different way of evaluating them for you as you model things.

I think the combinations of our business is the integration of our business. It will be something that I think you will have to work with us on how we model those going forward. I think the returns are important, but many businesses go through phases and they change their business character over-time and so it's getting the right pace of doing that going forward. Mobility is remarkably changing your electrification of car fleets and of course, there is going to be a huge amount of liquid fuels used in heavy vehicles and automobiles and air transport, but mobility electric mobility is certainly coming to a city near you, I think the combination of what we're doing with ultra-fast charging and the liquid fuels in the convenience marketing is a key here and I think you've heard -- doesn't like me to say it, we actually make more money off of a cup of coffee in London than we do a tank of fuel, in terms of margin. So it's how we are using our assets differently in our real estate. But I think is going to be part of this future as well.

Partnerships will form some new ones, some interesting ones. You've seen us talk about the creation and the goal of five unicorns and we think we have some of the technologies that can be able to do that, not necessarily in low carbon but just our capabilities in terms of many things like acoustics going forward. I think you may see us move into. We're very intrigued with offshore wind, for example, we obviously think we have offshore capability to get involved with that. You'll probably see that. We didn't for many years quite frankly, because the gearboxes were in the salt zones and now they are building in the size of the Eiffel Tower and the rather that salt and I think there is a lot of different things in some of the other companies are doing it as well that you'll see us pursue. Stay tuned, Jason.

Craig Marshall -- Group Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Jason. Okay. We're going to take the penultimate question from Pavel Molchanov from Raymond James. Pavel?

Pavel Molchanov -- Raymond James & Associates -- Analyst

Thanks for taking the questions. First in relation to the ESG topic. Several of your European peers are starting to include Scope 3 emissions in their internal targets, you have not historically wanted to do that, I'm curious if you might be rethinking that stance. And then secondly, as it relates to reserve bookings, you mentioned the small number of project FIDs in 2019 as the reason for sub 100% replacement. Should we anticipate a revival of FIDs this year as then means of getting a replacement back above 100%?

Bob Dudley -- Group Chief Executive

Well, I'll make a comment Pavel on Scope 3 emissions. We do report Scope 3 emissions, admit that we don't, but we do. But Scope 3 emissions is become a real short hand thing when actually you would look into it and you look at the 6 European oil companies everyone defines it differently. So I think as a starting point, it would help if we all got a common definition on that, but we will define and get clear how we measure it and I would expect that, but it's too short hand it has been at least for me it's too short hand because it just mean so many different things to different people.

Brian, would you add to that and I'll come back.

Brian Gilvary -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. I mean just to that point, I mean probably there were 15, I can tell you this, the Chairman of the 100 group of 100 directors in the UK, there are 15 separate definitions within Scope 3 that you could look at around Scope 3 emissions. We've looked at it exhaustively over the last couple of years and there is not consistency across sectors and there's not consistency within sector. So I think we do need to get consistency on the merger going forward, but I think it will be premature to talk about what we will now do in the next phase ahead of burn its ambition that will lay out for the company next week. So I think there will be more to follow around the specifics of that on 12th of February. So I think we can -- if you're happy to leave until then, we will come back to it then.

Bob Dudley -- Group Chief Executive

And then on Pavel, reserve replacement ratios, we really have the five FIDs in 2019 in the Gulf of Mexico, Atlantis, Seagull, Azerbaijan, the Central East projects, Thunderhead South and our KG fields in India. And as we go forward, we see the ones -- the four or five in 2020 and 7 or 8 in '21. It's never a smooth line with reserve replacement ratios. They kind of move up and down. It's not something we're really emphasizing value over volume, so we don't really know whether it will be -- and I don't look at 67 or 70 as a big drop, because we have been measuring about 100% over the last five years. Not sure, but again, it's value over the volume.

Craig Marshall -- Group Head of Investor Relations

Okay. Thank you, Pavel. And we will take the final question from Bertrand Hodee. Thanks for being patient Bertrand.

Bertrand Hodee -- Kepler Cheuvreux -- Analyst

Thanks for taking my question, and congratulation Bob and Brian for all the good work and strong achievement at BP. I have two small question left. One on project delivery. So, Brian, I appreciate you to comment on the Egypt Raven delays. Can you give us an update on Tangguh Train 3 and [Indecipherable] Phase II export. When can we expect those to start up?

And the second question is related to the impact of divestment in your 2020 production. So, Brian, you mentioned 250,000 barrels per day of negative impact from divestment. Can you give us a share of US gas inside that number?

Bob Dudley -- Group Chief Executive

So, yes. In terms of projects, Tangguh expansion is on track. I think first production is something like 2021. So we'll come back to that at the end of this year in terms of how that looks. I don't have the other figures to hand in terms of [Indecipherable]. But as far as I know, everything on the project side is on track vis-a-vis what we laid out last year.

And then -- sorry, Bert, on your second question.

Bertrand Hodee -- Kepler Cheuvreux -- Analyst

So the second question was around the divestment impact on your upstream production in 2020. You mentioned 250,000 barrels per day of negative impact from divestments expected in 2020. I was wondering how much of inside that relates to US lower 48 onshore natural gas.

Bob Dudley -- Group Chief Executive

Yeah. Sorry. So the bulk of it will be natural gas equivalent. There is some assets that we sold off in the North Sea in terms of oil production, but the bulk of it will below 48 gas. Of course, that would be a negative cash right now, given where we see Henry Hub gas prices. So it doesn't really have an impact from a cash perspective.

Bertrand Hodee -- Kepler Cheuvreux -- Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Bob Dudley -- Group Chief Executive

Very good. Thank you, Bertrand. And Bertrand we will follow up with you after the call on the project specifically around those [Indecipherable]. But I don't think there are any issues around it.

Craig Marshall -- Group Head of Investor Relations

Okay. Thank you everybody for the questions. That's the end of the Q&A. I'm now going to hand over to Bob. But just before I do, on a personal note, Bob, it's been an absolute privilege to work for you. And I know, I speak on behalf of Investor Relations when I say that. And I'm sure that's echoed from the investment community. So thank you very much.

Bob Dudley -- Group Chief Executive

Well, thank you, Craig, and thank all of you on the call, who Brian and I work with so closely over the really many years here. I think rather than reflecting on the things that I often do at the end of the call, which is about safety, people and BP's culture and the strong portfolio of relationships. They are going to remain central to this company going forward. BP, I think has an enormously talented, motivated workforce. And it's what they do that makes BP a great company in my view.

And as for you all, our investors and our analysts. I think one of the cornerstones of our strategy has been this sort of steadfast focus on growing shareholder value with capital discipline. And admittedly, it took us a while to get on that track. But set against this backdrop of all the challenges and the volatility, we've done -- I think it's -- I think it's been good. I think we're delivering that investor proposition that many of you have challenges on over the years.

I met a great number of you all around the world. And quite frankly, I never failed to be impressed with your interest in the company and the industry, your knowledge, the challenge you have given us and the advice many times and then the support you've given us at BP. So you have my thanks. It has been a -- for me, a real privilege to work with you and a real pleasure, at least, most of the time. Some of those meetings were not that great, but most of the time there were few years there. So I hope you carry on with that same dialog with Bernerd and the team and he takes over with Craig and his terrific IR team.

This is a bit of a historic moment. because I'm sharing my very last meeting with you at BP, because when I walk out of this call, I'm going to go out to lunch with my team and I stepped down as CEO. So thank you all very much for sharing that.

Duration: 100 minutes

Call participants:

Craig Marshall -- Group Head of Investor Relations

Helge Lund -- Chairman

Bob Dudley -- Group Chief Executive

Brian Gilvary -- Chief Financial Officer

Bernard Looney -- Chief Executive, Upstream

Lydia Rainforth -- Barclays -- Analyst

Alastair Syme -- Citigroup -- Analyst

Oswald Clint -- Sanford C. Bernstein -- Analyst

Irene Himona -- Societe Generale -- Analyst

Jon Rigby -- UBS Investment Bank -- Analyst

Chris Copeland -- Bank of America -- Analyst

Thomas Adolff -- Credit Suisse. -- Analyst

Jason Kenney -- Santander -- Analyst

Christian Malek -- JPMorgan -- Analyst

Martijn Rats -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Lucas Herrmann -- Exane -- Analyst

Peter Low -- Redburn -- Analyst

Henry Tarr -- Berenberg -- Analyst

Jason Gammel -- Jefferies LLC -- Analyst

Pavel Molchanov -- Raymond James & Associates -- Analyst

Bertrand Hodee -- Kepler Cheuvreux -- Analyst

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